US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI7400

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 007400 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PBTS, SMIG, PTER, BG, IN, India-Bangladesh 
SUBJECT: RISING BANGLADESHI MIGRATION IN INDIA AND THE 
BLAME GAME 
 
REF: A. 02 CALCUTTA 595 
     B. NEW DELHI 5913 
     C. NEW DELHI 5318 
     D. CALCUTTA 246 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoffrey Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) As India grows increasingly concerned about Islamic 
extremism in Bangladesh, there is a rising paranoia about the 
number of Bangladeshi migrants, the nature of a more 
radicalized Islam that they bring to border areas, and 
changes in political demographics in the Northeast.  This 
problem is aggravated by the realization that neither the 
Communist and Congress parties, which in many areas rely on a 
Muslim vote bank, nor Bangladesh, which India claims denies 
all migration, are ready to do anything to stem the problem. 
There is also a widespread perception in Calcutta and 
elsewhere in eastern India that Pakistan, now under greater 
pressure to control terrorism in Kashmir, has switched its 
focus to India's Northeast, where ISI is widely believed to 
be funding Islamic fundamentalism and aiding insurgent 
groups.  Fears about migrants and the causes of 
radicalization are genuine, but somewhat exaggerated.  India 
is partially blaming its neighbors for its own failures in 
the Northeast and along the border, and as a result, the GOI 
will continue to stress its security concerns even as it 
tries to improve ties with Bangladesh. 
 
The Response: Nothing So Far 
----------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) Security analysts in Eastern India have always been 
concerned about Bangladeshi migrants (Ref A), but two events 
have focused the spotlight on the problem and brought it to 
the attention of a wider section of Indian society.  The 
Supreme Court repeal of the Illegal Migrants (Determination 
by Tribunals) Act in July (Ref B) and the August 17 bomb 
blasts in Bangladesh have raised fears that increasing 
numbers of migrants bring with them a radicalized Islam that 
is out of touch with India's primarily moderate religious 
practices.  This fear is enunciated not just by skeptical 
security analysts, by also by moderate Bengali Muslims who 
see a more intolerant breed of Islam taking hold in border 
districts.  The negative effects of the porous border are 
getting wider attention, but Calcutta-based contacts do not 
expect any tough measures either to deport migrants or 
prevent future migration.  The BJP has tried to make the 
repeal of the IMDT Act a national political issue, but 
Congress and Communist ruling parties have exhibited no 
political will to crack down on migrants. 
 
3.  (C) One exception is West Bengal, where the Congress 
party is against the migrants because they tend to vote for 
the CPI(M).  CPI(M) Chief Minister Bhattacharjee is one of 
the few Communist politicians who believes the migrants are 
such a threat that he has publicly made statements against 
migration.  Statements aside, former Deputy Chief of RAW B.B. 
Nandi says there is "no change in the behavior of the 
political parties," who use the migrants.  With little hope 
of Indian action, journalists and the GOI continue to blame 
Dhaka for its poor border management, which allows Northeast 
insurgents to sneak out of India and Bangaldeshi migrants to 
come in. 
 
The Responsibility: India or Bangladesh? 
---------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) When the GOI blames Bangladesh for abetting migration 
and stirring up trouble in the Northeast, some analysts in 
Calcutta call on India first to reflect internally on its 
role in the problem.  Rajat Roy, a journalist for the Bangali 
Anand Bazaar Patrika observed that India's Northeastern 
security problems, such as migrants, insurgents, camps and 
madrassas, are only symptoms of the disease.  He thinks India 
should look harder at the lack of development in the 
Northeast, disgruntlement with the GOI, hawkish policies 
which hurt Bangladesh and the BSF's failure along the border. 
 Most of the Northeast insurgency groups are fighting for 
"independence," and are tapping into a sentiment in a region 
that has been excluded by India's process of nation-building 
and modernization (Ref D).  Even when the GOI does send 
development funds into the Northeast, Roy alleged, corruption 
is so rampant that the funds are leaked to the insurgent 
groups.  Delhi has entered into peace talks with only a few 
of the proliferating separatist groups, and those have not 
led to any dramatic changes.  If insurgent groups are growing 
and their members are sneaking across the porous border into 
Bangladesh, Roy argued, Delhi should examine its own 
political failures instead of blaming the GOB. 
 
