US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI3952

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003952 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, TW, Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT:  RULING DPP PESSIMISTIC ON DECEMBER ELECTIONS: 
CAUTIOUS REALISM OR JUST POLITICS? 
 
REF: A. TAIPEI 3804 
 
     B. TAIPEI 3793 
 
Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan, Reason(s): 
1.4 (B/D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary.  Leaders of the ruling Democratic 
Progressive Party (DPP) have been expressing pessimism about 
the party's prospects in Taiwan's December local elections. 
KMT operatives, on the other hand, have let it be known they 
are confident the party will do well in December.  Though DPP 
leaders insist they are "genuinely worried, and their 
pessimism is not a "campaign tactic," a similar pairing of 
DPP low expectations and KMT overconfidence before the past 
two presidential elections, the 2001 LY election, and the May 
14, 2005, National Assembly election ended in DPP victory. 
KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou, who predicted KMT victory before 
the May 14 election, has been noticeably more circumspect 
this go-round, but how he plays the psychological dynamics of 
the election will be a bellwether of his own leadership style 
and capabilities in the run up to the 2007 legislative and 
2008 presidential elections.  End Summary. 
 
DPP Down in the Dumps 
--------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Taiwan media have been reporting that DPP leaders are 
cautious, even pessimistic, regarding the party's chances in 
the December 3 city mayor/county magistrate elections.  When 
AIT asked DPP Deputy Secretary General Yan Wan-chin about 
these reports on September 20, he confirmed that party 
leaders are "very concerned" about the party's elections 
prospects.  Yan did acknowledge that DPP negativism before 
the May 14 National Assembly election may have played a 
strategic part in the DPP victory in that election, but he 
insisted DPP leaders really are "genuinely worried" and not 
"playing politics."  This negative DPP assessment, he 
explained, is based on a realistic assessment of current 
political realities, notably the rise of KMT Chairman and 
Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou, and on internal DPP public opinion 
polls. 
 
3.  (C) Contrary to the public optimism voiced by some DPP 
candidates, Yan said, internal DPP public opinion polls 
indicate the party is in trouble.  He dismissed DPP Taichung 
mayoral candidate Lin Chia-lung's public optimism (Ref A), 
telling AIT that internal DPP polls showed Lin with little or 
no chance of beating incumbent KMT Mayor Jason Hu.  Yan 
explained that people are upset with President Chen and have 
a low opinion of the DPP and the DPP government.  A series of 
scandals involving special treatment for the President, the 
Kaohsiung MTR, and protests by Thai laborers have hurt the 
ruling party, Yan insisted.  (Note:  DPP elder and Control 
Yuan President Yao Chia-wen separately told AIT that support 
for the DPP island-wide had declined, but the "deep Green" 
Yao attributed this decline to Chen's departure from DPP 
independence principles, in contrast to the reasons given by 
the more moderate New Tider, Yan Wan-chin.  End Note.)  While 
the DPP's "One Queen and Three Kings" (Vice President Annette 
Lu, Premier Frank Hsieh, Presidential Secretary General Yu 
Shyi-kun, and DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang) will campaign for 
DPP candidates this Fall, Yan told AIT, they will do so 
independently, will not coordinate with Party central or each 
other, and will push their own 2008-related agendas. 
 
4.  (C) The DPP, Yan told AIT, is placing its hopes on three 
counties -- Taipei, Yunlin, and Penghu.  Ilan County is a 
dead heat.  Yan expressed optimism only regarding the 
all-important Taipei County magistrate election, telling AIT 
that internal DPP polls have shown DPP candidate Lo Wen-jia 
steadily ahead of KMT candidate Chou Hsi-wei from the outset, 
in contrast to other polling organizations that have shown Lo 
pulling from behind only in the past week to pass Chou.  Yan 
dismissed candidate Chou's pledge the previous day to rent 
out the Magistrate's office and relocate to a trailer in 
order to both save money and stay in touch with voters. 
Taipei County voters, Yan scoffed, are too sophisticated to 
fall for such political games, and besides it would probably 
be illegal. 
 
How DPP Deals with Electoral Pessimism 
-------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Yan told AIT that the DPP is planning a vigorous 
campaign to overcome this pessimistic assessment.  First, the 
party will make an "early announcement" of its nominees next 
week, he said, to get a jump-start on campaigning.  Second, 
the DPP will launch a vigorous "negative campaign" against 
the KMT, targeting both Taipei Mayor and KMT Chairman Ma 
Ying-jeou and Taipei City.  The DPP will highlight the 
excessive funding Taipei City receives from the central 
government in order to tap into both Taipei County 
resentments and island-wide indignation at Taipei City's 
preferential treatment.  In response to AIT's comment that 
this "excessive funding" came from the Executive Yuan (EY) 
run by the ruling DPP, Yan responded that such details do not 
matter during the heat of a campaign. 
 
PM Hsieh on the Presidential Skids? 
----------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) The December local city mayor/county magistrate 
elections, Yan told AIT, could have a profound impact on the 
party's 2008 presidential nomination and prospects.  PM 
Hsieh's premiership and his presidential prospects, Yan 
continued, have been seriously damaged by the gridlock that 
has hobbled the government since Hsieh took office in January 
2005.  This leaves DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang as the most 
viable DPP presidential candidate at this still early date, 
Yan argued, since Vice President Annette Lu and Presidential 
Secretary General Yu Shyi-kun have "absolutely no chance." 
 
SIPDIS 
Explaining that his own DPP New Tide faction strongly 
supports Su and opposes Hsieh (the latter "on purely personal 
grounds," Yan acknowledged), Yan queried AIT about Su's 
performance during his visit to Washington earlier this 
Summer -- how well did Su convey himself in Washington and 
how did Americans respond to him?  There is one major 
obstacle to a Su 2008 nomination, Yan explained:  the 
December 2005 local elections, loss of which would severely 
damage Su's presidential prospects.  (Comment:  Yan has his 
own ax to grind here as a member of the New Tide faction; 
until the Kaohsiung transit scandal reported Ref B, we had 
been hearing pretty much the exact opposite -- that Hsieh was 
receiving credit both within the DPP and among Taiwan voters 
for reaching out to the "Pan-Blue" opposition.  End Comment.) 
 
Comment:  Been There, Deja Vu 
----------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) DPP leaders may be "genuinely worried" about the 
party's prospects on December 3, as Yan insisted. 
Nevertheless, the emerging scenario of DPP pessimism and KMT 
confidence is eerily reminiscent of previous elections, when 
DPP leaders expressed pessimism and KMT leaders, Mayor Ma in 
particular, proclaimed confidence in winning.  DPP pessimism 
served to mobilize supporters and KMT optimism kept 
supporters at home.  Though they express surprise at the very 
idea, DPP leaders are certainly aware of the electoral 
effectiveness of pessimism and may be employing it once again 
for the December local elections. 
KEEGAN