US embassy cable - 05MANILA4662

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANILA 004662 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, INR/EAP, INR/B 
NSC FOR H. MORROW 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PINR, RP 
SUBJECT: DEBATE OVER POSSIBLE CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES 
STEADILY HEATS UP 
 
REF: A. MANILA 4464 
 
     B. INR/EAP - MANILA 09/20/05 CLASS E-MAIL 
     C. MANILA 4140 
 
Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Joseph L. Novak for 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  The perennial debate over possible changes 
to the Philippine Constitution of 1987 is steadily heating 
up.  Jose De Venecia, the Speaker of the House, is pressing 
the matter forward in Congress, urging that the current 
bicameral, executive presidential system be changed into a 
parliamentary one.  Malacanang has indicated support for 
possible change, recently taking steps to form a 
"Consultative Commission" to look into the matter.  That 
said, President Arroyo is naturally not too keen to cut short 
her term or otherwise curb her powers to allow an executive 
prime minister to take over.  The Philippine Senate, which 
stands to be abolished under most proposals, remains highly 
suspicious of De Venecia's efforts.  Given the scrum that 
normally is Philippine politics, this debate will not be 
smooth and the idea that all parties will be on board at any 
time soon is a long shot.  When asked, Mission continues to 
make clear that political arrangements in the Philippines are 
for the people of the Philippines to decide.  End Summary. 
 
---------------------------- 
House Speaker Presses Debate 
---------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) The perennial debate over possible changes to the 
Philippine Constitution of 1987 is steadily heating up. 
(Note:  This debate often goes by the name "Charter Change," 
or more colloquially -- and perhaps with a nod to the 
debate's confusing twists and turns -- as "Cha-Cha."  End 
Note.)  Speaker of the House De Venecia, a long-time 
proponent of change, is pressing the matter forward in the 
House, urging that the current bicameral, executive 
presidential system be changed into a unicameral, 
parliamentary one.  De Venecia and his supporters argue that 
the current system has proven ineffective in meeting the 
Philippines' needs and a parliamentary system providing for 
longer terms in office would be more responsible in nature 
and less corrupt. 
 
3.  (SBU) At several times in recent years, De Venecia has 
come up with various, confusing formulations on what he sees 
as the way forward.  (Note:  We have been told that the 
Speaker's office prepared a draft Constitution clearly 
encapsulating his ideas a couple of years ago and we are 
trying to obtain a copy.  End Note.)  In a September 27 
address before the Manila Overseas Press Club, De Venecia set 
out a tangle of options, which basically range from:  Arroyo 
staying on until her term ends in 2010 but in a ceremonial 
capacity while an executive prime minister runs the country; 
to President Arroyo and a prime minister basically sharing 
power until 2010; to Arroyo and all House and Senate members 
stepping down in 2007, so a "fresh start" can be made with a 
newly elected parliament, etc.  (Note:  De Venecia has also 
indicated that he supports "federalism" as part of his 
Constitutional change plans.  He has not fully diagrammed his 
plans in this area, saying he wants to move forward with his 
proposal to form a parliament first.  At various times, De 
Venecia has also proposed other discrete changes to the 
Constitution, such as a provision specifying an "open door" 
for foreign direct investment and a provision punishing 
politicians who switch parties -- see ref b.  End Note.) 
 
4.  (U) De Venecia has made clear that he would like to see 
his proposals implemented via a "Constituent Assembly" of 
sitting legislators from both the House and the Senate. 
(Note:  Another option would be the holding of a 
"Constitutional Convention," which would involve the direct 
election of delegates by the public.  De Venecia believes 
this option would be too drawn out and expensive.  End Note.) 
 Under a proposed bill which was successfully voted out of a 
House Committee in March 2005, the House and the Senate would 
sit together and review the draft changes to the 
Constitution.  Upon three-fourths of support in the assembly, 
the changes would be approved and then subject to 
ratification in a national referendum. 
 
5.  (C) The Senate is vehemently against this proposal, 
believing that the Constitution makes clear that both the 
House and the Senate, meeting separately, have to approve any 
proposed changes by a three-fourths margin.  In reaction to 
the Senate's fierce opposition, De Venecia has recently come 
up with a complex formulation that would have the House and 
Senate meeting separately within a Constituent Assembly, but 
voting as one.  Even he has admitted that the Senate is 
unlikely to accept this new proposal.  Regardless of the 
problems his proposals face, De Venecia has made clear that 
he plans to press forward and to hold votes in the House in 
coming months as he seeks to make his dream of changing the 
system into a reality. 
 
