US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD3926

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003926 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, KDEM, IZ, Sunni Arab 
SUBJECT: TWO SUNNI ARAB INDEPENDENTS DISCOUNT CHANCES FOR 
SUNNI ARAB SUPPORT FOR CONSTITUTION 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Ford for reasons 
1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Two relative Sunni Arab political 
independents told us earlier this week that Sunni Arabs 
likey will vote in force against the draft constitution on 
October 15.  Hatem al-Mukhlis, from Salah ad-Din province, 
told us that it would be better for the Sunni Arabs to help 
draft a new constitution after the December 2005 elections. 
Shaykh Fawaz Jarba from Ninewa in northwest Iraq told us 
that few people in his region know much about the draft. 
Both men perceived that many view the draft as helping the 
Kurds and threatening Iraq's national unity, and thus would 
not gain much support.  Poloffs cautioned that the draft is 
the best way to maintain Iraq's national unity, but clearly 
convincing Sunni Arabs to support the constitution on 
October 15 is not going to be easy.  End Summary. 
 
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View from Tikrit:  Worry about National Unity 
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2. (C)  Hatem al-Mukhlis, Editor in Chief of Al Watan 
newspaper and political hopeful, told PolOff September 20 
that the constitution referendum should be postponed until 
after the December election to ensure better Sunni Arab 
representation in the drafting process.  Mukhlis repeated 
warnings of the breakup of Iraq as Kurdish and Shia 
communities form their own regions. Mukhlis also claimed 
there is a concerted, Iranian effort to destabilize Iraq. 
 
3. (C)  Mukhlis recalled a meeting he attended in 2004 at 
which Kurdish officials changed the wording on their table 
setting tag from "Iraq" to "Kurdistan." He said the 
frequency of such separatist gestures has increased. 
Despite assurances by PolOff to the contrary, he insisted 
the current constitution will allow Kurdistan to open an 
embassy in Washington "within a few years." 
 
4. (C)  Mukhlis predicted that the constitution will pass 
in the referendum despite heavy Sunni Arab opposition. 
Mukhlis candidly revealed that many Sunni Arabs will vote 
against the constitution only to spite the perceived US 
pressure to pass it. He felt the new constitution would not 
improve the daily situation for any Iraqis. 
 
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More Splits Among Sunni Political Groups ? 
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5. (C)   Mukhlis believes the main Sunni Arab political 
parties-- especially the Iraqi Council for National 
Dialogue (ICND)-- would continue to fracture along 
religious lines and form new factions of Islamic, secular, 
independent, and tribal groups. He said the September 20 
call by ICND's Saleh Mutlak during the Hawija Conference to 
form a "National Front" stemmed from divisions within the 
Dialogue group.  (Comment:  while Mutlak has sought to line 
up support to overturn the draft constitution, other 
members of the Dialog group have pondered whether last- 
minute changes to the draft might be possible.  However, as 
we have reported, the Sunni Arabs have not been able to 
agree on a common position and no one has been willing 
publicly to act independently.  End Comment.) 
 
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How to Get Sunni Arabs into Iraqi Mainstream 
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6. (C)   The solution offered by Mukhlis to decrease 
current instability would be to hire more Sunni Arabs into 
the Iraqi Police and Iraqi Army. PolOff outlined USG 
efforts to ensure Sunni Arab inclusion in democratic Iraq, 
but added that but there has been insufficient response 
from Sunni Arab leaders. Mukhlis countered that many do 
apply, but Shia leaders in the IP and IA reject Arab Sunni 
applicants. 
 
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A View from rural Ninewa 
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7.  (C)  Separately, National Assembly member Shaykh Fawaz 
Jarba from the Shammar tribal region west of Mosul told 
PolCouns September 20 that he anticipated most of the Sunni 
Arabs in his region would vote against the draft 
constitution on October 15.  He knew of no local leader 
among the Sunni Arabs making a strong case for the draft. 
(He hastened to add that the National Dialog Council and 
Saleh Mutlak have little influence; they are perceived as 
ex-Baathists and a source of Iraq's present problems.) 
Jarba conceded that few knew much about the constitution. 
However, there was worry about what federalism means. 
There is also growing tension between Kurds and Sunni 
Arabs, and many Arabs perceive the constitution helps the 
Kurds.  PolCouns rejoined that the constitution was the 
result of compromises but that the document would be the 
best way to keep the country together.  Jarba did not 
disagree but said opposition already is very deep among the 
Sunni Arabs in western Ninewa. 
Khalilzad