US embassy cable - 05ASUNCION1202

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASUNCION 001202 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PA 
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: LIBERAL PARTY LEADER DISCUSSES ELECTORAL 
PLANS 
 
Classified By: James P. Merz.  Reason 1.4 (b), (d). 
 
1.  (U)  Summary.  In a 9/19 meeting with the Ambassador, 
Sen. Armando Espinola, the Senate leader for the Liberal 
Party, Paraguay,s leading opposition party, discussed plans 
for dealing with party dissidents in Congress and seeking an 
alliance with other political parties.  He bemoaned the 
ruling Colorado Party,s historical advantage in winning 
elections based on patronage and a wider claim to resources. 
He affirmed the Liberals remained opposed to amending the 
Constitution to allow the President to pursue a second term 
in office.  The Ambassador conveyed concern that the 
government not adopt spending policies in a bid to build 
popular support in the run up to next year's elections.  End 
Summary. 
 
2.   (U)  In his meeting with the Ambassador, Sen. Espinola, 
the leader of the Liberal Party in the Senate, focused 
primarily on his Party's efforts to improve its prospects to 
compete with the Colorados in future elections, including 
next year's municipal elections and 2008 Presidential 
elections.  He stressed the advantages that accrue to the 
Colorados after being in power for almost sixty years. 
First, they have access to resources, both public and 
private, with which no other party can compete.  Second, they 
benefit from a party machinery that relies on party leaders 
spread throughout the country politicking on practically a 
full-time basis.  Third, they use patronage liberally to 
shore up and secure support.  Espinola complained that 
Liberals suffer "discrimination" in that even decisions over 
matters as seemingly apolitical as jobs for teachers often go 
to Colorados on the basis of their party affiliation. 
 
3.   (U)  Espinola soberly admitted it was unlikely the 
Liberal Party alone could rally sufficient support to defeat 
the Colorados in any elections in the near future.  As a 
result, he was keen for the Liberals to forge an alliance 
with other opposition parties to challenge the Colorados in 
the November 2006 municipal elections and the 2008 
presidential election.  He lamented that the Free Fatherland 
Party (PPQ) remained insistent on expanding its own political 
base and reluctant to building alliances with other 
opposition parties.  However, he had not given up on PPQ.  He 
regarded forming an alliance with the Union of Ethical 
Citizens (UNACE), the Party of imprisoned coup-plotter Lino 
Oviedo, as key. 
 
4.  (U)  The Colorado Party is competing with the Liberals in 
actively courting UNACE.  Practically all members of UNACE 
were formerly members of the Colorado Party before breaking 
off to create their own party in 2002.  A number of UNACE 
reps have returned to the Colorado Party in recent months. 
Many Liberals share with UNACE a genuine affinity for Oviedo. 
 Thinking strategically, Espinola is afraid a decision by 
UNACE to align itself with the Colorados would give the 
Colorados the votes they need in the Senate to amend the 
constitution to allow for reelection of the president. 
Espinola recently voiced support for granting Oviedo 
political amnesty for his current conviction for involvement 
in a 1996 coup attempt; he also recently visited Oviedo in 
jail.  Espinola said that he would not countenance any legal 
or political deal that would give Oviedo the right to run in 
upcoming elections out of fear over prospects he could well 
win.  Separately, the Colorados have reportedly offered to 
have Oviedo placed under house arrest.  Colorados supporting 
President Duarte would also be hard pressed to allow Oviedo 
to participate in elections.  For his part, Oviedo remains 
insistent on being cleared of all charges presumably so he 
can take a run at political office. 
 
5.  (U)  In the past, the Liberals have signaled a 
willingness to consider amending Paraguay's Constitution to 
enable standing President Duarte to run for reelection in 
exchange for provisions 1) for a second round between the two 
top vote getters in elections should the winner not gain a 
majority and 2) to allow Paraguayans living abroad to vote in 
elections.  Espinola maintained the Liberals were presently 
opposed to this deal.  He was skeptical about prospects for 
the opposition to win in the second round after attacking 
each other in the first round.  While conventional wisdom has 
always held the Liberals have more voters living abroad, he 
was convinced Colorado voters abroad are more organized and 
likely to vote in elections.  The Ambassador similarly 
suspected few Paraguayans living overseas would take the time 
and effort to register and vote in elections back home. 
 
6.  (C)  Espinola remained in favor of adopting a formal 
decision to kick out of the Liberal Party 3 Senators and 6 
Deputies who recently formed a coalition with the governing 
Colorado Party.  This is a difficult decision for the party 
to take as these individuals garnered 9 percent of the vote 
in recent internal elections.  However, Espinola considered 
the position of these Congressmen demoralizing on the 
party,s rank and file.  He believed kicking these 
Congressmen out of the party would facilitate party efforts 
to consolidate behind one strong candidate to oppose the 
Colorados.  He did not believe Liberal Party President Blas 
Llano was interested in running as the Liberal Party 
candidate identifying Senators Carlos Mateo Barmelli and Tito 
Saguier or Deputy Efrain Alegre as possible candidates.  He 
took on board the Ambassador's expression of concern about 
the present government taking on too much debt in adopting 
spending policies in the run-up to national elections. 
Nevertheless, he voiced his own desire that a Liberal backed 
government undertake a sweeping social investment program 
that would involve improving education and social services 
along with infrastucture and may incur taking on some 
considerable debt. 
 
7.  (U)  Comment.  Earlier in the year when the Liberals 
still controlled the Congress as part of a coalition of 
opposition parties, Espinola told Polcouns the Liberals were 
not interested in an electoral coalition, conveying 
confidence his party could challenge the Colorados on its 
own.  Clearly his perspective has changed in the wake of the 
Colorados' successful bid to build a majority coalition in 
the Congress.  While polls hardly demonstrate sweeping 
support for President Duarte, he has effectively consolidated 
his power and benefits from the non-emergence of an 
opposition figure.  It remains too early to comment on 
prospects for building a coalition of opposition parties in 
preparation for elections over a year in the offing.  End 
Comment. 
KEANE