US embassy cable - 05DHAKA4797

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 DHAKA 004797 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAGR, TBIO, ECON, ETRD, PREL, SENV, BG, CDC, EPA, FAO, FEMA, FDA 
SUBJECT: AVIAN INFLUENZA IN BANGLADESH ONLY A MATTER OF 
TIME? 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 7199 
 
Sensitive but unclassified 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  There is currently no indication of avian 
influenza (AI) in Bangladesh.  Conditions, however, are ripe 
for the emergence of AI:  Almost no general public awareness 
of the problem; very poor public health infrastructure; a 
government without the political will to make and enforce 
unpopular decisions necessary to contain an outbreak; no 
livestock insurance for farmers instructed to destroy 
infected flocks; open chicken houses, even on large farms; 
porous national borders; a black market trade in Indian 
chicks, eggs and illegally made avian influenza vaccines; and 
avian influenza in most, if not all, countries surrounding 
Bangladesh.  BDG steps to prevent infection are largely 
limited to poorly enforced restrictions on import of chicks 
from infected countries.  There are signs, however, that the 
BDG is beginning to understand the risks posed by AI.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
POULTRY: A KEY PROTEIN SOURCE 
----------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) Chicken, being the cheapest meat available, has 
outpaced fish as the most common source of high-quality 
protein for Bangladeshis.  One poultry farm owner estimated 
that about 30 eggs and about 1.5 kilograms of chicken are 
consumed per person per year.  (COMMENT: This is an extremely 
small amount but, though it masks the higher consumption 
levels of the better-off, it tracks with the general food 
insecurity of the impoverished half of Bangladesh's 
population. END COMMENT.)  Another farmer estimated that a 
given family of poor Bangladeshis would eat chicken as their 
protein source about four times a week.  Another four times a 
week the same family will consume dal, a lentil/pulse-based 
soup that is an excellent source of vegetable protein. 
 
AND A THRIVING NEW INDUSTRY FOR BANGLADESH 
------------------------------------------ 
 
3.  (U) In the last 10 to 15 years, the poultry industry in 
Bangladesh has grown from about two million "broilers" 
(chickens grown for eventual consumption) in 1992 to 
approximately 250 million produced per year in 2003.  At any 
one time, there are about 20 million broiler chickens in 
Bangladesh.  This figure does not include egg producing 
"layers" or stock chicks.  Syed Abu Siddique, the Secretary 
General of the Bangladesh Poultry Industries Association and 
the Managing Director of Silver Carp Ltd. poultry farm, 
estimates that about 3.5 million people are involved in the 
direct production of poultry in Bangladesh. 
 
4.  (U) The BDG has made an effort to strengthen the poultry 
farming industry in Bangladesh, granting it tax-free status. 
The industry also benefits from the 2004 ban on imported 
poultry, eggs, and stock chicks from nine surrounding 
countries, which the BDG believes to be infected with AI, 
including India.  Thailand has recently begun exporting 
cooked chicken but has not been able to return to the export 
of live chickens, eggs or parent stock. 
 
5.  (U) Following the January 23, 2004 announcement that AI 
was confirmed in Thailand after months of speculation, the 
bottom fell out of the poultry industry in South East Asia, 
including Bangladesh.  A confused local population, deprived 
of high quality information and aware that the government of 
Thailand had long fought the truth of an AI infection within 
its own borders, assumed that "if it can happen there, it can 
happen here" and took no chances with the veracity of the 
BDG. 
 
6.  (SBU) The resulting boycott of poultry sold in 
Bangladesh, regardless of source, lasted for several months. 
Kazi Farm, the largest producer of stock chicks and poultry 
feed and the only poultry exporter in Bangladesh, was forced 
to destroy 8.6 million chicks to avoid huge losses from 
feeding and raising them.  Poultry purchases have returned to 
normal and Bangladesh is now facing a higher demand for 
chicks than local producers can supply, a situation that Kazi 
Farms says will be rectified no later than November of this 
year, when their growing flocks begin laying.  Kazi Zahin 
Hasan, the farm's Director and son of the founder, believes 
that within 6 to 12 months, local supplies of chicks for 
stock will be enough that there will no longer be a need for 
imports from India, which some farmers are pressing for.  Mr. 
Siddique of Silver Carp agrees that production in the 
industry as a whole could be tripled in the same period if 
demand were to increase. 
 
