US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK6093

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 006093 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/MLS, S/CT, INR 
PACOM FOR FPA (HUSO) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PTER, KPAO, TH, Southern Thailand 
SUBJECT: SOUTHERN VIOLENCE: REPERCUSSIONS OF SEPTEMBER 21 
MURDERS 
 
REF: BANGKOK 6051 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton. Reason 1.4 
(b, d) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  The September 21 murders of two Marines who 
were being held hostage at a Muslim village in Narathiwat 
province continue to dominate the headlines.  The Thaksin 
administration has been restrained in its initial response but 
has vowed to take decisive measure against the culprits.  The 
government's tough rhetoric reflects widespread public outrage 
over the killings.  The Royal Family has treated the two 
soldiers as "heroes," according them honors normally reserved 
for senior members of Thai society.  The murders -- reminiscent 
of past mob violence in the South -- happened during a highly 
symbolic period and are another significant milestone in the far 
South. END SUMMARY 
 
GOVERNMENT VOWS TOUGH RESPONSE 
------------------------------ 
 
2.  (SBU)  The September 21 brutal murders of two Thai Marines, 
who were being held hostage in a rural village in Narathiwat 
province (reftel A), continue to reverberate throughout 
Thailand.  News of the killing has dominated print and 
television coverage.  Prime Minister Thaksin, using strong 
language, has vowed repeatedly to hunt down those responsible, 
saying the Marines "will not die in vain."  The government's 
response, as of yet, has been restrained.  The military has 
surrounded the village where the killings took place and has 
arrested four suspects.  The MFA issued a statement that 
portrays the incident as another attempt by separatist militants 
to "internationalize the situation" in the far South. 
 
WHAT HAPPENED AT THE VILLAGE? 
----------------------------- 
 
3.  (SBU)  The RTG is portraying the incident as being 
deliberately planned.  Military leaders described a small core 
group of agitators supported by a larger group of some 50 male 
supporters who seized the pair.  These groups were then 
protected by the several hundred villagers -- mostly women and 
children -- who blocked the access of security forces into the 
village. 
 
4.  (C)  Mark Tamthai, a civilian advisor to the NSC and member 
of the National Reconciliation Commission (NRC) was at the 
village during the standoff.  Tamthai told us that the 
military's account of a loosely organized crowd was correct but 
opined that the incident "could not have happened 
spontaneously."  Dr. Panitan Wattanayagom, an expert on southern 
Thailand from Chulalonghorn University, said that high ranking 
members of the military told him that the incident was 
deliberate, noting that the gas tank in the two soldiers' car 
had been tampered with so that they could not escape from the 
village. 
 
5.  (C)  Tamthai described a chaotic scene at the village and 
confused government response -- with no clear leadership on the 
ground -- reminiscent of the October 25, 2004 Tak Bai incident. 
Narathiwat Governor Pracha Taerat, on the scene initially, was 
called away due to the arrival in Narathiwat of Crown Princess 
Sirinthorn.  Tamthai reported that Major General Phicet 
Wisaijorn, Deputy 4th Army area commander (and former military 
academy classmate of PM Thaksin) was on the scene, but did not 
appear to be in charge of the situation. 
 
WIDESPREAD OUTRAGE OVER THE MURDERS 
----------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C)  The popular reaction in Thailand over the brutal 
killings should not be understated.  In Bangkok, "man on the 
street" conversations are filled with angry rhetoric and calls 
for retaliation against "ungrateful Muslims."  On popular Thai 
language websites, chat postings have been filled with strong 
language calling for repressive measures, or violence, against 
Muslims.  Tamthai speculated that widespread anger among the 
larger Thai populace would make it very hard for the government 
to not respond forcefully to the incident. 
 
7.  (C)  The murders are also an emotional issue for Muslims in 
the South.  Tamthai said Muslims see the widespread media 
coverage and outcry over the murders as another example of the 
general population's bias against them.  Tamthai described the 
attitude as "they never care when a Muslim is killed, but when a 
Buddhist is killed there is a huge amount of attention paid." 
Tamthai speculated that incident would be "very divisive" 
between the communities. 
 
TEST FOR THE NRC 
---------------- 
 
8.  (C)  During and after the incident the NRC, and its Chairman 
Anand Panyarachun, have been surprisingly silent.  Dr. Panitan 
told poloffs that any hope for a non-violent response will 
depend on Anand, but noted that significantly Anand had not come 
forward publicly to urge restraint.  Panitan opined that the 
NRC's credibility will be negatively affected unless Anand can 
do something to calm the situation down.  Mark Tamthai, himself 
a prominent NRC member, told poloffs he is worried that the 
situation is a serious set back for reconciliation efforts, and 
said he was "disheartened" by the series of events. 
 
