US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV5799

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 005799 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KWBG, IS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, GOI EXTERNAL, GOI INTERNAL 
SUBJECT: MOFAZ: CALM ALLOWS GOI TO HOLD OFF GAZA ACTION, 
GROUND ASSAULT DISTANT LAST RESORT, DESPITE PREPARATIONS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz told Ambassador 
Jones September 25 that the day's calm, after some than 36 
hours of Qassam rocket launches and IDF counterattacks, is 
allowing the GOI to stand back and avoid any further strikes 
on Palestinian targets.  He said any possible ground force 
action would come only if Palestinian attacks continue over 
time and only when and if all other means of countering those 
attacks fail, but he indicated that the GOI clearly prefers a 
return to the pre-September 23 calm.  He added, however, that 
Israel cannot accept attacks from Gaza even in response to 
its terrorist-hunting actions in the West Bank.  Asked 
whether the Likud Central Committee will vote to hold early 
primaries, against the strong wishes of Prime Minister 
Sharon, Mofaz said he believe that the majority of Central 
Committee members will act rationally, and not vote for early 
primaries that would put their party out of office earlier 
than the elections scheduled for November 2006.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) In their introductory meeting September 25, Defense 
Minister Shaul Mofaz told the Ambassador that Israel seeks to 
preserve the calm that has existed since the abatement of 
Friday's and Saturday's Qassam rocket attacks.  While Israel 
has launched counter-strikes and has forces prepared for 
further action, the GOI hopes that Hamas will stand down. 
Asked whether the weekend's violence would affect the Likud 
Central Committee vote on whether to hold early party 
primaries, Mofaz said that Israelis "understand and are not 
influenced by such things."  He added that a ground forces 
assault on Gaza would be "the last step we'd take," and only 
if all "other measures don't work."  He stressed that Israel 
retains capability to strike where it wants, and that its 
intelligence assets in Gaza remain strong, despite no longer 
having forces within the Gaza Strip.  Only if casualties 
continue to mount over a period of time would leaders resort 
to a ground assault, he said.  (NOTE: Army attache on site 
near Gaza at 1600 hours local September 25 reports some 40 
APCs, 20 Merkava tanks, seven or eight D-9 bulldozers, and 
three laser designator teams, all indicating buildup to 
brigade-size force.) 
 
3.  (C) Mofaz described the Palestinian Authority as a 
one-man show, in which that man, President Abbas, wants to 
achieve the Palestinians' long-standing goals, but not by 
violence.  Beneath Abbas in the chain of command, however, he 
faces a fractured team, with PA Prime Minister Qurei 
politically strong and against him, and Interior Minister 
Nasser Yusif weak and supporting him.  Most loyal, he said, 
is Finance Minister Salam Fayyad, who enjoys excellent 
standing with Israel and the international community, but is 
weak within the PA. 
 
4.  (C) In addition, said Mofaz, the PA security forces are 
weak, not because of any lack of arms or means, but because 
of lack of motivation and courage to act against terror 
organizations.  He cited Gaza NSF commander Suleiman Hillas 
as a single example of a strong commander, but termed most of 
the others "against each other."  Abbas, he said, is a long 
way from achieving his Sharm El Sheikh agreement pledge of 
one authority, one gun.  Mofaz said that when he met with 
Abbas about six months ago, Abbas told him the one thing he 
needed was time -- six months.  Abbas clearly did not realize 
what he faced, Mofaz said.  Abbas's policy is to contain the 
terror organizations because he feels that he is weak and 
cannot take stronger action.  He doesn't have one man 
controlling all his security groups.  Dahlan, he said, is 
strong, but wants the civil affairs portfolio for now because 
he wants to "serve his own future" and avoid conflict with 
Hamas and other groups.  Dahlan and Yusif are like a dog and 
cat, Mofaz said, with Dahlan made strong by virtue of his 
status, loyal troops and money. 
 
5.  (C) Mofaz termed Hamas the strongest of the terror 
organizations and the organization that most clearly paints 
itself as the alternative to Abbas and the Palestinian 
authority.  Despite Israeli targeted killings of its leaders 
over the past five years, the group "is still strong," and is 
using Israel's disengagement from Gaza to claim success for 
its efforts.  Mofaz suggested that Hamas will now try to 
maintain the calm through the January PLC elections, building 
its support among the population.  Whether Hamas decides on 
its own or under the influence of Abbas to avoid conflict, it 
will keep a low profile. 
 
6.  (C) Mofaz said he considers economic development key to 
strengthening Abbas and enablinghim to succees in Gaza 
post-disengagement. Mofas said he is working with Quartet 
Special Envoy James Wolfensohn on passages and other means to 
improve commerce and travel.  Wolfensohn, he said, has a good 
master plan, and has held several valuable trilateral talks. 
Key elements now are to improve the system of passages, 
change the policy in the passages to eventually move to 
door-to-door transport rather than back-to-back, and secure 
the outside support to the PA necessary to make it all 
happen.  He cited Wolfensohn's plan for $3 billion in 
assistance in each of the next three years, combined with 
private investment, as key to getting Palestinians to support 
Abbas. 
 
7.  (C) Mofaz briefly detailed the months of talks over the 
Rafah crossing, saying that he hopes to resume talks as soon 
as possible now that the Qassam launches appear to have 
stopped.  He charged that after Israel withdrew from the 
Philadelphi corridor, "a tsunami of Palestinians," thousands 
of rifles, hundreds of thousands of rounds of ammunition, and 
a ton and a half of explosives came into Gaza.  He pointed 
out that before the violence began on Friday, Israel had 
agreed to Egyptian requests that the Rafah passage be opened 
Friday for transit of students, and that was done.  Even on 
Saturday, Israel agreed to allow 500 more people to cross, 
however, now the passage is closed, he said.  The passage is 
now closed, he said.  Asked whether construction of a new 
terminal on the Egyptian side of the crossing at Kerem Shalom 
could delay any prospective opening there, Mofaz said the 
Egyptians are planning to use their current terminal, at 
Rafah, to process travelers.  Since buses are already used to 
transport travelers between the Egyptian and the Gaza 
terminals at Rafah, the Egyptians can simply process people 
in and out through their Rafah terminal and bus them the 
additional two kilometers to Kerem Shalom. 
 
8.  (C) Mofaz acknowledged that the weekend's cycle of 
violence began with Friday's IDF killing of three PIJ 
militants near Tulkarm in the West Bank, but said both Israel 
and the PA know that Israel was not responsible for the 
Friday explosion in Jabalya that killed 19, as Hamas claims. 
Mofaz asserted that Israel cannot accept that Hamas 
explosives kill Palestinians and then Israel pays the price. 
He said most Palestinians know that Israel has taken 
difficult steps by withdrawing from Gaza and parts of the 
West Bank.  They also know and understand that Israel will 
continue to target Hamas and PIJ militants who try to kill 
Israelis, and that Israel will do it in a "very surgical 
way."  He suggested that that understanding underlies the 
calm that has been maintained following the various strikes 
and counterstrikes.  Mofaz stressed that the roadmap is the 
way ahead, but that Israel insists on Palestinian fulfillment 
of all its security obligations under phase one, while Abbas 
wants to move directly to phase three final status talks. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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