US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK6119

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 006119 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: NONE 
TAGS: PGOV, TH, Elections - Thai 
SUBJECT: THAILAND'S ELECTION HOOLIGANS -- ELECTION 
COMMISSION LOWERS THE BOOM 
 
 
1.    (SBU) SUMMARY.  The Election Commission of Thailand 
(ECT) on September 20 issued  red cards, and  yellow 
cards, to 4 elected Members of Parliament (MP,s) for 
election irregularities stemming from last February,s 
elections.  One member of the Democrat Party received a red 
card (meaning 1 year suspension from politics and vacation of 
his/her seat), while 3 members of the Thai Rak Thai party 
received yellow cards (for lesser offenses, calling for a 
rerun of the vote).  Two other MP,s from the Democrat Party 
and Mahachon Party were also recommended for red cards by the 
ECT, but the latter reconsidered after a second look by the 
Official of the Judicial Council.  At the same time, 
investigations into 2 of the 5 members of the ECT may result 
in their expulsions from the posts, invalidating the 
penalties handed out by the ECT.  By-elections for all 4 MP 
seats will take place in late October.  END SUMMARY. 
 
INDEPENDENT ELECTION COMMISSION EXERCISES CONSIDERABLE POWER 
TO NULLIFY POLLS 
 
2.    (SBU) The ECT draws its powers from the Constitution of 
1997.  The Election Commission consists of a Chairman and 
four other commissioners appointed by the King, who receives 
his recommendations after lengthy deliberations by the 
Senate.  The 5 members of the ECT are supposed to be 
 persons of apparent political impartiality and integrity., 
 The purpose of the ECT is to investigate all accusations of 
election irregularities at the federal level.  The members 
are appointed for a seven year term, and the existing ECT is 
the second such team to be in place since their power was 
established by the Constitution. 
 
HOW THE PROCESS WORKS 
 
3.    (SBU)  In theory, anyone can raise charges against a 
candidate for breaking the campaigning rules.  When an 
accusation is made against a candidate, the ECT reviews the 
allegations and determines the level of severity of the 
violation(s) levied against them.  There are two levels of 
severity and thus two levels of punishment:   Red Cards, 
and  Yellow Cards,, with the Red Cards being the more 
serious of the two.  The ECT cannot issue a Red Card or a 
Yellow Card unless there is a unanimous decision by the 
committee.  Everyone who receives a Red Card or a Yellow Card 
from the ECT must give up their seat in Parliament.  To fill 
these newly vacant seats, a special by-election will be held 
approximately 45 days after the ECT issues the Red Cards and 
Yellow Cards.  Yellow Card recipients are allowed to run as a 
candidate in the special election, but Red Card recipients 
are barred from running for office for a period of one year 
and are also subject to criminal charges.  Whereas Yellow 
Card penalties are final, a Red Card recipient can appeal 
their case to the Supreme Court.  There is no set procedure 
for the conduct of the ECT,s investigations, and the actual 
methods of investigation are considered somewhat of an 
enigma.  Despite this, the lack of set procedure has not 
caused any controversy in Thai politics. 
 
4.    (SBU)  If the ECT unanimously decides to issue a red 
card or a yellow card, the results are forwarded to the 
Office of the Judicial Council (OJC), which is also known as 
the Council of State, for a second look.  Cases that do not 
have a unanimous decision are dismissed.  The OJC is a 
council of 12 members from various organizations within the 
Ministry of Justice, whose members range from political 
appointees to independent judges.  The OJC reviews each case 
and forwards their recommendation back to the ECT.  The 
recommendation will be to either agree or disagree with the 
findings of the ECT, and only requires a majority of the 12 
council members.  The ECT is not bound to follow the 
recommendation of the OJC, so if the latter disagrees with 
the ECT,s initial findings, the ECT can still opt, 
presumably after serious consideration, to issue the penalty. 
 
 
SEVERAL DELAYS IN ECT'S DELIBERATIONS THIS TIME AROUND 
 
5.    (SBU)  The results from this election,s review were 
noticeably overdue compared to the January 2001 election. 
Whereas it only took the ECT 2 weeks to hand out penalties in 
2001, the February 2005 election penalties have been delayed 
4 times over a period of 7 months.  Over the past week, there 
have been several short delays, indicating that the ECT 
members were close to a decision but couldn,t achieve 
finality.  The situation was similar to that of a hung jury: 
everyone had to agree to find a candidate guilty or the ECT 
cannot issue a penalty.  Although the stated reason for the 
delay was to allow one of the ECT members time to return from 
his official trip observing the elections in Japan, it is 
likely that the ECT was arguing over the fates of several 
suspect MP's.  Specifically, the OJC disagreed with the 
ECT,s decision over two of the three MP,s recommended for 
red cards, and the ECT is very sensitive to public perception 
about their decisions.  These include whispered rumors of 
government influence over who will receive the cards, and who 
should not.  One member of the Democrat party, Opposition 
Chief Whip Sathit Wongnongtoey, has gone on the record by 
stating &the ECT,s reputation has been tainted by 
speculation the government could sway ECT decisions.8 
6.  (SBU)  When the dust settled, there was only one big 
loser:  MP Thanin Chaisamut of Satun Constituency 2 received 
a red card because some of his campaign speeches contained 
malicious comments, and because his campaign illegally 
distributed VCD,s of last October,s Tak Bai anti-riot 
operation and blamed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra for 
the bloodshed.  Thanin has filed criminal charges against the 
head of the ECT, Police General Vasana Phoemlap, alleging 
that he illegally appointed 1,200 election monitors in the 
Satun Constituency.  The facts are not clear as to whether 
Vasana had the power to appoint the monitors on his own, or 
if he had consulted with the other four members of the ECT 
before doing so.  If Vasana is found guilty of exercising 
powers beyond his authority, there is a possibility that it 
would nullify the results of the ECT, and Thanin would be 
allowed to keep his position as MP.  In the interim, the 
ruling stands but the Democrat Party will be allowed to name 
a replacement candidate for the by-election in late October. 
 