RISKS FOR BANGLADESH 
-------------------- 
 
7.  (U) According to a Wetlands International map of 
migration routes, migratory birds, which are believed to be 
the primary reservoirs of H5N1, fly yearly through Russia, 
China and India.  Russia and China have both had confirmed 
outbreaks of H5N1.  India claims to remain free of the virus 
but, even if HPAI (Highly-Pathogenic Avian Influenza) is not 
present in India, the presence of LPAI is cause for serious 
concern. 
 
8.  (U) An outbreak of AI in Bangladesh would likely 
devastate the domestic poultry industry. While destruction of 
commercial flocks would be a straightforward process to 
execute, requiring little technical expertise, political 
pressures and corruption might delay or prevent the 
destruction of some flocks, allowing the disease to spread 
further.  These problems would be magnified in rural areas 
throughout the country, where there are large numbers of 
small flocks, making containment and eradication difficult. 
 
9.  (U) Even more worrisome would be the emergence of human 
AI infections in Bangladesh, even if only mildly contagious. 
Bangladesh is the most densely populated nation on earth. 
Access to safe sanitation and clean water are problematic for 
much of the population, which often suffers from inadequate 
food and nutrition as well, making them potentially more 
susceptible to disease.  These conditions would be expected 
to facilitate the spread of any human AI infection in 
Bangladesh 
 
TO IMPORT OR NOT TO IMPORT: POLITICS AND THE SPREAD OF DISEASE 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
10.  (SBU) Whether or not Bangladesh is to import any poultry 
from India or if it is to rely on a homegrown industry is of 
central importance regarding the prevention of an AI outbreak 
here.  Available scientific evidence, including published 
test results from the central Indian animal testing 
laboratory in Bhopal, points to the presence of 
Low-Pathogenic Avian Influenza (LPAI) in India.  Swabs from 
Indian farm workers in Chennai, taken in 2000 and tested both 
in India and at the CDC, indicate the presence of H5N1, the 
most virulent strain known of AI and the most likely to kill 
humans.  However, CDC experts reported to New Delhi's Health 
Attache that the results of their assays, though troubling, 
did not confirm the presence of H5N1 in Indian poultry or 
poultry workers at this time. (Reftel). 
 
11.  (U) Vaccines are now routinely produced on the black 
market in India that supposedly protect against both 
Newcastle, a common poultry disease that is not dangerous to 
humans, and AI.  The AI protection is not legal and so it is 
not listed on the bottle, instead the vaccine is called 
"anti-variant" and it is not produced according to OIE 
standards (World Organization for Animal Health), the world 
body that monitors livestock health.  Dr. MM Khan, a 
veterinarian and respected animal health researcher at 
Advance Animal Science Co. Ltd., a Bangladeshi purveyor of 
animal nutrition additives, chicken vaccines and medicines, 
reported in two studies that he passed to EconOff in hard 
copy, that vaccines he obtained from these "backdoor" Indian 
operators caused the chickens he tested them on to begin 
producing antigen to AI, as is expected. 
 
12.  (SBU) Unfortunately, as a result of poor production 
practices and uncontrolled variations in the amount of AI 
virus in these vaccines, it is entirely possible that these 
vaccines could also serve as infectious agents.  Dr. Khan 
claims that the head of Hester Pharmaceuticals in India, an 
animal vaccine manufacturer, recently infected himself and 
his test flock with AI while trying to produce an illegal 
vaccine with a higher titre level (in an attempt to increase 
protection against the disease) and ended up in the hospital. 
 EconOff did not attempt to independently verify the veracity 
of this report. 
 
13.  (U) Following the 2004 outbreak of AI in Thailand, 
Bangladesh banned poultry and stock chick imports from nine 
South and East Asian countries, including India.  In the last 
year, India has faced a surplus of stock chicks, having lost 
the Bangladesh export market, and its farmers are desperate 
to relieve themselves of produce.  The GOI is putting 
pressure on the Minister of Livestock, the government 
official responsible for the ban, to lift restrictions on 
imports of stock chicks from India. 
 
