US embassy cable - 05CAIRO7501

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 007501 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC STAFF FOR POUNDS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EG 
SUBJECT: EGYPT: SENIOR NDP OFFICIAL MAINTAINS OBJECTIONS TO 
INTERNATIONAL ELECTION MONITORS 
 
Classified by Charge d'Affaires Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) During a September 22 meeting, Ahmed Ezz, a senior 
member of the ruling NDP, told visiting DAS Dibble that Egypt 
aspired to the highest standards for the coming parliamentary 
elections.  However, Ezz asserted that a GOE invitation to 
international monitors was highly unlikely, not because the 
NDP opposed it, but because Egypt's judiciary, which 
supervises the elections, and the Egyptian public were 
hostile to the idea.  Departing from GOE orthodoxy, Ezz 
downplayed the organizational skills and electoral potential 
of the illegal but tolerated Muslim Brotherhood.  Ezz's 
insistence that the GOE's hands are tied by the judiciary and 
public opinion is disingenuous and no doubt reflects the 
reservations harbored by GOE/NDP decision makers about 
international monitors.   End summary. 
 
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Self-Congratulations on the Presidential Election 
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2. (C) DAS Elizabeth Dibble, accompanied by Charge and poloff 
(notetaker) called September 22 on Ahmed Ezz, a senior member 
of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), at party 
headquarters in downtown Cairo.  Ezz, who ran President 
Mubarak's reelection campaign and is very close to Gamal 
Mubarak, was eager to present his views on the September 7 
presidential election.  He described Mubarak's 88 percent of 
the vote as a major achievement, given the unprecedented 
level of criticism and rhetorical attacks the president had 
suffered.  Popular support for the President was genuinely 
strong, he claimed.  In a series of opinion polls conducted 
by the NDP, Mubarak "never polled less than 82 percent," 
adding that the professional pollsters they had commissioned 
discounted fear as a factor that might inflate the results. 
 
3. (C) Ezz admitted that the NDP had been disappointed by the 
turnout of 7.5 million voters, noting that their goal had 
been 9 million.  Ezz blamed the low turnout in part on the 
overzealous practices of the judges, who created long lines 
by only letting one voter at a time enter polling places, 
even if there were four ballot boxes.  Judges were also often 
overcautious in matching prospective voters to names on the 
voting list turning away many qualified voters.  Ezz said the 
GOE had been shocked and disappointed at the negativity of 
initial coverage of the election in the international media, 
focusing on individual irregularities instead of the positive 
big picture.  Over time, he believed, accounts in the western 
media were being more gracious and objective in their 
assessment of the election.  Even prominent regime critic 
Hafez Abou Seada, though he had identified some flaws in the 
process,  did not challenge the overall result, Ezz observed. 
 
 
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Ambitious Goals for the Parliamentary Elections 
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4. (C) Asked about preparations for the coming parliamentary 
elections, set for three rounds beginning November 8, Ezz 
asserted that the NDP was determined to adhere to the highest 
standards of conduct and predicted that they would be the 
most transparent and credible elections Egypt had ever 
staged.  Ezz said that after the coming parliamentary 
elections, nine out of ten Egyptians would admit that they 
were free and fair.  (Comment: Ezz was vague about specific 
steps the NDP/GOE would take to improve the conduct of this 
year's polls.  End comment.) 
 
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Judicial Independence = No international monitors 
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5. (C) Responding to DAS Dibble's points on the importance of 
international monitoring, Ezz allowed that he understood the 
benefits of this approach and had privately lobbied for it. 
However, Ezz continued, the bottom line for the GOE was the 
domestic "perception of acceptability," and asserted that 
international monitoring crossed this line.  According to 
Ezz, the opposition of the Egyptian judiciary to 
international monitoring was the biggest stumbling block. 
The judges believe inviting international monitors is 
tantamount to questioning their ability and integrity, he 
claimed.  Ezz recalled that the Presidential Elections 
Commission had only very grudgingly and under great pressure 
(from the NDP, he claimed) agreed to allow domestic monitors 
to enter polling stations. 
 
6. (C) The Egyptian people hold the judges in very high 
esteem and will follow their lead on this issue, he asserted. 
 (Comment: Our own soundings indicate that there is no 
consensus within the Egyptian judiciary on the acceptability 
of international monitors - judges range in their views from 
enlightened liberals to xenophobic nationalists.  End 
comment.)  Ezz also offered that the NDP had conducted a 
public opinion poll on the acceptability of monitoring and 
found that 50 percent of those questioned had responded with 
a "don't know."  However, of the 50 percent prepared to offer 
an opinion, 80 percent had said they were strongly against 
international election monitors, he claimed. 
 
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Domestic Monitors Key 
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7. (C) DAS Dibble reemphasized to Ezz the importance the USG 
attaches to international monitors, and cautioned that the 
parliamentary elections would be closely scrutinized, without 
the benefit of novelty that came with Egypt's first 
competitive presidential election on September 7. 
Continuing, DAS Dibble asked Ezz what concrete positive steps 
Egypt would take in order to present the coming parliamentary 
elections as fair and credible.  Ezz said that Egypt would be 
able to point to an expanded role for domestic monitors as an 
indicator of progress. 
 
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Who's Afraid of the MB? 
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8. (C) Ezz strongly downplayed possible gains for the 
(illegal, but partially tolerated) Muslim Brotherhood (MB) in 
the parliamentary elections.  (Note: There are currently 16 
"independent" members of parliament affiliated with the MB. 
End note.) Ezz decried the "myth" that the MB were well 
organized and potentially poised to perform well at the 
polls.  "We are much better organized than they will ever 
be," he asserted.  "They will probably get some seats, but 
there will be no major gains," he predicted confidently. 
 
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Comment 
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9. (C) Ezz's dismissive view of the Muslim Brotherhood is a 
departure from GOE orthodoxy.  The GOE has traditionally been 
given to warnings that the MB would sweep to power and set up 
a backward Iran-style regime if the electoral floodgates were 
opened.  On international monitors, Ezz may have been correct 
in asserting that the GOE would have to overcome the 
reservations of members of the judiciary, but the judges' 
purported opposition is also too convenient a pretext.  The 
reluctance of GOE/NDP decision-makers to invite international 
monitors probably reflects both their own nationalist 
sensitivities and their cognizance of the manipulation and 
fraud that has characterized past parliamentary elections - 
and may well be evident in the November polls.  End comment. 
 
 
Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo 
 
You can also access this site through the 
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. 
 
JONES