US embassy cable - 05THEHAGUE2585

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 002585 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2015 
TAGS: MARR, PREL, NL, MOPS 
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS: ASD FLORY'S VISIT TO THE HAGUE 
 
REF: A. THE HAGUE 2434 
     B. THE HAGUE 2565 
     C. THE HAGUE 2436 
     D. THE HAGUE 2377 
 
Classified By: Charge D'Affaires Chat Blakeman; 
reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1. (C) Your trip to the Netherlands comes at a time when 
Prime Minister Jean-Pieter Balkenende's coalition government 
faces the lowest poll figures in Dutch history.  Much of the 
public and parliamentary criticism focuses on the 
government's ambitious economic reform programs, but Dutch 
military deployments overseas (including in ISAF III and 
NTM-I) and the government's commitment to the Joint Strike 
Fighter program are also controversial.  The national budget 
released on September 20 provides moderately increased funds 
for the Defense Ministry, reversing a decade-long decline. 
Under Defense Minister Henk Kamp, the Dutch MOD has recently 
reorganized to streamline decision-making and to increase the 
deployability of Dutch forces.  Your Defense and Ministry of 
Foreign Affairs (MFA) interlocutors are likely to seek your 
views on proposals for NATO transformation.  Should your 
schedule allow a visit to the HMS Van Amstel, you will want 
to thank Defense Minister Kamp and the frigate's crew for 
their hard work and timely assistance in support of Hurricane 
Katrina relief efforts. 
 
Unpopular Balkenende Government 
------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) The Balkenende government has fallen on tough times. 
A September 16 poll indicated that if national elections were 
held today, Balkenende's coalition would poll only 23.9 
percent, down from 28.6 percent in 2003.  At the same time, 
the popularity of the opposition party Labor (PvdA) is 
increasing, drawing 31.2 percent of today's voters (up from 
27.3 percent in 2003).  With the national elections scheduled 
for May 2007, many assume a new government will come to power 
headed by a more Euro-centric Labor party.  Labor was highly 
critical of Dutch participation in Iraq, and has raised 
difficult questions in parliament regarding the deployment of 
special forces in support of the Afghan elections.  They are 
generally supportive of Dutch participation in ISAF.  Labor 
also actively opposed the Dutch government's involvement in 
developing the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF), although it does 
not necessarily oppose the purchase of the finished aircraft. 
 Balkenende's government has pinned its hopes on turning 
around the struggling Dutch economy through an ambitious -- 
and controversial -- economic reform program, but many 
observers consider this a long shot.  All parties are now 
gearing up for municipal elections scheduled for March 2006, 
which are widely viewed as a preview of the 2007 national 
elections. 
 
2006 Defense Budget Plans 
------------------------- 
 
3. (C) The Ministry of Defense came out fairly strong in the 
September 20 presentation of the 2006 defense budget plans. 
Since 1994, the MOD has given up approximately 1.2 billion 
Euros in cuts.  This year's budget sees a slight raise from 
2005 (7.67 to 7.78 billion Euros) and includes funds to 
procure new equipment.  This follows a massive ministry 
reorganization involving service command consolidation and 
staff cuts (ref A).  During a September 20 press conference, 
Defense Minister Kamp emphasized the need to continue to 
adapt to a changing security situation or risk becoming 
vulnerable.  MOD State Secretary Cees van der Knaap announced 
plans to buy two C-130s (54 million Euros) and five new 
Chinook helicopters adapted for special forces missions from 
the USG.  The Dutch also intend to develop their armed forces 
into a "full-fledged national security organization," 
including making 3,000 troops permanently available for civil 
authorities in response to crisis situations.  The MOD also 
will develop counter-terrorism plans to protect airspace and 
harbors. 
 
ISAF Stage III 
-------------- 
 
4. (C) As reported ref B, the Dutch government is expected to 
make a positive decision by the end of October to deploy 
1,000 - 1,2000 troops to Uruzghan province in Afghanistan in 
support of ISAF Stage III.  MOD contacts hope parliamentary 
approval of the decision will follow shortly thereafter. 
Prior fulfillment of certain "pre-conditions" will help 
convince parliament, especially given concerns recently 
raised by the Labor Party.  Such pre-conditions include 
securing U.S. intelligence and logistics support, 
establishing a PRT partnership with Australia, and 
cost-sharing to renovate Kandahar airport.  The Dutch have 
suggested that a pitch by the USG might help convince 
Australia to team with the Netherlands in Uruzghan, and may 
raise this and possible U.S. intelligence and logistics 
support to the Dutch PRT during your meetings. 
 