5.  (C) Chandan Nandi, a former "Hindustan Times" journalist 
who is writing a thesis on this topic at Brandeis University, 
explained how anti-migration politicians have played up the 
fear of Muslim infiltrators before elections.  Congress 
passed the IMDT Act to protect migrants after the 1983 Assam 
assembly elections massacre, when a "drive out the foreigners 
movement" killed a few thousand Bangaldeshi migrants.  As 
Chandan pointed out, migrants did not feel the need to 
purchase illegal voting rights until after 1983 massacre.  As 
more migrants gained the right to vote, they quickly became a 
protected vote bank for Congress and Communist parties.  This 
violent history and the continued efforts to exaggerate the 
threat of immigration makes the migrants more susceptible to 
radicalism. 
 
6.  (C) B.B. Nandi, the former Deputy Chief of RAW, argued 
that if the MEA is really concerned with migrants, they 
should be focusing on solutions to the problem that avoid 
accusations against the GOB.  He suggested, for instance, 
encouraging Indian investment in the border areas to increase 
employment within Bangladesh.  Concerned third party donors 
could require that a certain percentage of their aid go to 
border areas.  A work permit system would allow legal 
economic migration while reducing the illegal acquisition of 
voting rights and lowering tension along the border. 
 
7.  (C) The BSF, which has more resources than its 
Bangaldeshi counterpart, also gets some of the blame for not 
stopping migration.  According to Anil Kamboj, an Additional 
DIG from BSF now at a Delhi-based think tank, the ratio of 
BSF to BDR guards is almost two to one.  Additional Deputy 
General of the BSF in Eastern India Damodar Sarangi told 
Poloff that the BSF had sufficient guards to protect the 
border and believed the fencing, now almost half finished, 
should block future migration.  But corrupt guards block GOI 
efforts along the border.  Journalist Chandan Nandi described 
the system of "dalals," or middlemen, which sprouted up along 
the border as migration became more difficult.  Fencing has 
only increased the economic costs of migrating in unfenced 
areas, so that instead of paying off a BSF guard one hundred 
rupees to look the other way, migrants now have to pay a 
middleman five hundred rupees to make the arrangements for 
safe transport across the border.  RAW retiree B.B. Nandi 
commented that any post office manager in Calcutta knows that 
BSF guards send home approximately five times their salary to 
their families around India. 
 
The Demographics: Muslims Increasing Political Force in NE 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
8.  (C) The accusations that the Congress and Communist 
parties cater to Muslim migrants as a vote bank by giving 
them illegal voting rights have raised concerns in political 
circles about the effect of the "demographic invasion."  Ajai 
Sahni, Executive Director of the Institute for Conflict 
Management, estimates the illegal influx at about 300,000 
persons per year.  This translates to just over 800 people 
daily coming across India's porous 4,095 kilometer border 
with Bangladesh.  Even if these numbers are exaggerated, West 
Bengal BJP President Tathagata Roy pointed out that Muslims 
are now a majority in eight out of twenty-three districts in 
Assam and three out of twenty districts in West Bengal.  As 
more Muslims move in, Hindus gradually leave the area, 
increasing the migrants' election power.  In Calcutta, both 
former Deputy Chief of RAW B.B. Nandi and Inspector General 
of the Intelligence Branch of the West Bengal Police Dilip 
Mitra told Poloff that the number of migrants in the Indian 
area around the border is so high that it has effectively 
moved the border of Bangladesh ten to fifteen kilometers into 
India. 
 
