US embassy cable - 05LAGOS1480

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001480 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/W 
STATE FOR INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, NI 
SUBJECT: SOLID MINERALS MINISTER EZEKWESILI SHARES HER 
SUCCESSION THOUGHTS 
 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reason 1.4 (D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  In an August conversation with the Consul 
General, Minister of Solid Minerals Oby Ezekwesili stressed 
the President will step down in 2007.  Despite urging from 
several quarters to prolong his tenure, Obasanjo wants to 
make room for a reformer from the next generation of Nigerian 
politicians.  Obasanjo vehemently opposed the presidential 
aspirations of former head of state Babangida, Vice President 
Atiku and former Lagos military governor Marwa, said 
Ezekwesili, a member of Obasanjo's inner circle of economics 
reformers.  To off-balance his enemies, to keep his allies on 
his side for as long as possible, and to prevent himself from 
being deemed a lameduck, Obasanjo will not reveal his true 
intentions (retirement) until the eleventh hour, Ezekwesili 
forecasted.  End summary. 
 
OBASANJO GENERATION'S FINAL CHAPTER? 
------------------------------------ 
 
2.  (C) During a late August conversation, Solid Minerals 
Minister Oby Ezekwesili told the Consul General that 
President Obasanjo was under tremendous pressure to remain in 
office beyond 2007.  In addition to the political hacks and 
presidential courtiers who flock to Aso Villa, Obasanjo was 
being pressed by some respected voices inside and outside 
Nigeria.  These voices were hard for Obasanjo to ignore, 
Ezekwesili maintained.  Most of Nigeria's leading businessmen 
have privately asked Obasanjo to continue in office.  Many 
African leaders have also given private counsel that he 
should stay for the good of the continent.  (Comment: 
Ezekwesili acknowledged that some leaders who wanted Obasanjo 
to remain were acting in their own benighted self-interest. 
Many of the leaders want to remain in power themselves. 
Should Obasanjo extend his tenure, it would make it 
fashionable for them to do the same.  Something similar can 
be said of Obasanjo's support among Nigerian business 
leaders.  The administration has been good to certain key 
businesspeople and they to it.  Predictably, these business 
figures would like to continue this profitable relationship. 
End comment.) 
 
3.  (C) Nevertheless, Ezekwesili said President Obasanjo 
would step aside for a like-minded reformer of the next 
generation of Nigerian politicians.  Ezekwesili, a close and 
staunch supporter of the President, said she has discussed 
the issue with the President several times.  During each 
discussion, his focus has been on protecting his legacy as a 
democratic reformer.  The only way to do this was to 
relinquish power in 2007.  While in the short term the 
benefits to remaining are clearly apparent, Obasanjo feared 
that tinkering with the constitution could do long-term harm 
by setting a precedent that could allow a truly ruthless 
individual to perpetuate himself in power.  Conversely, the 
problems with leaving office in 2007 were manifold; much work 
needed to be done on many fronts to ensure democracy takes 
firm root.  The most obvious problem was the identification 
of a successor.  Obasanjo thought it time to close the book 
on his generation, with his administration being the final 
chapter for a generation that has ruled and more often 
misruled Nigeria for over roughly 30 years, Ezekwesili opined. 
 
4.  (C) Ezekwesili stressed that Obasanjo recoiled from the 
notion of Vice President Atiku, former Head of State 
Babangida or former Lagos Governor Marwa succeeding him. 
Leaving Nigeria in the hands of one of these three, who 
currently are the PDP's leading candidates, was a prospect 
that tormented the President.  Ezekwesili declared, "Never, 
never, never!" to the idea of one of this trio ascending to 
the presidency.  Ezekwesili stressed Obasanjo was seriously 
ruminating about the question of his successor.  She thought 
the President would suffer the public speculation and 
suspicion that he wants to remain in power after 2007.  The 
most important thing for the President was getting the 
succession right.  If he had to endure bad press and comments 
in the interim, Obasanjo was willing to do so, she asserted. 
 
5.  (C) She indicated Obasanjo was viewing several governors 
as well as a few current ministers as potential successors. 
Ezekwesili predicted Obasanjo would tarry until the last 
moment before he publicly committed to a successor.  This way 
he would keep the Babangidas and Atikus on their haunches - 
they could not make a decision until he did.  They must then 
temporize.  Also, it would keep his genuine as well as 
convenient allies in line.  Until he anointed someone, all 
factions that sought his blessings would continue to curry 
his favor by acting according to his aims.  Once he 
identified his favorite, some of the losers might become 
active dissidents, reasoned Ezekwesili. 
 
6.  (C) Comment: Ezekwesili is very close to and fond of the 
President.  Thus, she sees him as many Nigerians do not and 
she gives the most charitable explanations to his actions, 
again, a predilection many Nigerians do not share.  Yet, we 
believe she has honestly recounted her discussions with 
Obasanjo.  He probably has told her he will leave.  However, 
he has probably told advisors of a less principled mold than 
Ezekwesili that he is inclined to renew his lease on Aso 
Villa.  This may be part of a deliberate tack by Obasanjo to 
keep everyone guessing or it could be the action of a usually 
decisive man caught on the horns of one of his life's and his 
nation's greatest dilemmas.  End comment. 
 
7.  (U) This cable has been cleared by Embassy Abuja. 
BROWNE