ROYAL ATTENTION TO THE MURDERS SENDS STRONG PUBLIC SIGNAL 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
9.  (C)  On September 22, Princess Sirinthorn, the most highly 
revered member of the royal family besides the King, personally 
presided for a royal water ceremony over the remains of the two 
murdered soldiers at a Buddhist temple in Narathiwat.  The 
ceremony was broadcast live nationwide on all major channels. 
Individual wreaths from the King, Queen, Crown Prince and other 
members of the royal family were also presented at the temple. 
The Crown Princess also announced that she would pay for a house 
and scholarships for family members of the slain Marines. 
 
CONCERN ABOUT "RETALIATION" 
--------------------------- 
 
10.  (C)  PM Thaksin has vowed to treat the culprits "with an 
iron fist in a velvet glove," leading to widespread speculation 
among local observers that security forces will be given even 
wider latitude to target suspected militants.  Gothom Arya, a 
prominent human rights leader and also an NRC member, told 
poloffs that he is very concerned that this incident would lead 
to the military being given the "shoot to kill" order on Muslims 
suspected of involvement in the insurgency.  Dr. Panitan also 
speculated that the incident would lead to retribution from 
security forces.  Panitan, who often consults with the Thai 
military and Royal Family on the South, said that he had spoken 
with senior military leaders and had been told that the Marines 
"will have their revenge."  Panitan said that he had urged that 
the Marines be pulled out of the region and replaced with units 
not emotionally involved in the latest incident. 
 
11.  (C)  This latest incident could reinforce the already 
serious estrangement between the ethically Malay Muslim 
population of the far South and the central government.  Dr. 
Panitan is concerned that the government's response and overall 
"simplistic" strategy towards the South are having the affect of 
driving a disparate Muslim community together.  Panitan also 
noted that the government tended to collectively blame and 
punish southern Muslims, reinforcing the "us versus them" 
mentality in the South. 
 
POOR TIMING FOR LATEST INCIDENT 
------------------------------- 
 
12.  (C)  The timing of the hostage taking/murders could not 
have been worse.  We are approaching Ramadan, and the October 25 
anniversary of the Tak Bai tragedy.  The killings themselves 
took place during the period when the Queen is supposed to begin 
her annual stay in Narathiwat. (NOTE: The Queen was originally 
scheduled to arrive to arrive in Narathiwat on September 12, but 
postponed her visit because of severe back problems which were 
clearly evident in a recent public ceremony.  Embassy sources 
say she will travel to Narathiwat on September 26. END NOTE) 
 
A PATTERN OF CROWD VIOLENCE? 
---------------------------- 
 
13.  (C)  This incident appears to follow earlier instances of 
apparent manipulated crowd violence seen in the South.  In 
April, 2003 -- also in Narathiwat's Ra Nage district -- two 
Border Patrol officers were surrounded by a large crowd of 
villagers after rumors spread that the pair were "ninjas," 
responsible for recent deaths in the area.  After a period of 
negotiations where officials failed to win their release, the 
two policemen were beaten to death.  Eyewitness accounts of the 
Tak Bai incident also describe how rumors were used to gather 
and agitate a crowd while a core group of young male instigators 
worked to direct the crowd's anger.  Given the general level of 
fear and paranoia in the South it is easy to see how a small 
group of organized militants could create these scenarios. 
 
COMMENT: ANOTHER BAD MILESTONE IN THE SOUTH 
------------------------------------------- 
 
14.  (C)  The September 21 murders is another significant 
milestone in the situation in southern Thailand.  Senior 
officials in the NSC told polcouns and visiting EAP/MLS Director 
that the RTG is aware that this incident was a "trap" meant to 
provoke a reaction and attract international attention.  Despite 
their awareness of the "trap," and initial restraint, the RTG's 
likely response will be to do exactly what the militants want -- 
a divisive, harsh crackdown. 
 
15.  (C) COMMENT CONT.  The participation of Princess Sirinthorn 
in the bathing ceremony is highly symbolic act, and sends a 
strong signal to the public.  Normally, a member of the royal 
family will only preside over such a ceremony for a very high 
ranking person or someone who has performed distinguished 
service for the Thai state.  The ceremony's many strong symbols 
-- especially pictures of the Princess anointing the bodies 
while surrounded by Thai flags -- will not be missed by average 
Thais.  The fact that the ceremony took place in a Buddhist 
temple -- located in the middle of an overwhelmingly Muslim 
province -- sends a very different message to the majority 
ethnically Malay Muslims who call Narathiwat their home.  There 
was no royal ceremony for the two Muslims killed the night 
before the two Marines were killed; and no royal scholarships 
were given to their families.  The Princess's extraordinary role 
underscores the tremendous public outrage over the incidents 
which will certainly further polarized the Buddhist and Muslim 
communities.  END COMMENT 
BOYCE