US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD3942

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 003942 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, EAID, KDEM, IZ, Sunni Arab, Elections 
SUBJECT: REFERENDUM PREPARATIONS ON TRACK, IECI TO VISIT 
DISGRUNTLED SUNNI ARAB CITIES 
 
REF: A. A) BAGHDAD 2644 
     B. B) BAGHDAD 3088 
     C. C) BAGHDAD 3869 
     D. D) LAPENN/NEA-I EMAIL 9/16/05 
     E. E) BAGHDAD 3648 
 
Classified By: Robert Ford reasons 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY.  Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq 
(IECI) chairman Izadin Shufig and commissioner Safwat Sidqi 
told PolOff on September 20 that preparations for the 
October 15 referendum are on track.   With respect to the 
registration period for political entities, IECI is likely 
to extend the current registration period deadline beyond 
September 30 to allow parties more time to coalesce and 
register as coalition entities.  On September 22, EU 
representative Anna Gallo confirmed to PolOff that the EU 
plans initially to add Euro 50 million (approximately USD 
61 million) to the UN funding for the election commission 
for a logistical contract once IECI produces a detailed 
budget (expected next week.  To build trust between deeply 
suspicious Sunni Arab leaders and the IECI, and to pre-empt 
Sunni cries of unfair treatment by IECI, Embassy is 
organizing, in cooperation with MNF-I, REOs and SETs, a 
five city IECI elections outreach program to Sunni areas: 
Fallujah (9/26), Kirkuk (9/29), Mosul (10/3), Tikrit (10/6) 
and Baqubah (10/10).  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------- 
REFERENDUM ON TRACK 
------------------- 
 
2. (C) IECI commissioner chairman Izadin Shufig and 
commissioner Safwat Sidqi told PolOff on September 20 that 
preparations for the October 15 referendum are on track. 
While underscoring the uncertainty of the security 
situation in some areas, several international electoral 
experts agreed with the commissioners' assessment that 
referendum preparations are well underway. 
 
------------------ 
ELECTORAL TIMELINE 
------------------ 
 
3. (C) IECI still has not published an official December 
2005 electoral timeline, but several IECI international 
electoral experts estimate the following schedule: 
 
Political Entity Registration 
----------------------------- 
 
1  Sep    Start period for registration of political 
          entities 
 
25 Sep    End registrations for political entities at 
          governorate offices 
 
30 Sep    End registrations for political entities at 
          Baghdad IECI HQ 
 
(Note: IECI is likely to extend the current period deadline 
for political entities to register beyond September 30 to 
allow parties more time to coalesce and register as 
coalition entities for the December 2005 election. End 
note.) 
 
October 15 Referendum 
--------------------- 
 
3rd week Sep   Start delivery of referendum ballots and 
               material to governorate hub warehouses 
 
13 Oct         Polling centers pickup material from hubs 
 
15 Oct         REFERENDUM DAY 
 
 
3rd week Oct   Challenges and complaints period 
               Certification of results 
 
 
December 15 National Election 
----------------------------- 
 
4th week Sep   Start candidate list submission period 
 
3rd week Oct   End candidate list submission period 
               at IECI governorate offices 
 
4th week Oct   End candidate list submission period 
               at Baghdad IECI HQ 
 
2nd week Nov   Start printing election ballot paper 
 
3rd week Nov   Start delivery of election ballots and 
               material to governorate hub warehouses 
 
13 Dec         Polling centers pickup material from hubs 
 
15 Dec         ELECTION DAY 
 
3rd week Dec   Challenges and complaints period 
               Certification of results 
 
(Note: Referendum law (Article 1) determines the polling 
day for the referendum by stating, "The referendum process 
on the project of constitution starts on Saturday Oct 15, 
2005..." (reftel B).  With respect to the campaign period 
for elections, Article 20 of the elections law states, "any 
candidate may conduct the campaign on the date of the 
beginning of his nomination and continue to the day 
immediately preceding the date designated for holding the 
election."  End Note.) 
 
