US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI3947

C O N F I D E N T I A L TAIPEI 003947 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, MARR, TW, Domestic Politics, Cross Strait Politics, Foreign Policy, Military Issues 
SUBJECT: SEPTEMBER 25 RALLY IN TAIPEI TO DEFEND TAIWAN, 
PASS THE DEFENSE SPECIAL BUDGET, AND CHANGE NAME 
 
 
Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan, Reason(s): 
1.4 (B/D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary.  A group of pro-independence organizations 
plan a march and rally on Sunday, September 25, to 
"Strengthen National Defense and Defend Taiwan."  The stated 
purpose of the rally is to demand the Legislative Yuan (LY) 
pass the long-delayed Defense Procurement Special Budget.  In 
the course of the rally and march, organizers plan to raise 
the politically sensitive "constitutional reform" and "name 
change" slogans.  The highly visible identification of 
pro-independence organizations and themes with the Defense 
Special Budget will likely further complicate chances of the 
latter's passage.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (SBU) The "Hand-in-Hand to Protect Taiwan Grand 
Alliance," composed of a who's who of pro-independence 
leaders and organizations, has announced it will hold a march 
in Taipei on Sunday, September 25, in conjunction with the 
Fifth World Taiwanese Congress (Shijie Taiwanren Dahui).  The 
stated goal of the march is to build public support for the 
Legislative Yuan (LY) to pass the Defense Procurement Special 
Budget, a USD 11.6 billion package of defensive weapons 
systems the U.S. has agreed to sell to Taiwan, in order to 
strengthen Taiwan's defense.  An Alliance staffer told AIT 
that organizers expect around 50,000 people to march Sunday. 
The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) announced it 
will mobilize 10,000 supporters to join the march, which will 
start at 3:00 p.m. at the Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall and 
end on nearby Ketagalan Boulevard, the broad street/square in 
front of the Presidential Palace, where former President Lee 
Teng-hui is scheduled to speak. 
 
3.  (U) Speaking at a press conference in Taipei on September 
8, former President Lee called on the people of Taiwan to 
join the parade and protest opposition parties' continuing 
blockage of the Defense Special Budget in the LY.  This would 
also demonstrate their commitment to oppose a PRC invasion of 
Taiwan.  Lee also called for drafting a new constitution and 
changing the country's official name. 
 
4.  (C) A day-long conference at the Grand Hotel the 
preceding day, Saturday, will feature speeches and workshops. 
 Former President Lee was scheduled to give the keynote 
address Saturday morning but had to cancel, DPP elder and 
Control Yuan President Yao Chia-wen told AIT, because of 
severe back pain.  Lee requested the strongly 
pro-independence Yao to speak in his stead.  The conference 
and march are, Yao explained, an effort to get the DPP back 
on track.  He lamented the declining popularity of the party 
that he helped found and earlier served as Chairman, a 
decline which he attributed to DPP President Chen Shui-bian's 
departure from the founding principles of the DPP, including 
recognition of Taiwan separate identity and independence.  A 
new constitution and name change, Yao said, were essential to 
get the DPP and Taiwan back on the right track. 
 
5.  (C) Comment.  This high profile attempt to identify the 
Defense Procurement Special Budget with pro-independence 
themes can only further complicate chances the Special Budget 
or any of its constituent elements will ever see the LY 
floor.  While it is impossible to predict the crowd the rally 
will draw, it is clearly a lose-lose situation for the 
defense procurement budget.  Pan-Blue opponents will claim a 
small turn-out proves the budget lacks popular support; they 
will alternatively claim a large turn-out proves that a 
stronger defense will encourage pro-independence forces and 
increase cross-Strait tensions.  End Comment. 
KEEGAN