NATO Transformation 
------------------- 
 
5. (C) As reported ref C, Defense Minister Kamp took 
seriously NATO SYG de Hoop Scheffer's request to think 
outside the box on NATO transformation issues.  During the 
recent informal NATO defense ministerial in Berlin, Kamp 
presented an 11-point paper that emphasized an expanded role 
for the NATO Response Force (NRF), a greater NATO role in 
maritime security, a major policy change in favor of European 
missile defense, and increased NATO coordination with the EU, 
UN, and the African Union.  Foreign Minister Bot has 
expressed similar views in recent public speeches on the need 
to transform NATO into a more effective political 
decision-making entity.  Dutch interlocutors have been 
generally supportive of Washington's "two summit" approach 
focusing a first mini-summit in 2006 on transformation and a 
second in 2008 on enlargement.  The Dutch have gently pushed 
for a greater US role in the NRF, and may raise this during 
your meetings. 
 
Force Protection for NTM-I 
-------------------------- 
 
6. (C) As reported reftel ref D, the Dutch are willing to 
contribute up to 100 persons to participate in the NATO 
Training Mission in Iraq provided other Allies and partners 
also are willing to increase their participation.  To date, 
the Dutch have offered 25 persons for NTM-I; only 15 persons 
are currently deployed in Iraq.  MFA and MOD contacts have 
indicated that the possibility of Dutch contributions to 
force protection for NTM-I is a non-starter, especially given 
the expected contentious debate in parliament over Dutch 
participation in ISAF Stage III. 
 
JSF 
--- 
 
7. (C) JSF is one of the most important issues we face in the 
Netherlands; your Dutch interlocutors may raise it during 
your meetings.  The Dutch have agreed to contribute $800 
million to participate in the system development and 
demonstration phase, and now face a decision next year to 
purchase the fighter.  The current government and the Air 
Force wholeheartedly support the purchase, but Labor is 
dragging its heels.  Questions involving program delays and 
the Quadrennial Defense Review have complicated the issue. 
The CEO of Lockheed-Martin will visit the Netherlands the 
first week of October, officially "to strengthen the 
trans-Atlantic relationship" but also to build the case in 
favor of the purchase. 
 
HMS Van Amstel 
-------------- 
 
8. (C) The HMS van Amstel is planning to return to the 
Netherlands the day of your visit.  The Van Amstel has been 
at sea for six months on counter-narcotics operations in the 
Caribbean, and was on its way back the Netherlands when 
Hurricane Katrina struck.  The Van Amstel changed course, 
heading toward the hurricane-affected area, and was key in 
providing timely assistance to the Biloxi area.  The Van 
Amstel had considerable press coverage here in the 
Netherlands; Charge hosted a press conference on Dutch 
hurricane assistance in which he described the personnel 
aboard the Van Amstel as heroes.  Your participation in the 
small ceremony greeting the return of the Van Amstel's crew 
will go a long way in showing our appreciation to the Dutch 
for their hard work and timely assistance.  It also presents 
an opportunity to meet Defense Minister Kamp. 
 
Other Meetings 
-------------- 
 
9. (U) We also have scheduled meetings with Pieter de Gooijer 
(Deputy Director-General for Political Affairs, MFA), and Lo 
Casteleijn (Director, General Policy Affairs, MOD).  We are 
awaiting word from Rob Swartbol's office (Advisor to the 
Prime Minister) regarding his availability. 
 
Van Der Knaap Trip to Washington 
-------------------------------- 
 
10. (C) MOD State Secretary Van Der Knaap plans to travel to 
Washington next month.  Lo Casteleijn has described van der 
Knaap as politically savvy, and influential on the JSF 
decision.  You should ask Casteleijn for his views on how to 
engage with Van Der Knaap during his trip to Washington. 
 
BLAKEMAN