US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV5864

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 TEL AVIV 005864 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
STATE FOR NEA/AIP 
DEFENSE FOR OSD (JAMES ANDERSON) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2015 
TAGS: PREL, MARR, MASS, KPAL, KWBG, EG, IS, GOI EXTERNAL, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT 
SUBJECT: AMB. JONES' 9/26 MEETING WITH ISRAELI MOD'S GILAD 
FOCUSES ON EGYPT, GAZA, HAMAS ACTIVITY AND PA ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A. TEL AVIV 05794 
     B. TEL AVIV 05137 
 
Classified By: Amb. Richard H. Jones.  Reasons: 1.4 (b, d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (S/NF) In a September 26 meeting with the Ambassador, 
Israeli MOD Political-Military Bureau Chief Amos Gilad 
indicated that his September 25 meetings in Egypt to discuss 
the Rafah passage on the Egypt-Gaza border yielded no 
breakthroughs.  Gilad said the Israelis prefer to open Rafah 
passage after six months, while the Egyptians prefer to open 
it by mid-January -- before Palestinian elections and the 
Haj.  Gilad said the Egyptians are controlling the Egypt-Gaza 
border better than before, and praised them for quickly 
sealing the border when asked by Israel to do so.  Requesting 
that his information and sources be strictly protected, Gilad 
said Egyptian Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman recounted to 
him the details of a recent visit to Cairo by Syrian 
President Al-Asad.  Gilad cited Suleiman as saying that 
Al-Asad "threatened" Egypt not to yield to U.S. pressure to 
isolate Syria, or suffer Syria's playing the "Palestinian 
card." 
 
2. (S/NF)  Summary, cont.:  Gilad said he warned Suleiman 
that continued terrorist activity on the part of Hamas will 
not be tolerated, and that Hamas participation in January 
2006 Palestinian elections will "destroy everything." 
According to Gilad, Suleiman said Egypt will take steps to 
ensure that there will be no elections in January, but did 
not elaborate.  Gilad portrayed the Palestinian Authority 
(PA) as a "sinking ship" suffering from interpersonal 
rivalries among PA President Abbas, PM Quraya', Civil Affairs 
Minister Dahlan and Interior Minister Yusif.  He said PA 
President Abbas needs to assert his leadership and act upon 
it, and suggested that the U.S. and Egypt present Abbas with 
that choice.  Gilad cautioned that U.S. economic assistance 
to the PA will not help to stabilize the security situation 
in the Gaza Strip.  Gilad said he is hopeful that an 
Israel-Egypt security dialogue can be started up, and 
expressed his hope that the U.S.-Israel security dialogue 
will be restarted now that the issue of Israeli exports to 
China has been resolved.  Gilad expressed his concerns about 
developments in Iran and Jordan, and said that Israel has 
very little information about Iran.  He asked the Ambassador 
about his views on the future of Iraq, and was told that the 
U.S. is cautiously optimistic about Iraq's future, seeing 
positive indicators in increased Sunni political 
participation and the continued training of Iraqi security 
forces.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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GILAD SUGGESTS NO BREAKTHROUGH ON RAFAH 
--------------------------------------- 
 
3. (S) Gilad indicated that his September 25 meetings in 
Egypt to discuss the Rafah passage between Egypt and the Gaza 
Strip yielded no breakthroughs.  Gilad said he conveyed to 
Egyptian Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman that Israel could 
allow the Rafah passage to open after six months.  Suleiman 
reportedly conveyed Egypt's preference for opening after four 
months -- in mid-January before the Palestinian elections and 
the Haj.  Gilad praised the Egyptians for responding quickly 
to Israeli calls to stop the flow of human traffic along the 
Egypt-Gaza border, noting that it took the Egyptians only 30 
minutes to respond to Israel's request to seal the border on 
Friday, September 23.  Gilad acknowledged that the Egyptians 
opened it for a short time afterwards to allow some people to 
cross, but said this was to "let off some steam" from the 
Gaza Strip, and clarified that Israel had no problem with the 
temporary flow which Minister Mofaz had approved.  Gilad said 
the Egyptians are controlling the Egypt-Gaza border better 
than when they took control of it from the IDF. 
 
