US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV5779

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 005779 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KPAL, EAID, KWBG, PREF, IS, IR, LE, EG, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, GOI INTERNAL, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS 
SUBJECT: FM SHALOM MEETING WITH CODEL DAVIS 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  PLEASE TREAT ACCORDINGLY. 
 
1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom briefed 
CODEL Davis August 31 on the Government of Israel's 
Disengagement Plan, and anticipated costs associated with 
moving military forces and with developing the Negev and the 
Galilee.  Asked about post-Disengagement scenarios and PM 
Sharon's domestic political prospects, Shalom said that 
Israel is committed to moving forward with the Palestinians 
and needs to determine whether the Gaza model is working. 
Shalom said that Sharon stands a "good chance" of weathering 
the political storm within the Likud Party.  End Summary. 
 
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KATRINA, COUNTER-TERRORISM 
-------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) On August 31, CODEL Davis met with Israeli FM Silvan 
Shalom.  Shalom expressed his full sympathy to the United 
States and to CODEL Davis in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. 
Shalom praised the U.S. lead in fighting terrorism, and said 
Al-Qaeda is determined to fight democracy, the rule of law 
and those who are close to the West or to Israel.  "Terrorism 
is not just in Israel now," Shalom remarked, adding that the 
international community appears to be "more determined" in 
combating it. 
 
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REGIONAL TRENDS, CONCERN ABOUT IRAN 
----------------------------------- 
 
3.  (SBU) Shalom commented on positive regional trends, 
highlighting Palestinian elections, elections in Iraq, Egypt 
and Kuwait, and the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon.  On a 
negative note, Shalom assessed that Iran is "trying to buy 
time" and "is close to having the knowledge (required) to 
build a bomb."  He said it would be a nightmare if Iran has a 
bomb, not just for Israel, but for others like the EU as 
well.  "We need to be determined and tougher than now," 
Shalom continued, "and help the EU and the (U.S.) 
Administration take a real move or a decision to move the 
issue to the Security Council."  He expressed interest in 
resuming a strategic dialogue on Iran. 
 
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DISENGAGEMENT AND THE PA 
------------------------ 
 
4.  (SBU) Shalom said that many Israelis did not support 
disengagement, and acknowledged that he had not supported the 
idea initially in the absence of negotiations with the 
Palestinians.  Shalom maintained that Israel "is committed to 
move forward with the Palestinians.  We need to determine if 
the Gaza model is working or not.  Will Gaza be Switzerland 
or a place for launching rockets at Israeli towns?"  If more 
terrorism occurs, Shalom said, it will be a very long time 
before a new Israeli prime minister is able to take any 
further steps.  On the West Bank, Shalom described the 
situation as "totally different" from that of Gaza: "the 
Jewish people have more links to the West Bank than to Gaza." 
 He compared Gaza to southern Lebanon as two places where "we 
do not have to be." 
 
5.  (U) Shalom insisted that President Abbas must make a 
strategic decision to dismantle terrorist groups.  If Abbas 
seizes this opportunity, he will find a real partner (in 
Israel), according to Shalom, who argued that "no Authority 
can allow gangs (or) terrorist groups to hold and use 
weapons."  Shalom reasoned that these groups "can hurt us, 
but they cannot undermine our existence.  However, they can 
hurt or eliminate him (Abbas)."  Shalom said the U.S. will 
always have a big role to play, and that it is important for 
Israel to be able show support from the U.S. after 
disengagement.  He noted Israel's plan to move military bases 
from Gaza and to develop the Galilee and Negev, and mentioned 
Israel's request for two billion USD towards the cost of 
these plans, of which 1.3 billion would be for development. 
 
6.  (U) Chairman Tom Davis (R-VA) asked FM Shalom who will 
control Gaza after disengagement: the PA or Hamas or the 
Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)?  Representative Al Wynn 
(D-MD) inquired about worst-case scenarios 
post-disengagement.  Shalom responded that Israel intends to 
fully withdraw from Gaza and to continue working with the PA 
on security and economic issues such as customs.  In reply to 
the Chairman's specific question about Hamas and PIJ, said 
Israel will not "put decisions in the hands of (these) 
extremists" who want to undermine President Abbas by 
provoking Israeli retaliation.  Shalom clarified that Israel 
does not want to reenter Gaza, but warned that Israel would 
respond to fire from Gaza. 
 
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EGYPT AND LEBANON 
----------------- 
 
7.  (SBU) Egypt has a stake in preventing terrorism from 
"leaking" into Egypt from Gaza.  Shalom praised Egypt's role 
in working with the Palestinians, and commented that 
bilateral relations are "much better."  He nonetheless 
criticized Egyptian stances in international fora and Egypt's 
failure to encourage other Arabs to engage with Israel. 
 
8.  (SBU) In response to a question posed by Representative 
Darrell Issa (R-CA) about whether Palestinians in Lebanon 
might return to Gaza, Shalom recalled Israel's long-standing 
opposition to a "right of return" for Palestinians to Israel 
and remarked that "most of those (refugees) in Lebanon were 
not born in Palestine (or modern day Israel)."  Shalom said a 
more important priority, from Israel's point of view, is for 
the PA to resettle those Palestinians currently living in 
refugee camps in Gaza, and to put an end to the symbol (of a 
"right of return" to Israel) that Gaza refugee camps 
represent.  He did not elaborate explicitly where the Gazan 
refugees should be resettled or moved, but intimated that 
they would stay in the Gaza Strip. 
 
------------------------- 
DOMESTIC ISRAELI POLITICS 
------------------------- 
 
9.  (SBU) Shalom said that PM Sharon is under attack and "may 
pay a price."  Shalom claimed Likud's membership has fallen 
from 330,000 to 154,000 since the last election, but he did 
not say he attributes this decrease to Sharon's policies. 
Representative Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) congratulated PM 
Sharon's achievement with disengagement, and inquired about 
Sharon's struggle within the Likud Party and his chances for 
political success in Israel.  Citing his own political 
support for Sharon in recent campaigns, Shalom responded 
simply "Sharon has a good chance." 
 
10. (U) CODEL Davis did not have an opportunity to clear this 
message before departing post. 
 
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