---------------------- 
ELECTORAL PREPARATIONS 
---------------------- 
 
4. (C) Parallel preparations for the October referendum and 
December election are on-going. 
 
- Polling Center Locations.  Polling sites have been 
identified in all governorates except Al-Anbar. 
 
- Staff Training.  IECI has started referendum training 
workshops for governorate and select district-level 
trainers in Baghdad.  By October 2, IECI expects to have 
775 qualified trainers who will train polling center 
election workers nationwide. 
 
- Logistics.  A logistics contract valued at USD 60 million 
was signed this week UN/OPS in Amman for the secure 
delivery and storage of electoral materials (for both the 
referendum and election) at governorate hub warehouses. 
 
- IECI Budget.  IECI has begun to prepare a detailed budget 
with the assistance of a newly arrived international 
financial expert. (Comment.  A detailed budget was 
requested months ago by the Ministry of Finance as well as 
donor nations eager to contribute to the UN electoral 
cluster funding mechanism.  On September 17, Charge 
emphasized to visiting UN Electoral Assistance Division 
(EAD) chief Carina Pirelli the urgent need for a detailed 
IECI budget. (reftel C) End Comment.)  IECI appears to have 
sufficient funding to hold the referendum; currently, IECI 
has an account balance of USD 66 million.  The USD 60 
million logistics contract just awarded by UN/OPS Amman 
will be funded separately using the UN electoral cluster 
funding mechanism.  Although the UN cluster currently has a 
balance of only USD 26 million (reftel A), UN/OPS has 
awarded the USD 60 million logistics contract with the 
understanding that the EU would transfer needed money to 
fill the funding gap (reftel C). 
 
- Budget Continued.  On September 22, EU representative 
Anna Gallo confirmed to Poloff that the EU plans initially 
to add Euro 50 million (approximately USD 61 million) to 
the UN electoral cluster.  She said that the absence of a 
detailed IECI budget does not help the EU project to 
replenish the cluster speedily, and speculated that once 
the budget is ready, the transfer will require several 
weeks to take place. 
 
- International Staffing.  The UN has decided to extend EAD 
chief Pirelli's stay to Baghdad until October 15.  (NOTE: 
Assuming the permanent international IECI commissioner is 
not in place by then, and Pirelli departs in October, a 
senior-level UN replacement will be needed on the ground 
through December 15 elections.)  Jeff Fisher has been named 
the new IFES Baghdad chief of party for elections, and is 
expected to arrive Baghdad the first week of October.  UN 
electoral team chief David Avery said he expected five more 
UN elections experts to arrive Baghdad by next week. 
 
- Regulations.  IECI has posted seven new IECI regulations 
related to the referendum on its website, www.ieciraq.org. 
Based on the final version of the election law, IECI has 
drafted the regulation on submission of political entity 
lists and is waiting for formal Board approval. 
 
--------------------------------- 
ELECTORAL OUTREACH TO SUNNI AREAS 
--------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) To build trust between deeply suspicious Sunni 
leaders and the IECI, and to pre-empt Sunni cries of unfair 
treatment by the IECI, Embassy is organizing, in 
cooperation with MNF-I, REOS and SETS, a five-city IECI 
elections outreach program to Sunni areas modeled on a 
similar trip to Ramadi on August 30 (reftel E).  The 
intended dates and locations are: 
9/26   Fallujah 
9/29   Kirkuk 
10/3   Mosul 
10/6   Tikrit 
10/10  Baqubah 
 
The delegation, comprised of an IECI commissioner, IECI 
chief electoral officer, UN/IFES international electoral 
expert, USAID officer, and PolOffs, will meet with local 
Sunni leaders.  IECI commissioners welcomed the new Embassy 
initiative and agreed with PolOff that IECI Sunni outreach 
is essential to the credibility of the electoral process. 
 
 
Khalilzad