US embassy cable - 05ABUJA1845

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001845 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958, DECL:  09/27/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: IBB ON THE FUTURE OF DOMESTIC POLITICS 
 
 
Classified By: John Campbell, Ambassador, Abuja, 
Reason(s): 1.5 (b),(d) 
 
1.  (S) Summary:  Former military ruler and possible 
future presidential candidate Ibrahim Babangida will make 
a final decision only in the Spring of 2006 about whether 
to run for president.  He also expressed interest in 
establishing his own political party.  He urged the U.S. 
and other major donors to play a major role in the 2007 
elections, especially the preparation of registration 
lists.  He described his political philosophy, which 
centers on devolution of power from the Federal government 
to the states, and called for a "Marshall Plan" to address 
the underlying problems of the oil-rich delta.  He 
reaffirmed his belief that the next President of Nigeria 
should have a military background to ensure the survival 
of the Nigerian state.  His biggest concern:  that the 
rivalry between President Obasanjo and Vice President 
Atiku could lead to violence, the outcome of which would 
be unpredictable and potentially profoundly damaging to 
the Nigeria body politic.  End summary. 
 
2.  (U) At his request, former Chief of State Ibrahim 
Babangida met with me at the residence on September 27. 
He relayed his wish to see me through National Security 
Advisor Aliyu Mohammed.  He was accompanied by retired Air 
Vice Marshal Hamza Abdullahi, who had been the Minister of 
the Federal Capital Territory when Babangida was Chief of 
State.  The Regional Affairs Counselor was also present. 
Babangida opened the conversation by expressing his 
condolences to the victims of hurricanes Katrina and Rita. 
 
3.  (C) With respect to the presidency in 2007, Babangida 
said that he had not made a final decision to declare his 
candidacy.  Candidates, he continued, are "chosen" by 
"like minded men."   But, whether he was a candidate or 
not, he said he was exploring the possibility of 
establishing a new political party which could govern if 
it won the presidency, serve as a loyal opposition if it 
lost.  When pressed, as to whom he would support if he 
chose not to run, Babangida said that his candidate must 
be "a like minded friend" with a military background and 
international stature, someone "like" Aliyu Mohammed. (In 
passing, he confirmed that he had been one of Obasanjo's 
principal kingmakers in 1999.) However, he avoided saying 
specifically that the National Security Advisor would be 
his candidate, should he himself not run.  He added that 
his candidate must not be afraid of the press, which he 
characterized as "irresponsible." 
 
4.  (S) Babangida said it was important to be "fair" to 
President Obasanjo and, in essence, take at face value the 
latter's statements that he will leave office at the end 
of his term in 2007.  It would be very difficult, 
Babangida continued, to amend the constitution or 
otherwise make legally possible an Obasanjo third term. 
Babangida said that he, personally, believed in the 
presidential two-term limit.  Any exception, he continued, 
could be contemplated only if the incumbent were an 
unqualified success.  And President Obasanjo is deeply 
unpopular, as are the people around him.  Vice President 
Atiku, he continued, had handled his own candidacy for the 
presidency poorly.  Atiku acted as though the PDP 
nomination was his for the asking, and his increasingly 
public feud with the President was unseemly as they were 
part of the same administration.  As Vice President, Atiku 
owned his undivided loyalty to the President.  During a 
private aside with me at the close of the meeting, 
Babangida expressed concern that the struggle over the PDP 
between Obasanjo and Atiku could lead to violence. He 
quoted the President as saying that violence would be met 
with violence.  But, Babangida said, once violence is 
unleashed, the consequences are unpredictable and have the 
potential for profoundly damaging Nigeria. 
 
5.  (C) If he were to be a candidate for President, 
Babangida said he would campaign in favor of a "Marshall 
Plan" for the Delta.  The root causes of instability in 
that region, he continued, are poverty and under 
development.  He also said that he favors devolving 
further powers from the Federal government to the states, 
in education, for example.  He went on to say that in a 
country as diverse as Nigeria, there was no reason why all 
the states needed the same institutions of government. 
With respect to the conduct of the 2007 elections, he 
urged the U.S. and other donors to take an active role, 
especially in the preparation of voter registration roles. 
He also argued that the results of the polling should be 
released by each local government area (LGA), rather than 
by any organ of the Federal government, to reduce 
tampering with the results.  He acknowledged the 
importance of the 2007 elections to restoring public 
confidence in the democratic process in Nigeria. 
 
6.  (S) Comment:  While I had met him several times when 
he was chief of state, this was my first meeting with 
Babangida since my return to Nigeria.  He was articulate 
and urbane, and betrayed no appearance of aging.  Though 
he was coy about his own presidential intentions, Hamza 
Abdullahi said flatly that Babangida will run.  If this is 
correct, it could explain Babangida's reluctance to 
endorse on the spot the candidacy of Aliyu Mohammed.  The 
posters throughout the country supporting his candidacy 
are solely the work of his "friends"--not him, Babangida 
said.  However, nearly all observers think that he has 
built up the biggest campaign war chest of any of the 
contenders.  His concern that the rivalry between Obasanjo 
and Atiku risks violence was striking--and delivering that 
warning appears to have been the principal purpose of the 
visit.  Striking, too, was his continuing to see the 
military as the guarantor of the Nigerian state, and, 
hence, that the next President must have a military 
background.  (Of all the declared presidential candidates, 
only Vice President Atiku does not.)  He made all the 
right responses to my points about the need for the rule 
of law and transparency in elections.  Though he was 
willing to talk about policy, e.g., the delta "Marshall 
Plan", devolution of more power to the states and the 
importance of Nigeria's international role, he appeared 
most interested in talking about the possibilities of a 
new political party.  He would not allow himself to be 
drawn out on the problems of the North.  Indeed, 
throughout our particular conversation, at least, 
Babangida showed remarkably little "fire in the belly" for 
actually fighting for the Presidency.  End comment. 
CAMPBELL