The Religion: Signs of Extremism 
--------------------------------- 
 
9.  (C) Although the majority of migrants are only looking 
for economic opportunities across the border, Mission 
contacts fear that migrants are bringing a more radicalized 
form of Islam with them to India.  Subir Bhaumik, a BBC 
Correspondent for Eastern India who specializes in Bangladesh 
and border issues, believes that the fear of the number of 
migrants is exaggerated, but agrees that the migrants may be 
more prone to religious radicalism.  Dr. S.B. Roychowdhury, a 
professor at Calcutta's Rabindra Bharati University, has seen 
a rise in the number of mosques built in the West Bengal 
border areas with outside funding and Wahabi influence.  Roop 
Sen, who manages anti-trafficking programs along the border, 
observed that there are surprisingly well-funded mosques and 
madrassas even in very poor migrant slums.  Nandi noted that 
mullahs in this same area have put out fatwahs, or religious 
opinions, against the Sufi "Baum" community to ostracize them 
economically and socially.  The West Bengal government, 
although aware of this penal offense, has not taken action 
out of fear of losing popularity before elections next 
spring. 
 
10.   (SBU) In another example, authorities in Calcutta found 
leaflets in the name of "Mujahdeen Al Quaida Pacific 
International" directly after the August 17 bomb blasts in 
Bangladesh.  The Deputy Commissioner for the Special Branch 
reported that two people were arrested for distributing 
leaflets and collecting money in the name of Bin Laden.  He 
added that there was no connection with Al Qaeda terrorists 
and the leaflets were a fundraising scam, but worried that 
the ability to raise funds suggests that there is support in 
Calcutta for the fundamentalist cause.  According to the 
Deputy Commissioner, there are 400 registered madrassas and 
5000 unregistered madrassas in West Bengal. 
 
The Culprit: Predictably, ISI 
----------------------------- 
 
11.  (C) Bangladesh watchers in Delhi and Calcutta blame 
Pakistan's ISI for radicalizing the population.  In a recent 
report, Institute for Conflict Management Executive Director 
Ajai Sahni accuses the ISI of moving operations from Kashmir 
to the Northeast by funding madrassas and training camps and 
creating linkages between Northeast insurgent groups and 
Muslim fundamentalists.  The ISI is funding madrassas along 
the border, former Deputy Chief of RAW Nandi commented, to be 
a "thorn in India's other side."  The BBC's Subir Bhaumik, 
who has traveled extensively throughout the area, speculated 
that "ISI keeps the pot boiling in the NE" to keep the Indian 
military preoccupied outside of Kashmir.  Lieutenant-General 
of Military Intelligence Deepak Summanwar told a recent 
academic visitor to India of his concerns regarding ISI's 
"free movement" in Bangladesh.  India hinted at these 
connections on August 29 when it gave Pakistan a list of 
wanted people which included ULFA Commander-in-Chief Paresh 
Barua, whom the GOI believes is living in Dhaka with 
Pakistani assistance. 
 
Comment: Migrant Paranoia Blocks Bilateral Progress 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
12.  (C) Opposition to migrants has always resonated in the 
Northeast, but as with the US-Mexico border, a porous 
frontier is made more so by economic and political pull 
factors.  Now, imported radicalism and shifting demographics 
are putting new strains on the Indo-Bangaldeshi relationship. 
 The GOI focus on security issues underlines that India and 
Bangladesh do not share the same negotiating priorities. 
When Dhaka brings up trade and water, Delhi wants to talk 
about its border security concerns and Indian insurgents in 
Bangladesh.  The MEA tells us they are looking for creative 
ways to make progress with Dhaka through economic 
concessions, but lack of political will and security concerns 
have held up progress thus far in other areas.  Upcoming 
elections in Assam and West Bengal may aggravate both 
situations because the UPA is not likely to toughen up on 
migrants and the BJP will play up the anti-immigration card. 
As a result, the GOI will continue to blame Bangladesh for 
its security concerns rather than offering bold initiatives 
to ease the bilateral gridlock.  Meanwhile, some 800 illegals 
cross into India daily. 
 
13.  (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: 
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) 
BLAKE