US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI3917

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003917 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC 
BARBORIAK 
 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958:    N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW 
SUBJECT:  TAIWAN PUBLIC OPINION WITH REGARD TO U.S. 
ARMS PROCUREMENTS 
 
 
1.  Summary: U.S. Deputy Under Secretary of Defense 
Richard Lawless' speech at the 2005 U.S.-Taiwan Defense 
Industry Conference Monday, which was delivered by U.S. 
Defense Security Cooperation Agency's Security 
Cooperation Operations Principal Director Edward Ross, 
has sparked considerable discussion in various media 
venues.  While Taiwan's pending arms procurement bill 
has been a standard topic for some time on the pages of 
the major Taipei dailies, Taiwan Internet forums and 
television talk shows, the statements in the Lawless 
speech aroused fresh attention, especially in 
newsprint. 
 
2.  The pro-independence "Liberty Times," Taiwan's 
biggest daily, ran a banner headline on its front page 
September 21 that read: "U.S. Official Warns That the 
United States Has No Obligation to Defend Taiwan."  All 
the other Chinese-language newspapers carried news 
stories in their inside page on the Lawless speech, 
Taiwan legislators' reactions to statements, and the 
pan-Blue alliance's blocking of the passage of the U.S. 
arms procurement bill in the Legislative Yuan for the 
29th time. 
 
3. Major Chinese-language Taipei dailies September 22 
carried news stories on Taiwan Ministry of National 
Defense's (MND) responses, as well as the reactions of 
more Taiwan legislators, to the Lawless speech.  MND 
General Political Warfare Bureau Director Hu Chen-pu 
was quoted as saying Wednesday that U.S. officials had 
told him during his 2004 U.S. visit that the United 
States has no obligation to defend Taiwan.  Hu also 
said the Taiwan military has always fought alone; it 
would be good if the United States could come to help, 
Hu said, but MND strategies have never included a plan 
involving the United States.  The centrist "China 
Times" reported on Hu's statement on its page four 
under the headline: "In Response to U.S. Official's 
`Harsh Remarks,' Military: [We] Have Never Expected 
That the United States Would Help Defend Taiwan."  The 
pro-unification "United Daily News," however, quoted 
Taiwan Vice Defense Minister Huo Shou-yeh as saying 
that the Pentagon was merely concerned about Taiwan's 
national security as a friend.  Almost all the Taipei 
dailies carried Legislative Yuan President Wang Jin- 
pyng's remarks that the People First Party (PFP) holds 
the critical seats and a tough position regarding U.S. 
arms procurements in the Legislative Yuan, and that the 
PFP therefore has become the key to the arms deal. 
 
4. Both the pro-unification "United Daily News" and 
centrist "China Times" ran news stories on the pan-Blue 
legislators' reactions to the Lawless speech.  PFP 
Legislator Lin Yu-fang said the U.S. criticism is 
interference in Taiwan's domestic affairs and the 
United States is not qualified to criticize Taiwan's 
resolution to defend itself; Lin pointed out that 
Taiwan has bought NT$660 billion of U.S. arms from 1996 
to 2000, and has thus become the second biggest 
overseas buyer of U.S. arms.  KMT Legislator Su Chi 
said U.S. arms procurements are an issue that involves 
politics and finance, adding that Washington might not 
be aware of Taiwan's declining financial situation.  Su 
also said pushing the tough statement of the United 
States is "like pouring oil on a fire." 
 
5. The pro-independence "Liberty Times," on the other 
hand, carried comments by former Cabinet Secretary- 
General Liu Hsih-fang (pro-Green) that maintain that 
Taiwan's political parties should consider U.S. arms 
procurements from the perspective of the island's 
national interests, instead of from the interests of 
political parties.  The newspaper also ran a news story 
that was topped with the headline: "[Former Deputy 
Assistant Secretary for East-Asian and Pacific Affairs] 
Randy Schriver: Cross-Strait Security Will Be More 
Difficult If the [U.S.] Arms Procurement Bill Fails to 
Pass." 
 
