US embassy cable - 05ADDISABABA3382

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003382 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, ET, ELEC, UNREST 
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: CUD COUNCIL DISTANCES ITSELF FROM HAILU 
SHAWEL'S COMMENTS 
 
 
Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reasons 1.4 b and d 
 
1. (SBU)  Summary. On September 21, the CUD, Ethiopia's 
largest opposition coalition, issued a statement that 
distances the CUD Council from provocative comments made by 
Coalition Chairman Hailu Shawel in Washington.  The CUD 
statement notes that Shawel's comments, which included a 
commitment to boycott Parliament and a call for the GOE's 
resignation, do not reflect the official position of the 
coalition.  The CUD communique further states that the CUD 
will make the decision on whether to join parliament in 
conjunction with addressing broader political concerns. 
Hailu Shawel's declarations in the U.S. have been portrayed 
by the state-owned media as reflecting CUD's position, 
however, and have added to a sense of confusion and division 
within the opposition. At the same time, demonstrations 
called by the opposition for October 2 in Addis Ababa, along 
with allegations of increased harassment of opposition 
members by the government, have heightened tension and 
increased political polarization.  End Summary. 
 
Chairman Hailu: We Will Boycott and Bring This Government Down 
--------------------------------------------- ----------------- 
 
2. (SBU) In separate appearances at a press conference at 
Washington's National Press Club, a town hall meeting with 
the Diaspora, and an interview with VOA, CUD Chairman Hailu 
Shawel reportedly stated that Ethiopia's elections had been 
fraudulent.  He indicated that his party (the All Ethiopian 
Unity Party, the largest component of the CUD coalition) 
would not join parliament, which is scheduled to convene in 
early October.  Hailu also stated that the opposition's 
constituents had clearly told their leadership that they 
should not accept the results of the elections.  He was also 
critical of Western governments (including the US and the UK) 
that have called on the opposition to take its seats in 
parliament.  In addition, Hailu again put forward the idea of 
a transitional government, a concept which the ruling party 
has repeatedly rejected.  In response to a question about 
what the USG should do, he said that the US should inform the 
government that they had lost the election and must 
relinquish power.  Hailu answered another question by saying, 
"No guns will be used.  Not a single bullet will be shot. 
But we will bring this government down." 
 
CUD In Addis: Hailu Doesn't Speak For Us 
---------------------------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) The state-owned media reported Hailu's statements as 
the official position of the CUD concerning Parliament. In 
response, the CUD Council issued a press release on September 
21. The press release clearly notes that the statement given 
by Hailu Shawel is his personal opinion and not that of the 
CUD Council.  It states that that the CUD Council has not yet 
to take a position on whether to join the Parliament. 
However, it stresses that the real issue is not parliamentary 
participation, but rather "whether a democratic system could 
prevail in our country."  The CUD statement argues that 
preventing the country from being "dragged into political 
chaos" and pushing the ruling party to accept opposition's 
recommendations on democratic reforms are the most important 
political questions. The release states that these issues 
must be addressed in conjunction with the opposition's 
decision on whether to join parliament.  The press release 
indicates that the CUD will make its decision "after 
assessing the country's political problems, the democratic 
processes and subsequent steps in close collaboration with 
allied opposition parties."  During a separate press 
conference on September 21, CUD and UEDF leaders criticized 
the government for what they called illegal and undemocratic 
activities, including harassment and destruction of property 
of opposition leaders and members. 
 
Opposition Stumbles Forward, Hoping for a Miracle 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
4. (C) Comment: It has become common for opposition leaders 
to take more radical positions while consulting with the 
Ethiopian Diaspora in the U.S. than they do when they are in 
Addis Ababa.  Shawal's comments may have been designed to 
appeal to financial backers in the U.S. -- or to younger, 
more radical CUD members in Ethiopia who are eager to 
confront the EPRDF head on.  His comments would almost 
certainly get him arrested in Addis Ababa, and have roiled 
opposition ranks just as the CUD is set to meet this weekend 
to form a new, "unified" party from current coalition 
members.  Local sources tell post that other opposition 
leaders remain divided on whether to take their parliamentary 
seats.  A large number of MPs-elect have picked up their 
credentials, and the CUD has taken a number of steps to 
prepare for assuming authority over Ethiopia's capital, but 
opposition leaders Berhanu Nega and Marera Gudina continue to 
say that they will boycott Parliament unless the GOE improves 
the democratic climate.  Plans for a large protest on October 
2 continue apace. 
HUDDLESTON