14.  (SBU) There are three major producers of grandparent 
stock chicks that supply the rest of the world.  These 
companies are located in Europe, North America and India.  MM 
Aga Khan Farms in Chittagong, the home district of the 
Livestock Minister, prefers to purchase its grandparent stock 
chicks from India due to the cheaper prices.  Other large 
farms, Kazi farms included, complain that this is 
irresponsible due to the long-term loss that faces the entire 
poultry industry if AI in any form, LPAI or HPAI, crosses 
Bangladesh's borders. 
 
MONITORING AND PRIVATE SECTOR INITIATIVES 
----------------------------------------- 
 
15.  (U) While there is an adequate livestock disease 
monitoring laboratory infrastructure in Bangladesh, according 
to the owner of the largest poultry farm in Bangladesh, Kazi 
Farms, it is of little use to those producers that can afford 
it because there is no confidentiality of test results.  For 
small farm owners, the costs of the government laboratories 
simply put them out of reach entirely.  This means that large 
farms create their own laboratories that may or may not 
provide surveillance information to the OIE, and small farms 
simply do not test. 
 
16.  (U) Kazi farms is leading an initiative to introduce 
livestock insurance to protect farmers that are required to 
destroy their flocks; however, it has garnered almost no 
support among the various poultry breeder and farmer 
associations.  Kazi Farms' has suggested that a tax be 
imposed on the sale of chicks and feed between large farms 
and that the funds from this tax go to a National Livestock 
Insurance Policy and AI surveillance system.  Kazi Zahin 
Hasan, Director of Kazi Farms, explains that the purchase of 
chicken by the consumer need not have an additional tax, only 
the sale of stock and supplies within the industry. 
(COMMENT: This does not mean that the added cost of an 
internal tax on a currently tax-free industry would not be 
passed on to the consumer.  END COMMENT.) 
 
17.  (SBU) The majority of the opposition to this plan comes 
from smaller farms.  Kazi points out, however, that these 
farms are not registered with the government and so are not 
traceable for tax purposes.  It is only the large farms, 
which must register in order to qualify for business loans 
from government banks, which would be vulnerable to any 
taxation system.  These large farms, Kazi argues, can bear 
the expense.  In the event of an AI outbreak, an increasingly 
likely event, the large farms in particular cannot afford to 
ignore the need for livestock insurance funded by a tax or 
some other private procurement, Kazi points out. 
 
18.  (SBU) Without compensation for destroyed chickens, no 
one interviewed by EconOff expects that farmers would 
actually comply with destruction orders.  Dr. MM Khan opined 
that farmers required to dispose of infected birds would 
probably sell them and then claim to have destroyed them.  He 
stated that they might do this anyway, even with livestock 
insurance, thereby getting paid both by the government and by 
a buyer. 
 
BDG RESPONSE MINIMAL, BUT CHANGING 
---------------------------------- 
 
18.  (U) According to a wide array of industry contacts, the 
Minister of Livestock and Fisheries is proactive on the issue 
of AI.  He enacted the nine-country ban in 2004 that is 
largely responsible for protecting Bangladesh's poultry 
industry from infection.  He has been, up to now, the only 
high level BDG official interested in the issue.  However, 
with recent WHO guidelines and USG-generated UNGA publicity 
on the issue, the Health Minister has shown recent interest 
in the issue as well. 
19.  (SBU) Recent attempts by EconOff to meet with the 
Minister of Livestock, supposedly an accessible official, and 
a Director General at the Ministry of Environment, were 
canceled at the last minute by both ministries.  EconOff will 
continue to attempt to meet with officials at all four 
relevant ministries: Livestock, Health, Agriculture and 
Environment. 
 
COMMENT 
-------- 
 
20.  (SBU) "Catastrophe" is probably not an understatement 
for an avian influenza outbreak in Bangladesh.  An industry 
would be wiped out and a source of additional income and 
protein for small-scale occasional farmers would be gone. 
Added food insecurity would only ripen the ground for human 
infections if the virus form that arrives is capable of 
crossing the species barrier.  Even if an early strain of AI 
in Bangladesh is not initially contagious to humans, all 
expert evidence examined by EconOff indicates that it could 
quickly and easily become so. 
 
21.  (SBU) Apart from the Livestock Ministry, the BDG has 
taken little interest in AI.  That seems to be changing, as 
other ministries begin to understand the potential impact of 
a confirmed AI infection in Bangladesh.  Embassy reporting on 
preventive measures in place and likely government response 
to an outbreak will be forthcoming as information becomes 
available. 
CHAMMAS