US embassy cable - 05ABUDHABI4045

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABU DHABI 004045 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/I, NEA/ARPI 
ALSO FOR S/I AMB JAMES JEFFREY 
NSC FOR CHARLES DUNNE 
TREASURY FOR LARRY MCDONALD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, IZ, IR, SA, SY, PK, TC 
SUBJECT: MBZ ON IRAQ, EXTREMISM, PALESTINIANS, SAUDIS 
 
REF: A. ABU DHABI 4025 
 
     B. STATE 175071 
     C. ABU DHABI 713 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin 
Zayed (MbZ) told Ambassador and a visiting delegation led by 
retired U.S. four-star generals over dinner September 20 that 
he expected the Iraqi people would approve a new Constitution 
on October 15.  MbZ reiterated his support for former Iraqi 
PM Iyad Allawi as the person best suited to lead Iraq.  He 
advised against a premature U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq. 
He further indicated that the Iraqis would probably be 
receptive to having certain Arab forces on their soil, but he 
criticized Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa sharply 
for blocking such initiatives in the past.  He offered 
insights about the threat of Islamic extremism in the UAE and 
the region, and identified Hizballah as a greater terrorist 
threat than Al Qaida.  MbZ also commented on prospects for 
Middle East peace, Saudi Arabia's leadership, and Pakistan 
President Musharraf's strong stance against terrorism.  End 
Summary 
 
2. (SBU) On September 20, a delegation from the Business 
Executives for National Security (BENS) led by the 
organization's president and chief executive officer, General 
(Ret.) Charles G. Boyd, met with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince 
Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed primarily to discuss the security 
and political situation in Iraq.  BENS visited the UAE at the 
urging of CENTCOM Commander General Abizaid.  General Boyd 
was accompanied by General (Ret.) Wayne Downing, Chairman, 
Combating Terrorism Center; James Kimsey, Founding Chairman 
of AOL; Joseph Robert, real estate developer; Eric Flanning, 
BENS Strategic Development Senior Vice President; and Lt. 
Col. David Dawson, CENTCOM action officer.  Also attending 
the meeting were Ambassador, USLO Chief, and Pol Chief.  MbZ 
was accompanied by UAE Commander of Special Forces, General 
Juma, and MbZ advisers Yousef Al Otaiba and Jack McGuinness. 
 
Referendum on Iraq's Constitution 
--------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) The BENS delegation asked MbZ for his views on the 
October 15 referendum on the Iraqi Constitution, and on the 
likelihood of Sunni support.  MbZ said he believed the Iraqis 
would adopt a new Constitution.  He recommended the U.S. try 
to "get the maximum percentage of Sunnis to support it." 
Ambassador thanked MbZ for UAEG efforts to engage the Iraqis 
on supporting the political process.  MbZ then noted his 
support for former Iraqi PM Iyad Allawi as "the only" Iraqi 
political figure capable of holding the country together. 
Iraqi officials needed laws to punish corrupt officials, said 
MbZ, citing Ahmed Chalabi specifically.  He pointedly 
criticized the USG for "bringing in rogue people to run 
Iraq." 
 
U.S. Forces in Iraq 
------------------- 
 
4. (C) Delegation members solicited ideas on how the Bush 
Administration could explain to the American public why the 
U.S. military should remain in Iraq, particularly now that 
the public sees the massive reconstruction effort that is 
required in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.  MbZ 
contended that the situation in Iraq would be "much worse" if 
U.S. forces were to withdraw prematurely.  From an energy 
perspective, "you would need to have the capability to 
produce the amount of oil and gas you are pumping from the 
(Iraqi) soil."  From a security perspective, a premature 
withdrawal could cause upheaval in the whole region.  "It's a 
real danger," MbZ said.Ambassador previewed the upcoming 
visit of Ambassador Jeffrey and team to discuss with the UAEG 
how we can strengthen mutual efforts in support of Iraq. 
(Note: She had previewed the Jeffrey visit September 18 with 
MbZ's brother, MinState for Foreign Affairs Sheikh Hamdan )- 
ref A. End note.) 
Arab Forces in Iraq 
------------------- 
 
5. (C) The BENS delegation asked what the USG could do  to 
reach out to the Arab world to persuade Arabs to help in 
Iraq.  "Your problem in the Arab world is not with the Arab 
world; it's with (Arab League Secretary General) Amr Moussa," 
MbZ said, criticizing Moussa for blocking any initiative that 
included other Arab states assisting Iraq.  He said Moussa 
twice lobbied against GCC proposals to deploy a GCC force to 
Iraq.  Without Moussa at the helm of the Arab League, "you 
could find a breakthrough with every Arab nation," MbZ 
opined.  He said Moroccan, Tunisian, and Yemeni troops might 
be acceptable to the Iraqis, but not Egyptians or Syrians. 
(Note: Later in the dinner conversation, MbZ suggested having 
the Saudis and Egyptians send "a couple of divisions" to 
Afghanistan in support of Operation Enduring Freedom.  The 
UAE has approximately 250 Special Operations troops in 
Afghanistan at present.) 
 
