US embassy cable - 05WARSAW3494

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 003494 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PL, KJRE, Polish Elections 
SUBJECT: JAROSLAW KACZYNSKI UNEXPECTEDLY WITHDRAWS AS PM 
CANDIDATE, NAMES MARCINKIEWICZ AS PIS CHOICE 
 
REF: WARSAW 3477 AND PREVIOUS 
 
1.  (SBU)  Summary:  In a surprise move September 27, Law and 
Justice (PiS) party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski named Kazimierz 
Marcinkiewicz as the party's candidate to be Prime Minister. 
Kaczynski's decision to remove himself from the running is 
widely interpreted as a bid to improve his twin brother 
Lech's chances in the October 9 presidential election, 
addressing concerns rumbling in public that Poles were not 
inclined to have identical twins serving as Prime Minister 
and President.  Marcinkiewicz is known as a moderate within 
his party, and has good relations with his party's likely 
coalition partner, the Civic Platform.  Polish commentators 
were flabbergasted by the announcement, and speculate that 
Marcinkiewicz may be a placeholder for one or the other 
Kaczynski twin to assume the premiership in due course.  In 
an interview with Polish radio, Marcinkiewicz said he looked 
forward to being "a strong Prime Minister for the next four 
years."  Biographic information on Marcinkiewicz is at 
paragraph six.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (SBU)  PiS party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski stunned the 
public on September 27, announcing that Kazimierz 
Marcinkiewicz, a moderate PiS deputy from western Poland, 
would be the PiS candidate for prime minister. 
Marcinkiewicz, 45, is viewed as a moderate with friendly ties 
to his party's likely coalition partner, the Civic Platform 
(PO).  Kaczynski's surprise announcement is widely viewed as 
a ploy to boost the electoral chances of his identical twin, 
Lech, the PiS candidate for president, thus addressing 
concerns that Poles are reluctant to have twin brothers serve 
as President and Prime Minister. Commentators immediately 
speculated that Marcinkiewicz could be replaced as the PiS 
candidate for premier by one of the Kaczynski brothers, 
should Lech fail in his presidential bid. 
 
3.  (SBU) Marcinkiewicz, interviewed on Polish radio on 
September 28, said squarely that he was not a placeholder for 
PiS, and looks forward to serving as "a strong prime minister 
for the next four years."  He added that he looked forward to 
working closely with PO and its leader, Jan Rokita, with whom 
he hoped he would "co-form" the government quickly, perhaps 
even before the second round of the presidential campaign on 
October 23.  Marcinkiewicz announced further that he will 
meet with Polish President Kwasniewski that day, as well as 
PO's front-running Presidential candidate, Donald Tusk and 
Rokita to discuss the anticipated coalition government's 
program.  Marcinkiewicz called for "programs before posts," 
stating that the expected coalition partners should agree to 
their common policies before haggling over ministries and 
jobs. In a press conference later that day, Marcinkiewicz 
indicated he hoped that the new parliament could convene on 
October 19, thus before the second-round of the presidential 
election on October 23. 
 
Reaction within PiS 
------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) Marcinkiewicz has no known political enemies, and 
his position within the moderate wing of his party makes him 
an unobjectionable candidate to the PO.  The news of 
Marcinkiewicz's candidacy may come as a surprise for rank and 
file PiS voters, who overwhelmingly voted for Jaroslaw 
Kaczynski expecting him to be their prime minister.  Jaroslaw 
was the top vote-getter in all of Poland, receiving over 
171,000 votes in his Warsaw district.  Voters may be 
disappointed, moreover, that the Kaczynskis did not name 
their close political ally, Ludwig Dorn, as the PiS 
candidate.  Dorn has been variously described by commentators 
as "the third Kaczynski brother," and this morning as 
"practically made up of the same genetic material."  Yet 
while popular with some in PiS, Dorn would have been an 
unacceptable choice for PO. 
 
Reaction from PO 
---------------- 
 
5. (SBU)  PO, for its part, was caught off guard by the 
Marcinkiewicz announcement.  PO's presidential candidate, 
Donald Tusk, complained that he learned the news "exactly 
three minutes before it was made public."  And while 
Marcinkiewicz enjoys good relations with PO, his nomination 
was viewed by PO as forcing them to make decisions about the 
composition of the coalition in a greater hurry than they 
might wish.  This sentiment was expressed by Stefan Kawalec, 
a leading PO candidate for an economic ministry who spoke 
with econoff this morning.  Kawalec said that coalition 
negotiations would proceed gingerly, because PO was concerned 
that PiS would "instrumentalize the talks" in order to gain 
an advantage in the upcoming presidential race.  Tusk added 
in a press conference today that he wanted to meet with the 
Kaczynski brothers since it was "clear they make the 
political decisions within PiS." 
 
Biographical Note 
----------------- 
 
6. (U) Marcinkiewicz represents the Zielona Gora district in 
western Poland, and was first elected to the Sejm in 1997 as 
a deputy with Solidary Electoral Action (AWS).  When PiS was 
established in 2001 and its deputies left AWS, he was elected 
Chairman of its caucus.  Regarded as an expert on education 
matters, he was Deputy Chairman of the Sejm Education 
Committee (1999-2000), Deputy Minister of Education 
(1992-1993), and has served in a number of education 
institutions.  He was most recently chairman of the Sejm's 
Treasury Committee.  He was the head of then PM Buzek's 
cabinet in 1999-2000.  He graduated from Wroclaw University 
in 1984.  Marcinkiewicz is married and the father of four 
children.  He speaks very limited English. 
 
7.  (SBU) Comment:  Marcinkiewicz has been an excellent 
Embassy contact, and went to the United States on an 
International Visitors grant in 2000.  We have consulted with 
him closely, especially regarding private property 
legislation (as head of the Parliamentary Treasury Committee, 
Marcinkiewicz had a leading role in earlier efforts to pass 
legislation in this field), and invariably have been 
impressed by his reasonable approach and open manner.  As 
noted above, he is considered to be one of PiS' more moderate 
leaders, and had been mentioned as a possible Minister of 
Education or Treasury.  It will remain to be seen how strong 
he will be as Prime Minister, and the extent to which the 
Kaczynski's will act or be seen as powers behind the throne. 
End comment. 
Hillas