US embassy cable - 05WARSAW3456

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 003456 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PL, Polish Elections 
SUBJECT: LIKELY COALITION PARTNERS NECK-AND-NECK ON EVE OF 
POLISH ELECTIONS 
 
REF: WARSAW 3427 AND PREVIOUS 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: National opinion surveys on the last day of 
the Polish parliamentary election campaign show the centrist 
Civic Platform (PO) and center-right Law and Justice (PiS) 
running roughly even (albeit with a slight edge to PO), 
highlighting the fierce contest for first place between the 
two parties that will almost certainly form the next 
government. The final week of the campaign has been marked by 
heated exchanges and recriminations among PO and PiS leaders, 
with PiS accusing PO of radical economic liberalism and PO 
branding PiS as socialistic and pandering to the extreme 
right.  Following each such exchange, however, both sides 
have circled back to reaffirm their commitment to serve 
together in a coalition government.  PO presidential 
candidate Donald Tusk's support remains just short of the 
fifty-percent threshold he needs to cross to secure a 
first-round victory October 8.  He and PiS rival Lech 
Kaczynski's televised debate was postponed until September 
26, owing to other parties' challenges and State Electoral 
Commission concerns. End summary. 
 
2. (U) Opinion surveys published on the last day of the 
campaign were uniform in ranking PO and PiS nearly evenly 
matched, with a small margin for PO in every poll but one 
(which showed the two parties tied).  These polls indicated 
that PO had the support of between 29 and 34 percent, and PiS 
a few points below PO's level.  The populist Self-Defense 
came in third at between 10 and 12 percent, while figures for 
the remaining parties varied among the polls: the right-wing 
LPR had between 5 and 11 percent, the governing SLD between 4 
(below the threshold for parliamentary representation) and 8 
percent, and the Peasants' Party (PSL) between 4 and 7 
percent.  Meanwhile, PO presidential candidate Tusk's numbers 
remain in the mid-to-high 40 percent range, with Lech 
Kaczynski stalled at around 30 percent.  Tusk has also 
maintained a decisive, 60-40 lead over Kaczynski in a 
hypothetical head-to-head, second-round matchup with his PiS 
rival. 
 
3. (SBU) As anticipated, the campaign rhetoric has sharpened 
in the final week of the campaign.  PiS candidates continue 
to attack their PO rivals for liberal, "experimental" 
policies (recalling the deeply unpopular shock therapy of the 
early 1990's) that will favor the wealthiest citizens; PO's 
flat tax proposals are a favorite target.  Alternatively, PiS 
accuses PO of not having any program at all.  PO has 
responded with equal furor, labeling the PiS program as 
socialist (PO leader and PM candidate Jan Rokita declared 
that PiS stands for "law and socialism," rather than "law and 
justice") and complaining about PiS's open courtship of the 
extreme right-wing Catholic vote.  A senior PiS campaign 
official appeared this week on the Catholic television 
channel "Trwam" (an affiliate of the infamous "Radio Maryja," 
whose director recently vowed to "sink" PO); afterwards, Tusk 
warned against such a "dangerous political strategy" and both 
he and Rokita called into question whether PiS really wants a 
coalition with PO. 
 
4. (SBU) After such exchanges, however, leaders of both PO 
and PiS continue to reaffirm the compelling logic of their 
likely coalition.  PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski insisted 
that he is "100 percent sure" that his party will enter into 
coalition with PO, even as he continued to highlight 
fundamental differences between the two parties.  PiS is not 
out to "sink" PO, he declared, seeking to distance his party 
(somewhat) from "Radio Maryja" (N.B., if PiS does manage a 
stronger-than-expected showing this weekend, the support of 
the ultra-conservative Catholic organization could well be a 
significant factor).  Tusk publicly lamented the PiS attacks, 
but assured that it is "impossible" to think that PO and PiS 
will not form a coalition. 
 
5. (SBU) Emboff visits to Poznan, Olsztyn, Augustow and 
Bialystok this week reinforced the message that we have heard 
elsewhere throughout Poland, that PO and PiS are expected to 
finish first and second in nearly every region.  In Poznan, a 
business center in one of Poland's wealthiest regions, PO is 
expected to win half of the seats for the Sejm, with PiS 
coming in a close second.  PiS Sejm deputy Aleksander 
Szczyglo, who represents the poorest region in Poland, in 
northeastern Mazuria, hoped for PiS to edge out PO as the 
top-vote getter, a real switch for an area that traditionally 
supported the Polish Peasants Party and SLD. 
 
6. (SBU) Comment: With a tightening race for first place, an 
upsurge in partisan attacks between PO and PiS was to be 
expected.  It is encouraging, moreover, that neither side has 
allowed the fighting to get out of hand; both PO and PiS 
appear -- for now, at least -- focused on the need to work 
together after the elections.  Already speculation here has 
begun to shift to the relationships within a PO-PiS coalition 
(determined in large part, of course, by the results of 
Sunday's vote).  Divisions between the party leaders are 
often as much personal as they are policy-based; Rokita in 
particular is viewed as a difficult partner for PiS (one 
interlocutor remarked that Rokita is so sure of himself that 
"he'd tell the British queen which hat to wear to Ascot") and 
the Kaczynski twins are notoriously insular (a view shared by 
many PiS "insiders" as well). Most here expect life within 
the coalition to be rough. 
Ashe