Iraq's Insurgency 
----------------- 
 
6. (C) Ambassador highlighted the need for continued pressure 
on Syria to respect Iraqi sovereignty, and asked for UAE 
assistance in this regard.  The BENS delegation and MbZ both 
expressed concern about the potential for the insurgency in 
Iraq overflowing into Jordan.  MbZ noted the impact Jordan's 
collapse would have on Israel.  In MbZ's estimation, King 
Abdullah is "the only one who could hold Jordan together." 
MbZ noted that he heard from his brother Sheikh Hamdan that 
Ambassador had urged continued UAE support to Jordan to ease 
fuel cost pressures there (ref A).  (Note: We believe the 
final decision on additional UAE cash assistance to Jordan 
now rests with President Khalifa.  End note.) 
 
Countering Islamic Extremism in the Region 
------------------------------------------ 
 
7. (C) MbZ devoted much of his reflection to the threat of 
Islamic extremism and the UAE's efforts to combat it.  He 
warned of dangerous repercussions for the region should the 
Saudi regime collapse, saying it constituted a greater threat 
to the UAE than a nuclear-capable Iran.  He dismissed Saudi 
claims that they were succeeding in combating extremist 
militants.  How can you say you are successful when Saudi 
security forces have thus far failed to stop the militants' 
operations, he asked.  In contrast, as soon as the UAEG 
learned who was responsible for the September 11 attacks in 
the United States, it acted immediately to counter Islamic 
radicalization in the UAE. 
 
8. (C) MbZ said he considered Hizballah a more dangerous 
organization than Al Qaida, echoing what his brother 
Abdullah, the UAE's Information Minister, told S/CT 
Coordinator Henry Crumpton in New York September 14 (ref B). 
(Comment: During her visit to the UAE on February 7, White 
House Homeland Security Adviser Fran Townsend told Director 
of UAE State Security Department Sheikh Hazza bin Zayed that 
Iran needed to stop sponsoring terrorism and cease supporting 
Hizballah, and she requested any UAE cooperation in that 
regard ) ref C.  Hazza had agreed to ongoing operational 
cooperation in the UAE targeting Hizballah and Iranian MOIS. 
End comment) 
 
9. (C) MbZ said that he believed in a free press, but was 
concerned that people in the Middle East were "not getting" a 
free press.  In part, this is because terrorists had gotten 
the upper hand and used the Internet and television to 
promote their agenda, he said.  MbZ underscored the 
importance of moderate Islamic teachings as a counterweight 
to extremist ideology.  "If you ground is solid, there is no 
problem," he said.  MbZ said he also supports the idea of 
introducing democratic reforms, such as elections, to the 
region, as long as Islamic extremists did not win a majority. 
 "We will have it in our own time. ... I have no problem with 
an elected government.  But will it make things worse or 
better?"  Kimsey praised the UAE for taking a leadership role 
in combating extremism and serving as a model for other Arab 
states. 
 
Middle East Peace 
----------------- 
 
10. (C) On Middle East peace, MbZ urged support for 
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in his efforts to gain a 
stronger grip on Hamas and Islamic Jihad.  MbZ also hailed 
the Gaza disengagement as a "brave move" on the part of the 
Israelis.  In response to Ambassador's question about Prime 
Minister Sharon's statement at UNGA regarding Arab acceptance 
of Israel, MbZ said it was "not a smart move" and asked 
rhetorically what Sharon's objective was.  MbZ said there 
needs to be a "breakthrough" to achieve a two-state solution, 
characterizing the current state of the peace process as 
being akin to "bargaining in a fish market." 
 
Saudi Leadership 
---------------- 
 
11. (C) MbZ also took a jab at Saudi Arabia's aging 
leadership, saying the Kingdom &needs a retirement system," 
and adding that Prince Bandar was the only one effective 
Saudi interlocutor. 
 
Pakistani Leadership 
-------------------- 
 
12. (C) Noting President Musharraf's address at UNGA, MbZ 
praised the Pakistani leader for "taking tough positions" 
against terrorism in the face of tough neighbors.  MbZ 
expressed some concern about Musharraf's longevity, but did 
not elaborate. 
 
13. (U) Baghdad minimize considered. 
SISON