US embassy cable - 05PARIS6471

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 006471 
 
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E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - Iran Nuclear Threat Katrina 
and Iraq - Impact on Bush Presidency Iraq - Basra Incident 
PARIS - Thursday, September 22, 2005 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
1. Iran Nuclear Threat 
2. Katrina and Iraq - Impact on Bush Presidency 
3. Iraq - Basra Incident 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
Two of today's front pages (Le Figaro and France Soir) are 
devoted to Hurricane Rita and the state of alert declared in 
the Gulf of Mexico. Inside, related stories report on the grim 
consequences for oil production and on the evacuation of 
coastal regions. One story in Le Figaro by Arnaud de La Grange 
notes the "Franco-American cooperation" between French and 
American divers in Louisiana after Katrina: "There was no 
problem of adaptation between the teams. thanks to previous 
interaction within NATO. And the French were cordially 
received by the Americans, `who assigned us our first missions 
immediately after our arrival.' Beyond the technical 
assistance, the military aid accepted by Washington stands as 
a symbol which reflects what General Bentegeat said: ` French 
and American relations are back to their normal cruising speed 
of before the Iraqi crisis.'" 
 
Thierry de Monbrial of IFRI analyzes the impact of Katrina in 
a front-page column in Le Monde, titled "The Lessons of 
Katrina." Weekly Le Nouvel Observateur devotes its editorial 
to President Bush and the effects that Colin Powell's recent 
declarations about Iraq may have on his popularity. Iraq and 
the situation in Basra are analyzed in Liberation. Le Monde 
devotes its editorial to the Iranian nuclear crisis. (See Part 
C) 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
Iran Nuclear Threat 
 
"Iranian Escalation" 
Left-of-center Le Monde in its unsigned editorial (09/22): 
"The Iranian nuclear crisis is turning into something serious 
and it is tempting to establish a comparison with the crisis 
which preceded the war in Iraq. At first glance, the same 
causes could produce the same effects. Exasperated by what 
they consider to be fruitless negotiations, the Iranians have 
unilaterally reverted to uranium conversion. The Americans and 
the Europeans feel they have no other choice but to put the 
issue in the hands of the UNSC. But nothing indicates that a 
consensus could be reached: Teheran has the support of Russia 
and China who have a right of veto. Herein lies the danger. If 
the Iranian crisis causes a stalemate at the UN, the U.S. 
could decide to annihilate Iran's nuclear program with 
military strikes. At this stage such a scenario is improbable. 
President Bush must still have in mind the Iraqi precedent. 
First, because the `proof' about the WMD turned out to be 
false. Second because the U.S. President would probably lack 
the support of his people to launch a new military adventure. 
But the President's popularity is at its lowest, which could 
lead him to do something drastic. The Europeans meanwhile 
should not be fooled by Tehran's denials, nor ignore the 
Iranian arguments: uranium enrichment is not prohibited by the 
NPT. And it is not false to say that in closing its eyes to 
Israel, India and Pakistan's nuclear programs, America is 
indeed practicing a policy of double standards. A firm warning 
from the UN is desirable in order to show Iran that the 
international community will not tolerate an atomic bomb built 
by the mullahs. But the Europeans must also remain wary of war 
mongers." 
 
Katrina and Iraq - Impact on Bush Presidency 
 
"Bush: The Real Trial" 
Jean Daniel in left-of-center weekly Le Nouvel Observateur 
(09/22): "The real historic trial of President Bush has just 
started with Colin Powell's testimonial on ABC. where the 
former Secretary of State calmly acknowledged that the 
information he was given on WMD was false. He also criticized 
the peace operations in Iraq that immediately followed the 
military successes. And he is doing it in exactly the same way 
as foreign commentators who at the time were accused of anti- 
Americanism. Powell's implacable self-criticism justifies 
retroactively the firm approach adopted by the then FM, 
Villepin. I contend that if Katrina had not unleashed such bad 
press for the President, Barbara Walters would not have asked 
Powell to talk. Hurricane Katrina has in fact liberated the 
American media and it is no coincidence if since the tragedy, 
the conservative U.S. press is calling for a pullout from 
Iraq. Americans accepted with surprising resignation their 
President's lies about WMD. But Americans do not like to be 
lied to. If Iraq had turned into a military success, they 
might have forgotten. Under the present circumstances, 
President Bush's historic trial has begun. The American people 
will not forgive itself its own leniency." 
 
"The Lessons of Katrina" 
Thierry de Montbrial in left-of-center Le Monde (09/22): "With 
Katrina, it is the world's number one power that was hit, not 
a third world country. And the U.S. found itself as unprepared 
as Thailand after the Tsunami. The first lesson to be learned 
is that, faced with a brutal emergency situation, the ability 
to respond is commensurate with the level of preparation. This 
is true of natural disasters, but it is also true of wars. 
Another lesson is that nature will continue to cause ravages 
and some will be due to human activity. While Katrina was 
probably not in that category, it should serve as a warning, 
especially for countries like the U.S. and China which tend to 
treat climate changes with contempt. Globalization triggers 
global problems and requires global solutions. Since the U.S. 
holds a leadership position. it is its responsibility to 
exercise its leadership in this area. In the short term, one 
of the lessons from Katrina is that it will put President Bush 
in a difficult position during his second term. Americans are 
finding that not only are their boys in Iraq for unclear and 
unrealistic reasons, but even worse, that the mobilization for 
Iraq has seriously compromised domestic security. 
Consequently, the pressure to bring back the troops from Iraq 
can be expected to intensify." 
 
Iraq - Basra Incident 
 
"Blair Is in Denial" 
Armelle Thorval in left-of-center Liberation (09/21): "The 
British government refuses to acknowledge that the situation 
in Iraq is getting worse, and not only in Baghdad but also in 
the South. For Blair, the riot in Basra is an `incident' which 
does not reflect the real situation. This attitude of denial, 
this exercise which is aimed at proving to the British people 
that the British are in Iraq for a good cause, is beginning to 
be a source of national irritation. In reality, the Basra riot 
is making British `propaganda' difficult. For the British 
government, the Basra region has symbolized a zone of relative 
calm proving the political effectiveness of the British in 
rebuilding an independent Iraqi police force." STAPLETON