US embassy cable - 05WARSAW3477

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 003477 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PL, Polish Elections 
SUBJECT: FINAL ELECTION RESULTS ANNOUNCED IN POLAND 
 
REF: A. WARSAW 2465 
 
     B. WARSAW 3456 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary: The final results of Polish parliamentary 
elections confirmed a narrow first-place finish for the 
center-right Law and Justice (PiS), followed by its 
anticipated coalition partner, the Civic Platform (PO). The 
latest forecasts for parliamentary seat distribution indicate 
that PiS and PO will have a comfortable working majority, but 
short of the necessary two-thirds required to amend the 
Polish constitution.  Analyses of PiS's victory over PO 
highlight the impact of traditional LPR supporters voting for 
PiS, with the open encouragement of arch-conservative Radio 
Maryja.  PiS was also successful in labeling the PO's 
economic program as "dangerous liberalism."  PO may have 
suffered by identifying itself too closely as the party of 
educated and urban Poles.  Attention now shifts to the first 
round of presidential elections (October 9) and the 
horse-trading over the composition of the anticipated PiS-PO 
coalition government.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (U) The Polish State Electoral Commission announced early 
September 27 the final results of Poland's September 25 
parliamentary elections.  The final tallies confirm PiS 
winning with 26.99 percent of the vote, followed by PO at 
24.14 percent.  Third place went to the populist 
Self-Defense, with 11.41 percent.  The governing SLD beat 
expectations, receiving 11.31 percent of the vote. The 
right-wing League of Polish Families (LPR), meanwhile, 
performed well below expectations, at just 7.97 percent. (LPR 
leader Roman Giertych won his seat by the thinnest of 
margins.)  The remaining party of the six that will enter 
parliament, the Peasants' Party (PSL), finished at 6.96 
percent.  The latest forecasts for seat distribution, based 
on ninety percent of the votes tallied, show PiS and PO with 
152 and 133 seats, respectively, far more than the 231 needed 
for a majority.  The final seat allocation will be released 
by the State Electoral Commission later September 27. 
 
3.  (SBU) Voter turnout was a meager 40.17 percent, an 
all-time low for post-communist Poland, and a reflection of 
voter apathy.  Some Poles complained to poloffs that they did 
not see any real difference between PiS and PO, which 
dominated the final months of the campaign.  Others indicate 
that they switched from PO to PiS in the final days, 
responding to PiS attacks that PO's economic program was 
"dangerous" and "liberal" (in the economic sense, here 
reminiscent of "shock therapy" and suggesting a willingness 
to abandon the social net for the economically down-trodden). 
 One Pole who switched from PO to PiS told poloff that PO's 
flat-tax proposal would harm average Poles by raising VAT 
taxes on currently subsidized programs like health care and 
child care benefiting the wealthy at the expense of the 
middle class. Another factor benefiting PiS was the support 
it received from arch-conservative Radio Maryja, which urged 
its listeners to support PiS (as opposed to their usual 
party, LPR) in order to "sink PO."  For its part, PO was 
ineffective in countering the PiS charges. 
 
4.  (SBU) PO officials throughout Poland repeatedly told 
poloffs that they expected to place first because they 
enjoyed the support of "virtually all educated Poles."  This 
smug expectation clearly fell flat with some Poles who chafed 
at PO's arrogance.  So far this label does not seem to have 
hurt PO's front-running presidential candidate, Donald Tusk, 
who continues to enjoy a double-digit lead over his PiS 
rival, Lech Kaczynski.  Billboards throughout the country 
show the smiling PO candidate labeled as "President Tusk." 
Before the parliamentary elections, PO spoke hopefully of a 
first-round win for Tusk.  Sobered by their second-place 
finish, most in PO now expect Tusk to ultimately prevail, but 
only in a second-round face off with Kaczynski on October 23. 
 Tusk opened an aggressive campaign Monday, playing off 
perceived public concern about the prospect of the twin 
Kaczynski brothers serving as both Prime Minister and 
President. 
 
Red States - Blue States 
------------------------ 
 
5. (U) PiS prevailed in two-thirds of Poland's provinces, 
including Warsaw and the traditionally poorer areas in 
northern, eastern and southern Poland.  PiS's strongest 
showing was in the province surrounding conservative Krakow, 
where it received 37 percent of the vote.  PO won in five 
provinces, predominantly in the wealthier western regions of 
Poland, and capturing fully 40 percent of the vote in 
PO-stronghold, Gdansk. The extremist Self Defense, which 
placed third overall, came in first in three largely rural 
provinces, but did not in the end have the hidden well of 
support that some feared, and polled at about the rate 
predicted by opinion surveys.  Voter turnout, while 
disappointing overall, was notably higher in cities than in 
rural areas. 
 
6. (SBU)  While pundits agree that PiS was successful in 
outperforming PO by attacking its rival's liberal economic 
policies, and while the two parties will face each other 
again in the presidential campaign, there remains no question 
that they are committed to forming a strong ruling coalition, 
with ministries divided roughly along the same lines as 
speculated for a PO-led coalition.  Both parties are deeply 
committed to a strong bilateral relationship with the United 
States.  PiS's Lech Kaczynski yesterday said there was "no 
strict deadline" for withdrawing Polish troops from Iraq. 
PO's Donald Tusk was more cautious, calling for "serious 
talks" with the United States with respect to Poland's role 
in Iraq.  While PiS has scheduled a 6:00 p.m. press 
conference, reportedly to announce its candidate for Prime 
Minister, it is still likely that there will not be a 
government in place until after presidential elections. 
 
Ashe