US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD3929

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 003929 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, IZ 
SUBJECT: SADRISTS LIKELY TO BACK CONSTITUTION 
 
REF: (A) BAGHDAD 3898 (B) BAGHDAD 3887 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT FORD FOR REASONS 
1.4 (B) AND (D). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY.  In conversations earlier this week, 
Sadrists and affiliates told PolOff that Muqtada al-Sadr 
will tell his people to vote in favor of the constitution 
in the October 15 referendum.  They dismissed reports that 
Sadr is opposed to the constitution as rumors spread by 
Sadr's opponents.  Throughout the conversations, PolOff 
stressed that Sadr should pursue his goals through the 
political process and not through violence.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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Sadr Will Support Constitution, Some Say 
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2. (C) PolOff met with Sadrist TNA members Nassar Zgair 
Darbi al Ruba'i (September 18) and Kareem al Bukhati 
(September 19), as well as with Sayed Emad Kelanter, who 
runs a religious school in Najaf and is related by marriage 
to both Muqtada al Sadr and Grand Ayatollah Sistani 
(September 21).  They all told PolOff that Muqtada al-Sadr 
supports the constitution and will tell his followers to 
vote in favor of it in the referendum to be held October 
15.  Nassar al Ruba'i and Kareem al Bukhati both said that 
Sadr plans to make a public announcement to his followers 
after copies of the constitution have been distributed to 
the Iraqi people.  They also reported that Sadr is not 
opposed to federalism, as conventional wisdom holds.  All 
three reported that Sadr realizes that no constitution will 
fully satisfy any group.  According to them, Sadr views the 
constitution as "good for the Shia". 
 
3. (C) During these conversations, PolOff stressed that 
Sadr should pursue his objectives through the democratic 
political process and not through violence.  The USG wants 
the Iraqi Government to maintain law and order in Iraq. 
The deployment of militias is not acceptable and will cause 
problems with Coalition Forces, he cautioned. 
 
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A Dissenting View in Public 
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4. (C) By contrast, Dr. Jawad Sumaysim, brother of top Sadr 
aide Ali Sumaisym, was quoted September 19 by the Iraqi 
newspaper Al Kasid as saying that when Sadr called for his 
followers to register for the upcoming elections, he was 
not necessarily telling them to vote in favor of the 
constitution.  Sumaisym added that Sadr still has some 
reservations about certain provisions in the constitution, 
especially federalism. 
 
5. (C) COMMENT:  We have no firsthand knowledge of how 
Muqtada thinks and, as noted in reftel, he remains a key 
wild card in the upcoming referendum.  Our Shia contacts 
claim that Sadr would never cross Ayatollah Sistani should 
the latter publicly support the draft constitution (he has 
not done so yet).  Sadr has avoided making common cause 
with the emerging Sunni Arab campaign to defeat the draft 
constitution, however (ref b).  The aforementioned 
conversations were held with Sadrists who have a vested 
interest in continued engagement in the political process. 
They also are comparative moderates among Muqtada's 
followers. Nonetheless, their similar comments indicate 
that at least some in Muqtada's movement are counting on 
their leader supporting the constitution.  We suspect 
Sumaysim's comments may have aimed at boosting Sadr's 
electoral standing among Sunni Arabs, as the Sadrists eye 
the December elections.  END COMMENT. 
 
Khalilzad