US embassy cable - 05ALMATY3447

UNCLAS  ALMATY 003447 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KZ, 2005 Election, POLITICAL 
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDDUP, 
SEPTEMBER 26 
 
REF: Almaty 2985 
 
1. (U) This is the second in a series of weekly election 
roundups, in advance of Kazakhstan's December 4, 2005 
presidential elections.  Items were drawn primarily from 
the local press and media. 
 
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Would-be Candidates for President 
--------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) As of September 21, the Central Election Commission 
(CEC) had received 12 applications from would-be 
candidates: current President Nursultan Nazarbayev; 
Senator Uyalikhan Kaysarov; the leader of the opposition 
block "For a Just Kazakhstan," Zharmakhan Tuyakbay; 
businessman Oten Salim Sagyndykuly; member of the Mazhilis 
(lower house of Parliament) and People's Communist Party 
Yerasyl Abylkasymov; the leader of the "Attan Kazakhstan" 
anti-nuclear movement, Amanatay Asylbek; lawyer Mekemtas 
Tleulesov; an unemployed self-nominee Meyramkul 
Kozhagulova (female); a second female self-nominee, Maya 
Karamayeva; President of "KazAgro" National Federation of 
Farmers Baltabay Rakhimzhanov; former wrestling coach 
Zhaksybay Bazilbayev; and green movement activist Mels 
Yeleusizov.  Both Karamayeva and Kozhagulova failed their 
Kazakh language tests. 
 
3. (U) After passing the language test and meeting other 
pre-registration requirements, candidates must collect 
approximately 90,000 voters' signatures in order to be 
officially registered.  (Specifically, to be registered a 
candidate must collect signatures equal to 1% of the total 
number of registered voters nationwide.  To ensure broad 
geographic support, he or she must collect the signatures 
of at least 1% of registered voters in two-thirds of all 
oblasts.) 
 
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Baimenov Jumps in at the Last Minute 
------------------------------------ 
 
4. (SBU) On September 25, the Ak Zhol party nominated 
Alikhan Baimenov to run for the presidency, thereby 
dashing FJK's hopes of maintaining unity among the 
opposition.  Baimenov called on all democratic 
organizations to unite their efforts, saying "We have one 
opponent - the current power.  We have one goal - 
Kazakhstan's prosperity.  And we should hold together." 
With his relatively high profile in the regions, Baimenov 
is expected to draw votes away from Tuyakbay. 
 
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Control over the Media Tightens 
------------------------------- 
 
5. (SBU) According to FJK contacts, due to pressure from 
Kazakhstani authorities on September 26 the printing house 
Vremya Print announced that it would no longer publish 
opposition newspapers.  As a result the publication of 
several opposition papers such as Epokha, Soz, Zhuma 
Times, and Svoboda Slova will be halted at least 
temporarily.  FJK representatives claim that Kazakhstani 
law forbids printing newspapers outside the country, so 
they cannot use the Freedom House press in Bishkek. 
 
6. (U) The Prosecutor General issued a statement on 
September 17 warning media owners, editors-in-chief, 
reporters and distributors of media products that 
prosecutors are tightening up their oversight.  The 
statement noted an increase in the number of publications 
discrediting high government officials or people who 
intend to become government officials, along with slander, 
provocative and false information, and the publication of 
secrets that are protected by law.  It also charged that 
 
SIPDIS 
illegal production of media takes place.  The statement 
reiterated that it is illegal to encourage through 
propaganda the violent change of the constitutional order; 
the destruction of Kazakhstan's integrity; the undermining 
of the country's security; war, social, racial, ethnic, 
religious, tribal superiority; or the cult of cruelty and 
violence.  It is also illegal to publish or disseminate 
materials which knowingly discredit the honor, dignity and 
reputation of a candidate to the post of President of the 
Republic of Kazakhstan. 
 
 
7.  (U) On September 20, the "Journalists in Distress" 
fund issued a statement reporting increasing pressure on 
the opposition press on the run-up to the presidential 
election.  According to the president of the fund, Rozlana 
Taukina, they have received complaints from five different 
organizations about ungrounded refusals by the Ministry of 
Culture, Information and Sports to register mass media 
outlets. 
 
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CEC Approves Rules for the Election Campaign 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
8. (U) On September 16, the CEC met to approve the rules 
for campaigning.  According to Vladimir Foos, CEC 
secretary, the draft rules are based on those used in last 
 
SIPDIS 
year's Mazhilis elections. Some clarifying points and 
definitions were added. The rules regulate the procedure 
for election commissions to publish their statements in 
media, refutation statements, scheduling of publications 
and debates by candidates. Among the points clarified in 
the new rules is the requirement that the CEC will select, 
pursuant to legislation on government contracts, the media 
outlets that will carry candidate campaign materials 
funded by government resources. The rules will be 
registered with the Justice Ministry and then published. 
 
