US embassy cable - 05QUITO2223

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 002223 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, EC 
SUBJECT: CONGRESS DEBATES REFERENDUM QUESTIONS 
 
REF: QUITO 1976 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  Minister of Government Oswaldo Molestina 
sent an initial draft of referendum questions to Congress on 
September 27.  Congress are currently wading through the text 
of 17 proposed questions designed to probe citizens' opinions 
on everything from limiting campaign advertisements to 
confirming a new Supreme Court.  Issues that legislators deem 
matters of "national urgency" will go forward to a vote; the 
Palacio government hopes that vote can take place by December 
11. 
 
2.  (SBU) Approval of high court members represents the most 
critical question on the ballot, since it risks invalidating 
the process to fill the void in the court that has existed 
since April.  Some fear that voters disenchanted with the 
administration could torpedo that progress, leaving the 
judiciary no farther ahead than it was when former President 
Gutierrez disbanded the court.  OAS observers warn that a 
poorly phrased question in the current draft could create a 
new vacuum if the people vote "no."  End Summary. 
 
3.  (SBU) The referendum proposal grew out of the irregular 
circumstances that brought President Palacio to power.  Quito 
street protests initially focused on ex-president Lucio 
Gutierrez' ouster were later interpreted as calls for 
systemic change.  Palacio assigned his Vice President to lead 
a process to collect suggestions for reform from the public, 
with constitutional changes to be decided by referendum (see 
RefTel). 
 
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The Questions Please... 
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6.  (U) Highlights of the 17 questions are as follows: 
 
Congress: 
 
--  Congress will be in full session only three months a year 
with its seven commissions working during recess months. 
 
--  A Senate of national representatives would be created to 
augment the existing Congress of provincial representatives, 
thereby creating a bicameral legislature.  (Note:  The 
administration's intention is for the new bicameral congress 
to remain at 100 members, resulting in two small chambers.) 
 
Elections: 
 
--  National and local elections would be by defined 
electoral districts, not party lists. 
 
--  Media time available for campaign advertisements would be 
controlled and divided equally among political parties. 
 
--  Primary elections would be required for candidates for 
president, vice president, mayor and provincial governor, 
with parties offering at least two candidates to primary 
voters. 
 
Courts: 
 
--  Supreme Court: Option 1:  Approve the current process 
underway to select and appoint Supreme Court judges.  Option 
2:  If the judges have not yet been selected, authorize the 
President to convene an assembly to designated judges within 
30 days. 
 
--  A non-partisan Court for Electoral Justice would be 
created to consider violations of election law and monitor 
campaign funding. 
 
--  Electoral Court judges would need the same qualifications 
as supreme court judges. 
 
--  Constitutional Court judges would also need the same 
qualification requirements as Supreme Court judges. 
 
Political Parties: 
 
--  Political parties would be required to have a platform, a 
political action plan and support from more than 5% of the 
public nationwide. Parties falling below 5% support would be 
required to disband or join with others to meet the 
requirement. 
 
--  Political parties should hold party elections every two 
years overseen by the Tribunal Supremo Electoral. 
 
Reform: 
 
--  Constitutional reforms may go into effect three months 
after their first debate within Congress and after an 3/5 
approval vote in the second debate. 
 
--  Congress has 30 days to consider the urgency of any 
constitutional reform proposals (versus the current one year 
for reforms not qualified as of national urgency). 
 
--  Reforms enacted as a result of the referendum vote cannot 
be modified for at least eight years. 
 
Impeachment and Other Authority Issues: 
 
--  Permit the popular recall by voters of the president, 
vice president and other elected officials after they have 
completed half of their terms. 
 
--  The President has authority to appoint the Minister of 
Government to serve as chief of the cabinet. 
 
--  Guarantee the right to autonomy and self governance of 
provinces and regions. 
 
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Double the Fun 
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4.  (U) Molestina has asked lawmakers to approve the 
referendum questions by October 7 to accommodate voting on 
December 11.  President Palacio has warned Congress to act 
quickly on the referendum, saying he would not hestitate to 
take "a constitutional decision" if lawmakers do not act 
quickly.  Congressional action is desired by the executive by 
October 7 because the Supreme Electoral Tribunal requires 60 
days to prepare for the referendum, which would require 
obligatory voting under Ecuadorian law. 
 
5.  (U) Congress is under no legal time constraint to act, 
however, and some Congress members are already casting doubt 
on that schedule, saying that February is a more realistic 
timeframe for the plebiscite.  Molestina has invited Congress 
to offer alternatives to the Government's questions, allowing 
voters to decide between them.  That could conceivably double 
the number of proposals on the ballot. 
 
6.  (SBU) It is much more likely that the list of questions 
will be substantially reduced after public debate.  Molestina 
told the Ambassador on September 26 that his initial draft 
reform proposals would be exhaustive, in the expectation that 
the list of questions will be reduced after dialogue with 
party leaders.  Some members of Congress have commented that 
there are too many questions and that they are hard to 
understand.  Others have criticized Molestina's proposals for 
overlooking suggestions collected from the public; instead 
selectively reflecting the administration's own reform 
agenda.  Molestina has defended the draft list as reflecting 
the interests of the people. 
 
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Comment 
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7.  (SBU) Palacio's appointment of Molestina, a popular 
member of the Democratic Left party, has improved prospects 
for negotiations with Congress.  Given time constraints 
involved in holding a December referendum, and the difficulty 
entailed in implementing electoral reforms before the 2006 
national elections, it is likely that those negotiations will 
progressively trim the list of questions to a core of four or 
five proposals, including ratification of the new Supreme 
Court. 
 
8.  (SBU) With a record of two previous referendum attempts 
(under previous presidents) failing after being converted 
into anti-government plebescites, the risks inherent in 
putting the Supreme Court issue to the people merit special 
attention.  OAS judicial expert and Chilean Senator Carlos 
Viera warned OAS diplomats on September 28 that the Supreme 
Court question should be changed.  The new Supreme Court is 
likely to be constituted by mid-November, he said, prior to 
any referendum.  If voters reject that court, a new vacuum 
would be created, since option two is available only in the 
event a court has not been selected.  We will support OAS 
efforts to correct this deficiency, and consider other ways 
to prevent the new court from being undermined. 
JEWELL