-------------------- 
Malacanang Plays Coy 
-------------------- 
 
6.  (C) President Arroyo has often indicated that she 
supports Constitutional change as a way "to revitalize" the 
country, but she has not outlined her views on the matter in 
detail.  In addition, neither she nor her lieutenants have 
ever indicated that she would agree to cut short her term or 
curb her powers to ease the way for a parliamentary system. 
Arroyo, however, does not want to offend De Venecia, who is 
influential and recently came to her aid by helping quash the 
Opposition's impeachment complaint (ref c).  In light of 
that, Arroyo has made an effort to at least appear that she 
wants to work with De Venecia on possible change.  She has 
made a similar effort to appease former president Fidel 
Ramos, who also helped Arroyo during the recent political 
turbulence and has put forth a Constitutional reform plan of 
his own. 
 
7.  (C) When asked about Constitutional change by Acting 
Pol/C during a September 26 meeting, Gabriel "Gabby" Claudio, 
Arroyo's chief political adviser, averred that his boss 
"sincerely believes that changing the Constitution could help 
the country's economy and help heal its divisions."  He 
allowed, however, that obtaining the agreement of the three 
major institutions involved -- the House, the Senate, and 
Malacanang -- would take "months of work and might not be 
possible in the end."  He added that the President would 
continue to study options and planned to monitor House 
proceedings carefully.  Malacanang has recently set up via 
executive order a "Consultative Commission" meant to examine 
possible Constitutional changes.  The Commission is to have 
50 members of which 43 slots recently have been filled.  The 
members include well-known lawyers and other professionals, 
labor leaders, former diplomats, provincial leaders, etc. 
The Commission is mandated to provide Arroyo with its 
recommendations on possible changes by the close of 2005. 
 
-------------------- 
Senators Not Pleased 
-------------------- 
 
8.  (C) The Philippine Senate, which stands to be abolished 
under most plans currently on the table, remains highly 
suspicious of the proposals.  As a salve, De Venecia has 
proffered various formulations wherein senators might be able 
to extend their terms as members of a parliament, but he has 
made little progress in changing minds.  In a recent 
conversation, Senator Maria Anna Consuelo "Jamby" Madrigal 
told Acting Pol/C that she doubted that even three of the 
Senate's 23 members supported De Venecia's proposals.  Other 
senators have repeated the same breakdown to Acting Pol/C. 
Senators have made clear they will take the matter to the 
Supreme Court if the House presses ahead without Senate 
concurrence. 
 
9.  (C) Many senators -- and many political commentators -- 
have asserted that the Constitutional change debate has more 
to do with De Venecia's political ambition to be prime 
minister than any rational need to change the country's 
governing set-up.  De Venecia, who lost the presidential 
election in 1998, has denied that he wants to be prime 
minister, but not very convincingly.  In a body like the 
Senate, which has many members who harbor political ambitions 
of their own (Senators Roxas, Villar, Lacson, Pangilinan, 
etc., all want to lead the country), there is a clear 
disinclination to give a rival like De Venecia any opening. 
For Malacanang, the opposition of the Senate to the changes 
is fortuitous because it can point to it when pressed by De 
Venecia as to why his proposals are not moving forward. 
Nonetheless, the Senate does not want to appear to be a 
roadblock to change:  many senators have expressed support 
for the convening of a Constitutional Convention, as long as 
both the House and the Senate vote separately to approve its 
formation.  (Note:  So far, polls indicate that the public is 
not at all engaged on the matter of Constitutional change, 
but there is widespread interest in improving governance.  In 
light of this, most politicians want to take a forward 
position by favoring some sort of "change."  End Note.) 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
10.  (C) Given the scrum that normally is Philippine 
politics, this debate will not be smooth.  De Venecia is 
fully committed to changing the system and has promised to 
launch a major public relations campaign in coming months 
while the House moves forward on votes, which should keep the 
issue on a lot of front pages.  Malacanang, meanwhile, is 
clearly not going to press hard on the matter, though it 
wants to be seen as doing enough so as not to alienate De 
Venecia (or Ramos).  The Senate -- which has poor relations 
with the House and increasingly frayed relations with 
Malacanang (ref a) -- is unlikely to budge.  Given this 
situation, the idea that all parties will agree to changes at 
any point soon is a long shot to put it mildly.  When asked, 
Mission continues to make clear that political arrangements 
in the Philippines are for the people of the Philippines to 
decide. 
 
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JOHNSON