9. (U) At its September 16 meeting, the CEC also specified 
that candidates would receive 94,000 tenge (approximately 
$700) from the government for transportation.  Each 
candidate will receive a total of 5.5 million tenge 
($41,000) from the government for the election campaign. 
Candidates nominated by public organizations are entitled 
to have a campaign fund composed of a maximum of: personal 
funds (46 million tenge, or $342,000); contribution of the 
public organization that nominated the candidate (64.4 
million tenge, or $480,000); and voluntary donations by 
citizens and organizations (138 million tenge, or over $1 
million). The total election campaign fund of a candidate 
nominated by a public organization can therefore not 
exceed 248.4 million tenge ($1.85 million). The election 
fund of a self-nominated candidate cannot exceed 184 
million tenge ($1.37 million), including a maximum of 46 
million tenge ($340,000) of personal funds and 138 million 
tenge (slightly over $1 million) in voluntary donations 
from citizens and organizations. 
 
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E-voting 
-------- 
 
10.  (U) The CEC also announced plans to use the e-voting 
system Sailau, which it says was upgraded and simplified 
after last year's parliamentary elections.  The CEC stated 
that due to the OSCE's calls for gradual implementation of 
e-voting it would not be used in all polling stations. 
The plan is to use it at only 1627 precincts, or 20% of 
all precincts compared to 10% in last year's elections. 
Voters would be free to choose between electronic and 
traditional paper-ballot voting. 
 
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Nazarbayev Launches Web Site 
---------------------------- 
 
11. (SBU) In a move raising questions about the use of 
administrative resources, the Presidential Administration 
launched a new web site on September 21 dedicated to 
Nursultan Nazarbayev. The site, www.akorda.kz, has 11 
sections and more than 60 headings and contains 
information about Kazakhstan and the president in three 
languages - Kazakh, Russian and English.  Users of the 
site will be able to write a letter to President 
Nazarbayev, read his books and view photos. 
 
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Comments from the Presidential Administration 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
12. (SBU) Presidential political advisor Yermukhamed 
Yertysbayev, whose comments often foreshadow GOK policy 
shifts, shared his views on the upcoming presidential 
election on September 20 with Interfax.  Yertysbayev 
predicted that the winner would receive at least 70% of 
 
 
the vote, but declined to name the winner as "the law 
prohibits campaigning before October 25."  "The person who 
comes in second will become the national opposition leader 
and will have good chances of success during the next 
presidential election."  Yertysbayev speculated that Ak 
Zhol leader Alikhan Baimenov, who at that time had not yet 
announced his candidacy, was hesitating because he feared 
coming in third and "being consigned to political 
oblivion."  Yertysbayev commented that, in contrast to 
Baimenov, Tuyakbay was not a well-known and popular figure 
in the regions.  Yertysbayev said that there was no need 
for the President to participate in pre-election TV 
debates.  "If the President's rating was 51% and his 
principal opponent had 49%, then Mr. Nazarbayev would 
participate.  In the current situation when his rating is 
over 80%, Nazarbayev's participation in TV debates would 
lead to a decrease in electoral support.  If Tyson or 
Hollyfield fought against an amateur, would it enhance 
their prestige?"  Yertysbayev stressed that the 
authorities are interested in holding fair and transparent 
election and "as the chances of success are so good, it is 
in our interest that the maximum number of international 
observers arrive in the country to monitor the election." 
 
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International observers 
----------------------- 
 
13. (U) During a September 20 meeting in Warsaw with OSCE 
ODIHR Director Christian Strohal, CEC Chairman Onalsyn 
Zhumabekov formally invited the OSCE to monitor the 
upcoming presidential elections.  The Kazakhstani MFA 
circulated a diplomatic note to all embassies and 
international organizations on September 16 inviting 
foreign observers and mass media.  EU Commissioner 
Benita Ferrero-Waldner reportedly told FM Tokayev during 
their meeting in New-York that the EU would send an 
observation mission. 
 
14. (U) The opposition "For a Just Kazakhstan" movement 
sent an open letter to pro-presidential political parties, 
calling on them to join FJK in inviting observers from the 
Carter Center to monitor the upcoming presidential 
election.  The appeal stressed that "the Carter Center is 
a leading non-governmental institution on professional 
monitoring and objective analysis, especially in 
transition countries." 
 
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Harassment of the opposition 
---------------------------- 
 
15. (SBU) The opposition group Alga, which contains many 
members of the liquidated DCK and is still trying to 
register as a party, reports that since July the 
authorities have stepped up pressure.  Measures have 
included mass detentions of party activists, seizures of 
party advertising materials, and prosecutions.  113 
activists and members of the party advertising team have 
reportedly been detained throughout the country; 52 have 
allegedly been subjected to psychological pressure and 
threatened with assault and battery.  Five activists have 
been arrested and 15 have received administrative warning 
and have been fined.  Newspapers and other publications 
have been seized, including Azat (640 copies), Set KZ 
(12,000 copies), Pravda (5,012 copies), Zhuma-Times (2,770 
copies), Apta KZ (178 copies), Almaty-info (126 copies), 
newspaper digest supplements (3,500 copies), and Alga 
advertising materials (more than 8,500 copies).  Alga 
activists also report that 826 applications filed by 
people wanting to join the party have been illegally 
seized.  Alga has filed dozens of complaints with the 
Procuracy and MOJ, but claims to have received "trivial" 
responses. 
 
16.  (U) The FJK press service reported on September 12 
that activist Bekdulla Saduakasov was arrested in 
Kyzylorda Oblast while receiving newspapers delivered by a 
commuter bus.  See reftel for details of other FJK 
arrests. 
 
ORDWAY 
 
 
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