7.  (SBU)  The three yellow card recipients, all TRT members, 
will have the right to participate in the by-elections late 
next month for the right to retain their seat.  They are: Mr. 
Nawin Bunset of Phichit Constituency 3; Mr. Phayap Pankhet of 
Singburi Constituency 1; and Mr. Prasaeng Mongkhonsiri of 
Uthai Thani Constituency 1.  All three candidates are alleged 
to have bribed voters.  The TRT has already publicly endorsed 
all three candidates in their election ambitions.  The most 
interesting situation among the three involves the candidates 
from Phichit.  The ECT disqualified Nawin because he is 
alleged to have offered voters 500 baht each (about $12.50 
USD) for their vote.  Nawin is the son of TRT MP Adul Bunset, 
and he narrowly beat out incumbent Siriwat Kachornprasart of 
the Mahachon party.  Siriwat,s father, Sanan Kachornprasart, 
is the leader of the Mahachon party.  While Adul was 
described as &furious8 over the ECT,s decision about his 
son, Sanan said he would petition election monitors from 
Bangkok to supervise his son,s by)election. 
 
CLOSE CALL FOR OTHER MP'S 
 
8.  (SBU)  In addition to these four, there are two MP's who 
were considered for red cards but did not receive them. 
These 'winners' are Mr. Sata Awaekuechi of Pattani 
Constituency 4, a member of the Democrat party; and Mr. Tun 
Chintawet of Ubon Ratchathani Constituency 11, a member of 
the Mahachon party.  Sata was alleged to have defamed his 
opponent in Yawi, the native tongue of Malay-Thais in parts 
of Southern Thailand.  Tun was accused of campaigning after 
the election deadline because he made a gesture outside his 
voting booth on election day that was interpreted as a signal 
for voters to selection his election number.  In both cases, 
the OJC recommended that these charges be dropped because 
there was insufficient supporting evidence. 
 
ECT ITSELF UNDER FIRE 
 
9.    (SBU)  Despite the issuing of the red and yellow cards 
by the ECT, the decisions are clouded by the possibility that 
they will be invalidated due to the allegations made against 
2 of the 5 members of the ECT.  The two members under fire 
are Mr. Charan Buranaphansi and Police General Vasana 
Phoemlap (see paragraph 6, above).  Charan is accused of 
malfeasance while serving as the Director General of the 
Department of Probations.  When Charan was considered for 
another government post in 2000, the National 
Counter-Corruption Commission (NCCC) conducted an 
investigation and cleared him on all charges; the next year, 
a group of officers from the Ministry of the Justice began 
another investigation for the same charges.  The 
investigation remained dormant for several years, until it 
resurfaced this month when officials from the Ministry of 
Justice (appointed by the Thaksin administration) concluded 
that Charan violated civil service rules over a 
government-funded project in 2000.  At least one member of 
Charan,s staff has openly questioned the timing of this 
 conclusion,, given that the results are being released at 
a time when several members of the TRT are being implicated 
for election fraud; however, the subject has become unusually 
quiet even in the hours following the announcement, 
suggesting to some that the TRT is content with just 
receiving yellow cards and supporting their candidates to the 
full.  If either of these Commissioners are found guilty, it 
would invalidate their earlier decisions to Red/Yellow card 
MP's and force the process to begin again at square one. 
 
10.   Comment.  It is not surprising that the ECT members 
took a long time to release the results of their 
investigation, as it indicates their collective decisions 
were not unified.  With each and all the penalties requiring 
a unanimous consensus, the process can stretch interminably. 
Also, possibly more than any other government entity, the ECT 
is very sensitive to public perception, especially 
accusations that the nominally independent ECT is subject 
pressures and blandishments from the Thaksin administration. 
Although many people will continue to support the ECT and 
claim their decisions were made rationally, fairly, and in 
good conscience, critics of the ECT will likely cite the 
awarding of the sole red card to an opposition MP as evidence 
of the ECT's susceptibility to the TRT government's 
influence.  End Comment. 
BOYCE