US embassy cable - 02BEIRUT3470

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 003470 
 
D FOR BARRY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, LE 
SUBJECT: LEBANESE INTERIOR MINISTER BANS OCTOBER 31 
DEMONSTRATIONS 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR VINCENT M. BATTLE; REASONS 1.5 (B), (D). 
 
1.  (U)  SUMMARY:  INTERIOR MINISTER ELIAS MURR ANNOUNCED ON 
OCTOBER 30 THAT HE WOULD NOT GRANT PERMISSION TO OPPOSITION 
GROUP QORNET SHEHWAN'S (QS) "PRO-FREEDOM" PROTEST OR TO THE 
COUNTER-DEMONSTRATION PROPOSED BY THE PRO-SYRIAN ISLAMIC 
GATHERING, BOTH SCHEDULED FOR OCTOBER 31.  QS MEMBERS QUICKLY 
RESPONDED BY CANCELING THEIR DEMONSTRATION, WHILE THE AOUNIST 
FREE PATRIOTIC MOVEMENT VOWED TO CARRY ON WITH ITS PLANS TO 
DEMONSTRATE DESPITE THE BAN.  MURR SAID HIS DECISION WAS 
BASED ON THE NEED TO MAINTAIN CIVIL PEACE DUE TO THE 
"REGIONAL SITUATION" AND TO ENSURE THE SUCCESS OF PARIS II. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C)  IN A MOVE AGAINST THE OPPOSITION, INTERIOR MINISTER 
ELIAS MURR DECIDED ON OCTOBER 30 TO BAN ALL OCTOBER 31 
DEMONSTRATIONS, INCLUDING QS'S DEMONSTRATION, THE ISLAMIC 
GATHERING'S COUNTER-DEMONSTRATION AND ALL OTHER SCHEDULED FOR 
THIS DATE.  MURR JUSTIFIED HIS DECISION ON THE BASIS OF 
MAINTAINING CIVIL STABILITY AT A TIME WHEN THE REGIONAL 
SITUATION IS VOLATILE AND IN ORDER TO ENSURE THE SUCCESS OF 
THE UPCOMING PARIS II INTERNATIONAL DONOR'S CONFERENCE. 
DESPITE REPORTED DISAGREEMENT WITHIN QS ON WHETHER TO GO 
AHEAD WITH THE DEMONSTRATION, QS ACTED QUICKLY TO CANCEL THE 
DEMONSTRATION AND AVOID ARRESTS.  (COMMENT:  THE DECISION TO 
CANCEL THE QS DEMONSTRATION ONCE THE GOL DENIED PERMISSION TO 
PROTEST WAS ALMOST GUARANTEED.  QS LEADERS ARE ALREADY 
NERVOUS ABOUT THE ONGOING INVESTIGATIONS OF OPPOSITION 
MEMBERS FOR "CONTACT WITH THE ISRAELI ENEMY" AND WERE NOT 
LIKELY TO PUT THEMSELVES IN THE LINE OF FIRE OF THE INTERNAL 
SECURITY FORCES (ISF).  END COMMENT.) 
 
3.  (C)  THE FREE PATRIOTIC MOVEMENT, COMPRISED OF SUPPORTERS 
OF EXILE GENERAL MICHEL AOUN, LIVED UP TO ITS PROMISE TO 
DEMONSTRATE DESPITE THE BAN.  APPROXIMATELY 300 PEOPLE 
DEMONSTRATED WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THE INFORMATION 
UNIVERSITY CAMPUS IN FANAR, A VILLAGE NEAR BEIRUT, THE 
AFTERNOON OF OCTOBER 31.  FOLLOWING THE DEMONSTRATIONS, 
PROTESTERS ATTEMPTED TO CONGREGATE IN THE STREETS BUT WERE 
STOPPED BY THE ISF.  RSO SOURCES REPORT THAT ROCKS AND OTHER 
OBJECTS WERE THROWN AT POLICE BUT AS YET WE HAVE NO 
INFORMATION ABOUT ANY ARRESTS.  NO OTHER DEMONSTRATIONS 
OCCURRED. 
 
4.  (C)  COMMENT.  THE SAGA, WHICH BEGAN WITH THE CONTESTED 
METN ELECTIONS, FOLLOWED BY THE MARONITE CONFERENCE IN LOS 
ANGELES, THE CLOSURE OF MTV, AND THE DISINTEGRATION OF 
ATTEMPTED RAPPROCHEMENT BETWEEN PRESIDENT LAHOUD AND THE QS, 
CONTINUES UNABATED.  WHAT MANY BELIEVE STARTED AS A FAMILY 
FEUD HAS ENGAGED THE ENTIRE NATION AND LED TO A RISE IN 
SECTARIAN TENSIONS.  MURR'S JUSTIFICATION ON THE GROUNDS OF 
REGIONAL INSTABILITY AND PARIS II IS THIN AND MORE 
OPPORTUNITIES REMAIN FOR THE ISSUE TO COME TO A HEAD.  THE QS 
WILL MEET NOVEMBER 7 TO DECIDE ITS NEXT MOVE.  IN THE 
MEANTIME, MTV LAWYERS HAVE MADE ANOTHER APPEAL OF THE 
STATION'S PERMANENT CLOSURE.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
BATTLE