US embassy cable - 05ADDISABABA3383

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003383 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, ET, ELEC, UNREST 
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: INFO MINISTER BEREKET SAY GOE OPEN TO 
REFORM -- AFTER PARLIAMENT IS SEATED 
 
REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 3277 
     B. ADDIS ABABA 3250 
 
Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reason 1.4 (b,d). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: GOE Minister of Information Bereket Simon 
told Charge Sept. 15 that the GOE would consider steps to 
restore confidence in Ethiopian democratic institutions, but 
only after the opposition agrees to participate in 
Parliament.  He welcomed the Ambassadors' Donors Group (ADG) 
statement and the Carter Center draft report he had seen, 
indicating that there was much to learn from such advice when 
offered "in good faith."  He questioned the opposition's 
democratic credentials, criticized its proposals, and claimed 
that there were no trustworthy moderates with whom the GOE 
could deal.  Former leaders from the DERG regime were 
steadily taking control of the opposition, he said.  Bereket 
claimed that the opposition's real strategy was not to 
negotiate for reform, but rather to provoke a skirmish in the 
streets with security forces in the hope that it could force 
the EPRDF from power.  Bereket reaffirmed the GOE's vocation 
for democratization and sustainable development, and promised 
that the opposition would have a real voice in parliament -- 
if it shows up.  End Summary 
 
2. (C) Charge made an introductory call on Minister of 
Information Bereket Simon Sept. 15, accompanied by Pol/Econ 
Counselor Kevin Sullivan.  Bereket has served as the public 
face and senior negotiator for the GOE throughout this year's 
troubled election process.  Ref A contains Bereket's comments 
on the Ethiopia-Eritrean border situation, while this message 
focused on internal politics. 
 
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ADG Statement: We Can See Your Good Intentions 
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3. (C) Bereket complimented the Charge on the "helpful" ADG 
statement issued Sept. 13 (Ref B).  The GOE had difficulties 
with some elements, which the Minister insinuated had been 
inserted by EU missions, but he concluded that "you can see 
the intent.  You want us to move forward in the democratic 
process and you are willing to help."  He contrasted the 
statement with what he called the "unprofessional" statement 
issued by the EU Observer Mission (EOM).  The Charge replied 
that she wouldn't have been satisfied if the GOE had like 
everything about the ADG statement.  Ethiopia was at a 
crossroads, and both the GOE and the opposition had a 
responsibility to advance democracy. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
We are Democrats, and Parliament Will Prove It 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
4. (C) The Charge asked whether the opposition would be 
allowed to play an effective role if parties did decide to 
take their seats in Parliament.  Bereket answered that the 
GOE was committed to building a democratic society.  He 
claimed that "no one forced us to open up prior to the 
election.  No other African country has done as much."  While 
opposition parties advocated positions unacceptable to the 
EPRDF, they had the right to express their ideas and would 
have sufficient space to do so.  If the opposition proposed 
agenda items in parliament with which the GOE did not agree, 
the ruling coalition could use the opportunity for public 
debates with their opponents.  "If an agenda item adds 
value," he said, "we'll allow the debate." 
 
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Opposition Neither Democratic Nor Moderate 
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5. (C) Bereket charged that opposition complaints about 
Parliamentary rule changes were just a smokescreen for the 
parties real intentions: to seize power by unconstitutional 
means.  "They don't have the strength to overthrow us by 
force, but they are hoping for some skirmish that they can 
take advantage of."  The Minister told the Charge that "you 
hear there are moderates among the opposition, but who are 
they?"  The CUD's Berhanu Nega had participated in the 
drafting of some of the opposition's most extreme statements. 
 Bereket claimed that he had asked Berhanu to stake out 
moderate positions in public, but the CUD leader had refused. 
 The Minister had had similar experiences with UEDF leader 
Beyene Petros.  Petros had seemed moderate, but became 
another person in his public statements.  Bereket claimed 
that current opposition parties remained too closely aligned 
with former leaders of the repressive DERG regime, and would 
have to be sidelined -- democratically, of course -- before a 
genuine, constitutional opposition could emerge.  Current 
opposition leaders called the Ethiopian Constitution 
"Stalinist", a charge Bereket rejected.  The Minister charged 
that Amhara CUD leaders like Hailu Shawal did not accept the 
reality of a modern, multi-ethnic Ethiopia.  DERG elements 
were now intervening in, and basically controlling, the CUD's 
meetings with constituents.  They were also controlling 
"moderates" like Berhanu, Bereket said. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
If Opposition Respects Constitution, Reforms Are Possible 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
6. (C) The Charge pointed out that public perceptions of what 
represented "old" and "new" in Ethiopian politics seemed 
quite different that the Minister's characterization.  A 
government that had been in power for fourteen years was 
bound to accumulate problems and political baggage.  The GOE 
appeared to face a tremendous challenge in this sense.  The 
Charge asked whether there was anything that the GOE could do 
to strengthen the position of so-called moderates in the 
opposition, while at the same time burnishing its own public 
and international image.  Even reaffirming in public some of 
the same commitments that Bereket had just made would help, 
she added.  She also referred to the Carter Center Report's 
recommendations, and noted that it would be good for the GOE 
to recapture the image of a government moving forward on 
democratization.  Pol/Econ Counselor offered the specific 
example of re-opening the public media to the opposition, and 
toning down GOE rhetoric on state radio and television. 
 
7. (C) Bereket responded that "once the opposition agrees to 
play by the rules, many things are possible."  If the GOE 
"gave them the media" before such a commitment, however, the 
Minister feared that the opposition leaders would simply 
issues public calls for violence.  The GOE would not be able 
to monitor all media to prevent such statement, he said. 
Bereket recalled being burned by CUD and UEDF leaders several 
months prior after a dialogue brokered by EU Ambassador Tim 
Clarke.  The GOE and opposition figures had labored over a 
positive, forward-looking joint statement, only to have the 
opposition depart radically from the script during the press 
conference and launch attacks on the GOE and the electoral 
process. Nevertheless Bereket appeared to take the Charge's 
suggestions on board.  He promised to come up with something 
that the GOE felt comfortable with.  "We know you want a 
stable, democratic ally," the Minister said.  "We'll move 
forward in the right direction.  The clouds will disperse." 
 
8. (C) Despite this sunny prediction, however, the Minister's 
mood turned somewhat darker when discussing the coming weeks. 
 He saw several potential flashpoints, most notably the 
release of the EOM's final report on elections (note: 
presumably postponed until sometime after Parliament is to 
meet as per reftel).  Another difficult development would be 
the consolidation of the CUD from a coalition into a unified 
party, likely under Hailu Shawel. 
 
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Comment:  Kinder, Gentler Bereket -- But No Clear Opening 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
9. (C) Bereket, seen by many as an EPRDF "heavy", took a 
warmer tone and expressed more receptiveness on democratic 
reforms than in some previous meetings.  His friendlier 
demeanor appeared to reflect the GOE's basic comfort with the 
U.S. role in the Ambassadors' Donors Group, as well as the 
Carter Center report.  Nonetheless, Bereket offered no 
concrete promises on GOE steps to defuse political tensions 
and continued to reject the legitimacy of Ethiopia's leading 
opposition parties. 
HUDDLESTON