US embassy cable - 05ADDISABABA3443

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003443 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/28/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, ET, ELEC 
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: LEADING OPPOSITION COALITION BECOMES 
UNIFIED PARTY 
 
REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 3382 
 
     B. ADDIS ABABA 3425 
 
Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reason 1.4 (b,d). 
 
1 (C) SUMMARY:  The four parties belonging of the Coalition 
for Unity and Democracy (CUD), Ethiopia's leading opposition 
organization, officially merged Sept. 24 to form a single 
party of the same name.  Hailu Shawel, the Coalition's 
chairman, will continue as president of the new party, but 
the second-tier of leadership will include several new faces 
from a younger generation.  The large gathering assembled to 
launch the new party did not repeat Hailu's calls for 
bringing down the current government, and in general 
projected a unified, moderate and inclusive image.  The CUD 
now represents the largest and most cohesive democratic 
opposition Ethiopia has ever had.  While the Amhara ethnic 
group is heavily represented in the CUD, the party rejects 
ethnic-dominated politics and advocates free-market policies. 
 The CUD has taken its latest evolutionary step just in time 
to confront the GOE in mass demonstrations and/or strikes in 
the coming days.  The party's unity and political skills are 
likely to be severely tested.  End Summary. 
 
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Something Old, Something New 
---------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) The CUD held a full day of meetings Sept. 24 to 
finalize the dissolution of the coalition's four component 
parties and the birth of a new, unified political party of 
the same name.  The large gathering formalized the election 
of Hailu Shawel, the 69-year-old chairman of the previous 
coalition, as the party's new president.  Shawel's former 
political vehicle, the All Ethiopia Unity Party (AEUP), was 
the oldest and largest party (1.2 million members reported) 
in the previous CUD coalition.  Shawel himself was absent 
from the meeting as he continues his political and medical 
trip to the U.S. (ref A).  The new party's vice-presidents, 
on the other hand, come from a younger generation.  Bertukan 
Mideksa, a 34 year-old former judge from Berhanu Nega's 
Rainbow Party, was elected the CUD's first vice-president. 
She is a relatively fresh face in politics, but gained some 
notoriety when, as a judge, she issued the order to release 
former Minister of Defense Seye Abraha from prison after the 
latter failed in an internal political challenge to PM Meles. 
 The CUD's other young vice-president is 33 year-old Lidetu 
Ayalew, formerly of the EDP-Medhin Party, whose fiery 
rhetoric and charisma has earned him a large following among 
CUD youth.  Lidetu's recent statements, however, have been 
considerably more moderate than those of Hailu Shawel. 
Muluneh Eyoel of the EDL, the coalition's fourth component 
party, got the Secretary General slot. 
 
3.  (C) The new party also elected a 20-member executive 
committee that incorporates leaders from the four former 
parties in equal proportions -- this despite the fact that 
Hailu's AEUP far outnumbered the other groupings, none of 
which claims more than 100,000 members.  While they can't 
match the AEUP's numbers, however, the other parties in the 
coalition appear to offer fresh political talent from more 
diverse ethnic groups than Hailu's mainly Amhara base.  The 
CUD has explicitly rejected ethnically-oriented politics of 
the governing EPRDF coalition and has proven to be 
particularly popular in urban areas, where the degree of 
ethnic intermarriage is much greater than in Ethiopia's 
countryside. 
 
------------------------------ 
An Ethiopian Big-Tent Approach 
------------------------------ 
 
4. (C) The roughly 500 people who gathered at an Addis Ababa 
hotel to mark the CUD's transformation into a party included 
a number of notable guests.  Among them was former Ethiopian 
President Negasso Gidada, an Oromo who won a parliamentary 
seat in May national elections running as an independent. 
Marera Gudina, co-chair of the other main opposition 
coalition, the United Ethiopian Democratic Front (UEDF), was 
also in attendance.  Marera, also an Oromo, took to the 
podium to congratulate the CUD on helping to consolidate the 
opposition -- what he called a rare feat in Ethiopian 
politics.  Marera's appearance underscored the cordial 
relationship between the CUD and UEDF within Ethiopia in 
spite of persistent tensions between the two movements in the 
exile community.  CUD speakers also reiterated their desire 
to incorporate other political forces in the future. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
Comment: Impressive, But Hardest Part Still Ahead 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
5. (C) The CUD's merger party was an impressive display of 
power and unity, and avoided the threatening rhetoric that 
its new president has employed in the U.S.  Nonetheless, it 
will be increasingly difficult for CUD moderates to distance 
themselves from their own party president, as they did one 
last time last week.  The newly-founded CUD party will face 
an enormous challenge in charting a course through impending 
mass demonstrations (ref B), as well as in deciding whether 
and how to take its seats in parliament.  If it can survive 
the next several weeks, however, the CUD can look forward to 
governing Ethiopia's powerful capital city, and probably to 
expanding its share of the country's political pie in the 
coming years. 
HUDDLESTON