6. In terms of editorials and commentaries, editorials 
in the pro-independence "Liberty Times," "Taiwan Daily" 
and English-language "Taipei Times" all criticized the 
pan-Blue camp for disregarding Taiwan's national 
security and blocking the U.S. arms procurement bill 
under the pretense of upholding public opinion.  They 
also warned Taiwan to pay attention to Washington's 
change in both mentality and policy with regard to 
defending Taiwan.  A "Liberty Times" editorial said: 
"The candid remarks by American officials, without 
doubt, have articulated an embarrassing fact that some 
pan-Blue politicians in Taiwan hold the United States 
to a promise that, given its moral responsibility, 
Washington will surely not give up on Taiwan.  They are 
thus waiting fearlessly for the United States to defend 
Taiwan."  A "Taipei Times" editorial concluded by 
saying: "It is time for all the people of Taiwan to 
reach a consensus on national security and show the US 
that Taiwan is not coward, nor a baby that knows only 
how to cry for help but refuses to help itself." 
 
7. "United Daily News" Washington correspondent Vincent 
Chang wrote in an opinion piece that it is embarrassing 
that the United States must "teach" Taiwan how to value 
its security.  Chang urged both the ruling party and 
the opposition parties in Taiwan to actually and 
substantially do something to deal with U.S. arms 
procurements matter.  A famous Taiwan lawyer/law 
professor, Chen Charng-ven, said in a separate opinion 
piece in the "United Daily News" that Taiwan should 
continue to oppose U.S. arms procurements.  Chen, 
however, also said the United States has no obligation 
to defend Taiwan if Taiwan is attacked by China since 
there is no defense pact between Taiwan and the United 
States. Chen said the United States needs China to play 
an important role regarding the North Korean nuclear 
issue, and added chances are slim that the United 
States would resort to using arms against China. 
 
8.  A review of ten Taiwan Internet forums that cover 
the political spectrum September 22 shows that the arms 
procurement topic is among the "top five" in terms of 
generating discussion, with the Lawless speech arousing 
particular attention.  The speech, however, does not 
appear to have made those individuals who oppose the 
U.S. arms procurements to change their positions.  In 
addition, those individuals who have been using the 
forums to criticize the pan-Blue blocking of the bill 
continued to do so, and encouraged the United States to 
exert more pressure on "pro-Chinese political figures 
in Taiwan."   Overall, there were more postings on the 
ten forums against the proposed arms procurements than 
there were in favor of the purchases.  One unusual 
opinion voiced on a Yahoo! Taiwan BBS devoted to 
military and weapon issues said the U.S. concern over 
the arms procurements was linked to a fear of better 
cross-Strait relations:  "It is obvious that many 
stupid people believe that the sale of out-dated 
weapons by the Americans to us at high prices is to 
help Taiwan.  Don't be so silly. ... What they want is 
the strategic position of the oceanic trench, the 
Taiwan Strait, without any care for the life and death 
of the Taiwan people.  ... The United States is nervous 
that the military procurement [budget] cannot be 
approved because the Americans are afraid too much that 
Taiwan will cooperate with China." This last forum does 
not have a clear pan-Blue or pan-Green affiliation. 
 
9. Out of the 8 most popular daily talk shows in Taipei 
-- 4 pro-Green and 4 pro-Blue -- only one revisited the 
issue after the Lawless speech was delivered by Ross in 
San Diego.  The pro-Blue talk show, Two Ladies on the 
Front Line (ONTV), covered the arms procurement bill 
the night of September 22.  The synopsis for this 
particular show (as posted on the station's website) 
does not mention the U.S. official's statements, but 
reads:  "The U.S. arms procurement bill was rejected in 
the Legislative Yuan's Procedure Committee for the 29th 
time.   [Taiwan Premier] Frank Hsieh says, 'I feel 
powerless.'"  The discussions on the other talk shows 
that night focused on recent domestic political rows 
and cross-Strait relations. 
 
KEEGAN