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GILAD RECOUNTS WHAT EGYPTIANS TOLD HIM OF AL-ASAD VISIT 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
4. (S/NF) Asking that the information be kept in the 
strictest of confidence and not attributed to anyone, Gilad 
said that Suleiman recounted to him a recent visit of Syrian 
President Bashar Al-Asad to Egypt.  Gilad said that Suleiman 
told him that Al-Asad threatened the Egyptians with the 
"Palestinian card," saying Syria would play it if Egypt 
succumbed to U.S. pressure to isolate Syria.  According to 
Gilad, Al-Asad told Suleiman that he wants to develop 
political cooperation among Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Syria. 
When the proposal was made to Egyptian President Mubarak, 
Mubarak reportedly told Al-Asad that Egypt would not 
cooperate with Syria, and would not countenance Syrian 
threats.  According to Gilad, Suleiman said that Mubarak told 
Al-Asad that he should behave in his relations with the U.S. 
Gilad said, "It appears the Egyptians do not like Al-Asad, 
especially as he appears to have given the Palestinians a 
'free hand.'"  Gilad stressed the "utmost secrecy" of his 
discussion with Suleiman, noting that Suleiman told him that 
he does not want it to be known that Suleiman had invited 
Gilad to Egypt. 
 
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GILAD DELIVERS STERN MESSAGE ON PALESTINIAN QASSAM LAUNCHES 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
5. (S) During his three-hour meeting with Suleiman, Gilad 
said he conveyed a "stern, severe" message from Israeli 
DefMin Mofaz to the Egyptians about the Palestinians' 
launching of Qassam missiles into Israel:  "This cannot 
continue.  The mood in Israel is very bad."  To emphasize the 
seriousness of the message, Gilad said, he refused dinner 
with Suleiman.  According to Gilad, Suleiman "spoke bitterly 
of Hamas," and portrayed it as a common enemy akin to the 
Muslim Brotherhood.  Referring to the Qassam attacks, Gilad 
told the Ambassador, "It is humiliating to us. We have to 
respond."  Gilad said the Qassam launches were conducted by 
Hamas to cover up for its mistake that led to the fatal 
explosion of Qassams at a rally in Jabalya refugee camp on 
September 23.  He said that Hamas was careless in the 
particular incident, but should not be underestimated:  "They 
are very disciplined, much more so than the PA security 
forces."  Gilad predicted that Hamas's weekend Qassam 
launches will come back to haunt them.  Recalling earlier 
discussions he has had with the Egyptians, Gilad said the 
Egyptians are shocked by the scope of terror organizations in 
the Sinai.  He said the Egyptians initially told him the 
terrorist networks were 100 percent Egyptian, but eventually 
admitted they are run by Wahhabi organizations out of Saudi 
Arabia.  Gilad said he believes the latter, although he 
emphasized he did not see a Saudi government hand at work in 
this case. 
 
6. (S) Gilad said he will meet with Egyptian Major General 
Mustafa Bucheri on September 27 to discuss possible Egyptian 
training of Palestinian security personnel.  Gilad described 
Bucheri as a low-key, self-effacing but very knowledgeable 
expert who is in charge of Egypt's intelligence liaison in 
Gaza.  According to Gilad, Bucheri is in charge of 46 
Palestinian advisers in Gaza, and wants to open military 
training camps in Gaza and the West Bank for Palestinian 
security personnel.  Gilad said the GOI needs to discuss the 
issue further.  Gilad himself is not inclined to have the 
Egyptians training Palestinian security personnel, although 
he said that it is already happening in Egypt.  He noted that 
Egypt had sent Badr Brigade trainers to Jordan, and assessed 
that it had not yielded anything fruitful.  He also dismissed 
out of hand Jordanian offers to send Badr Brigade members to 
the West Bank to train PASF, commenting they had enough 
Palestinians to worry about already. 
 
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DISCUSSION OF PALESTINIAN ELECTIONS, IN-FIGHTING WITHIN PA 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
7. (S/NF) Gilad said he warned Suleiman that if Hamas 
participates in the January 2006 Palestinian elections "it 
will destroy everything, as Hamas will take over and start a 
new process."  According to Gilad, Suleiman and his deputy 
told him, "There will be no elections in January.  We will 
take care of it."  Gilad requested that the USG closely hold 
this information and strictly protect the sources.  He 
clarified that neither Suleiman nor his deputy explained how 
Egypt would stop the elections or elaborated further on the 
subject.  Gilad admitted that he does not know how the 
Egyptians could prevent the elections from taking place, but 
said, "The only people the Palestinians can trust now are the 
Egyptians." 
 
