US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI7432

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 007432 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: UNFOUNDED "THIRD FRONT" RUMORS HINT AT CONGRESS 
ANXIETY 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 7230 
 
     B. NEW DELHI 7345 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Persistent rumors in Indian political 
circles that the Left Front (LF) is conspiring with the 
Samajwadi Party (SP) of Mulayam Singh Yadav to construct a 
"third front" capable of unseating the present United 
Progressive Alliance (UPA) government are unfounded.  The LF 
benefits from the political status quo, which has provided it 
unprecedented influence over the GOI.  It remains focused on 
upcoming elections in Bihar, West Bengal and Kerala, where it 
could do well and increase its influence still further.  The 
SP has little in common with the LF and the two would have 
trouble working together.  Although the blatant opportunism 
of Indian politicians, coupled with the allure of power could 
still send the country in a different direction, India has 
been heading for a two coalition political system for some 
time.  Still, Congress party anxiety about the threat of a 
"third front," illustrates how fragile the UPA coalition 
remains, despite Manmohan Singh's growing stature and 
confidence.  End Summary. 
 
The Rumor Synopsized 
-------------------- 
 
2.  (C) An often-repeated rumor circulating among the 
political chatterati is that the Left Front (LF) and Mulayam 
Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party (SP) are conspiring to 
construct a third front that would bring down the current 
United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government and replace it. 
Once together, these two groups would enlist additional 
support from disgruntled regional parties currently part of 
the UPA.  The LF would then withdraw its support, bringing 
down the UPA.  The third front would then approach the 
President with a request to form a new government. 
 
Building on a few Facts 
----------------------- 
 
3.  (C)  Like most Indian rumors, this one has a slim basis 
in fact.  Vajpayee's August 30th call for mid-term elections 
increased speculation that perhaps the BJP was negotiating to 
join with the LF and SP to bring down the government.  Others 
speculated that Vajpayee had done the math and determined 
that an LF and SP move to form a third front government was 
doomed to failure, as they would not be able to assemble the 
necessary number of votes, and that this would result in a 
mid-term election.  Vajpayee never repeated his remarks and 
the speculation they fueled has died down. 
 
4.  (C) The rumors are also based on the friendly ties 
between the LF and SP.  These date back to an earlier era 
when the Samajwadi (socialist) Party was a genuine left 
party.  It has since degenerated into a mercenary, 
unprincipled group characterized primarily by corruption, 
political violence and personal aggrandizement.  This has not 
prevented more nostalgic members of the LF from meeting 
frequently with Mulayam Singh, Amar Singh and others from the 
SP leadership.  These meetings get wide press play and feed 
the rumor mill. 
 
A Third Front is a Nonstarter 
----------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) While the threat of a "Third Front" has introduced 
more uncertainty into the political mix, the LF still enjoys 
significant advantages within the UPA.  Supporting the UPA 
from outside, it has gained considerable influence over 
India's political and economic policies.  Not part of the 
government, it is free to criticize UPA policies, lobby for 
its own agenda, and not take the blame when things go wrong. 
 
6.  (C) The LF would be cautious about abandoning this strong 
position to venture out into uncharted territory with 
unreliable regional parties (and maybe even the right-wing 
BJP) as its allies.  The LF prides itself on a strong 
ideological stance and relative incorruptibility.  It 
presents itself as the honest alternative to the politics of 
other parties.  The SP, represents no ideology except 
nihilistic opportunism and all pervasive corruptibility.  The 
two groups alone would make very strange bedfellows.  Add the 
BJP to the mix, and a chimera develops.  The only glue to 
bind them would be naked opportunism. 
 
Elections Take Top Priority 
--------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) In elections over the next year, the LF is certain to 
retain power in West Bengal, and hopeful it will return to 
power in Kerala and play a significant role in formation of 
the next government in Bihar.  The Communists could gain in 
strength after these state elections and play an even more 
significant role in influencing the UPA.  Until the electoral 
scenario is played out, the LF is not likely to end support 
for the UPA or give serious consideration to third front 
politics. 
 
Congress the Spoiler? 
--------------------- 
 
8.  (C) To complicate the situation even further, the 
Congress may view the political disarray of its BJP rivals as 
an opening to solidify its control in parliament and call for 
mid-term elections.  Currently, Congress holds only 146 
parliamentary seats and is dependent on support from the LF 
and regional parties to retain a majority.  Seeing an opening 
provided by the ongoing and never-ending divisions which have 
weakened the BJP (reftels), Congress may itself call mid-term 
elections, after assessing the upcoming state polls. 
 
9.  (C) Party strategists could determine that if BJP 
desertions continue, Congress could gain sufficient strength 
to form a government without LF support.  The Prime 
Minister's advisers tell us he is deeply frustrated by the 
limits to his agenda that this dependency imposes. 
Congress always plays to win and is not comfortable ruling in 
a coalition were it must answer to "lesser" parties. 
However, this strategy is very risky in light of the Indian 
voter's typical anti-incumbency sentiment.  Most observers 
predicted an easy victory for the BJP in the May 2004 
elections and its resulting defeat by Congress demonstrates 
the whimsical nature of Indian politics, and provides an 
object lesson as to why early polls are a bad idea. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
10.  (C) India has been heading in fits and starts towards a 
center-left/center-right political system for some time. 
Recent stumbling by the BJP and an unexpected resurgence by 
the LF (septel) have fed speculation that India could return 
to a political system with at least three political power 
centers.  Opportunists like Mulayam Singh Yadav know that 
once a two-coalition political system takes root, they could 
only play a supporting role in New Delhi.  Such politicians 
take comfort in third front rumors and encourage them, 
because they hold out the possibility that a regional leader 
could become Prime Minister.  Although the blatant 
opportunism of such politicians, coupled with the allure of 
power, could still send the country in a different direction, 
in our view, it would be extremely difficult to overcome the 
current momentum toward a two coalition system.  National 
parties like the BJP and Congress are most likely to form the 
core of any future governments.  Despite this, Congress 
insiders continue to take these rumors seriously, 
illustrating the continued vulnerability of the UPA 
government to a sudden shove that could unbalance the 
country's Parliamentary arithmetic. 
 
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