8. (S) Gilad said he is hopeful that Egyptian President 
Mubarak will tell Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas during 
the latter's visit to Cairo September 27 that the Palestinian 
Authority must make a choice:  "It either takes the reins of 
government or it does not."  Gilad recalled that he stressed 
this issue to Suleiman who, according to Gilad, wrote down 
"for the first time" the points Gilad made to him.  Gilad 
believes that means his points will be shown to Mubarak in 
advance of the Mubarak-Abbas meeting. 
 
9. (S) Gilad said the problem facing the PA is that PA 
President Abbas "actually believes he can convince Hamas 
through dialogue after a long period of peace.  He believes 
there is no alternative to himself."  Gilad recalled how he 
had recently turned over a memo to Abbas along with a request 
to reorganize the PA.  According to Gilad, Abbas said he 
would work with it, but took no action.  Gilad said PA 
Interior Minister Nasir Yusif is honest but has no power 
base.  In contrast, he described Suleiman Hillas -- the 
Palestinian Security Forces Commander in Gaza -- as 
competent.  Gilad recalled that Hillas worked well with the 
IDF during the Gaza evacuation, but noted that Hillas did not 
report his communications with the IDF to Yusif.  Gilad said 
PA Civil Affairs Minister Muhammad Dahlan is out to get 
Yusif, and that PA PM Ahmad Quraya' is "terrible, and needs 
to go."  Portraying the PA as a "sinking ship," Gilad said he 
had cited the shameful responses to the murder of Musa Arafat 
to Suleiman, who had responded by saying a commission must be 
established to investigate the murder of Arafat.  As a 
further example of the state of disarray in the PA, Gilad 
suggested that Palestinian policemen and soldiers helped to 
loot the greenhouses that were preserved for the Palestinians. 
 
10. (S) Responding to the Ambassador's question about what 
can be done to help PA President Abbas, Gilad replied, "He 
listens to the U.S. and Egypt.  He needs to be told he has to 
make a decision.  Either there is one state, one authority, 
one weapon in Gaza, or there is not.  He needs to be forced 
to make a choice, and then he needs to carry out his 
obligations."  Gilad said, "U.S. economic assistance to the 
PA will not help to resolve the security situation in the 
Gaza Strip." 
 
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GILAD PITCHES STRATEGIC DIALOGUES 
--------------------------------- 
 
11. (C) Gilad said that as a result of discussions with the 
Egyptians on the Egypt-Gaza Border Guard Force Agreement, 
relations with Egypt have markedly improved.  He hopes 
Israel's long-held goal of a serious strategic dialogue with 
Egypt can finally be achieved, and noted that the Egyptians 
will invite Israel DefMin Mofaz to Egypt.  (NOTE:  He did not 
specify a date.  END NOTE.)  Gilad suggested that Egypt -- 
like Israel -- is worried about Iran and its nuclear weapons 
program and designs in Iraq. 
 
12. (C) Gilad expressed frustration that the U.S. and Israel 
"do not have a formal framework for discussion, as a result 
of the incident involving China."  He indicated that the 
delay in holding the Joint POL-MIL Group (JPMG) session, 
Defense Policy Advisory Group (DPAG), and the Strategic 
Dialogue is deeply felt in Israel's security establishment, 
especially as "it is recognized that the U.S. treats 
seriously only formal dialogues."  The Ambassador responded 
that there is a desire to re-start the Strategic Dialogue 
with Israel, and that it could begin this fall or in early 
2006.  He said that Secretary Rice has assigned Under 
Secretary Burns to lead it.  Gilad acknowledged this was a 
 
SIPDIS 
positive development. 
 
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GILAD EXPRESSES CONCERN ABOUT JORDAN, IRAQ 
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13. (C) Gilad said he is concerned about the current 
situation in Jordan, with King Abdullah reportedly rotating 
his generals and governments on a regular basis, changing out 
his ambassador to Israel unexpectedly, and facing increasing 
opposition in the Jordanian parliament.  Gilad said that 
Israel's cooperation with Jordan on the counterterrorism 
front is "incredible," and he hopes it will continue.  He 
stressed that Jordan's stability is vital to Israel's 
security.  Gilad said he is worried that Israel does not know 
much about the situation in Saudi Arabia, or about internal 
ethnic tensions in Iran. 
 
14. (C) Gilad asked the Ambassador about Iraq, expressing his 
view that security is the main issue there.  The Ambassador 
said he was cautiously optimistic about the future of Iraq, 
observing that the Sunnis seem increasingly ready to 
participate in the democratic process, and that the U.S. is 
making significant progress in training Iraqi security forces. 
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