US embassy cable - 05MANILA4491

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MANILA 004491 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/PBMS, EAP/PA, EAP/PD, INR/EAP 
NSC FOR GREEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PINS, KPAO, RP 
SUBJECT:  MORE COVERAGE IN PHILIPPINE PRESS OF ALLEGED 
CLASSIFIED US REPORTS 
 
REF:  (A) MANILA 4466 (B) Manila 4433 (C) MANILA 4417 
 
(D) MANILA 1674 
 
 
1.  Anti-government, pro-opposition daily "The Philippine 
Daily Inquirer" printed another in a series of daily 
articles summarizing and analyzing purported classified US 
Embassy reports on the front page in its edition of 
September 23.  Following is the full text of the article. 
 
BEGIN TEXT 
 
"SPECIAL REPORT: US Report Details Coup Plotters' July 
Meet"  (Philippine Daily Inquirer, 9/23/05) 
 
THE US EMBASSY in Manila "quietly" put contingency 
plans in place when it received inside information that 
a plot against President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo was 
discussed at a meeting in July of 20 to 30 active 
military officers. 
 
In an "informal assessment" prepared by a "senior USG 
(US government) policy-maker" dated July 30, the 
embassy detailed the conduct of the meeting attended 
mostly by Filipino Army and Navy officers based in 
Metro Manila.  It said the "initial meeting" was 
chaired by a former member of the Young Officers Union. 
But the name of the officer and those of the other 
officers present were blacked out in the document, 
which was obtained by the Inquirer from a source who 
requested anonymity.  The report also said a veteran US 
diplomat had privately expressed concern about the 
consequences if Ms Arroyo were seriously challenged, 
"noting she would not go gracefully." 
 
"USG cannot fully discount the possibility of a near- 
term attempt to oust Arroyo but sees no chance of 
success in the absence of a visible opposition 
politician who would face the many challenges 
confronting the country," the three-page report said. 
"We have nonetheless quietly readied our task force 
capabilities, aided also by a recent crisis management 
exercise," it said, adding:  "In July 2003, we also saw 
no chance of disgruntled AFP (Armed Forces of the 
Philippines) elements successfully mounting a coup, but 
this reality did not prevent them from trying to do 
so."  It was apparently referring to the "Oakwood 
mutiny" of July 28, 2003, wherein junior officers took 
over a building of serviced apartments in the heart of 
Makati City's central business district. 
 
'Militics'  The report, one of several supposed files 
of the US government obtained by the Inquirer, showed 
that American agents were able to monitor a meeting of 
military plotters and to learn how potential recruits 
were being indoctrinated.  It is believed to be among 
the estimated 100 documents downloaded by Filipino- 
American intelligence analyst Leandro Aragoncillo from 
US Federal Bureau of Investigation files, for which he 
is facing espionage charges along with former 
Philippine National Police Senior Supt. Michael Ray 
Aquino. 
 
The report said the "clandestine meeting" included a 
lecture on "militics," or the link between military 
might and politics, and how this had supposedly been 
used by the Arroyo administration to the disadvantage 
of the AFP.  "[What was stressed were the] inequities 
within the branches of the Philippine military, 
specifically citing higher pay for police than military 
officers and differences in both policies and 
compensation among military officers," it said.  The 
report said that the legitimacy of the Arroyo 
presidency was challenged at the meeting, and that a 
call was made for "change, even violent change." 
 
'Be prepared'  "[Another point made was] the need to 
support the country, professing that allegiance to 
country was different [from] support for the 
government," it said.  The chair of the meeting 
encouraged the active officers "to be prepared to 
respond by abandoning their posts and announcing their 
defiance of government control when the time comes," 
according to the report.  It said "a nebulous plan" was 
presented, "to effect chaos and mutiny, allowing the 
establishment of a governing council led by responsible 
leaders." 
The report said US Embassy officials had spoken with 
then AFP Chief of Staff General Efren Abu and were told 
that there were indeed "reports of grumbling in the 
military involving junior officers."  "Abu acknowledged 
a 'gap' between junior and senior officers, but said he 
did not think there was a serious problem despite the 
current political situation," it said. 
 
The report was prepared after the worst of the 
political crisis to buffet the Arroyo administration -- 
which included the resignation of six Cabinet members 
and four key government officials -- occurred on July 
8.  On the same day, former President Corazon Aquino 
and Senate President Franklin Drilon, both former 
allies of Ms Arroyo, called on her to step down. 
 
'Itching for action'   The July 30 report also 
mentioned a rumor, "peddled by an opposition fringe 
activist," that a new group of young officers might be 
"itching for action, 'with or without civilian 
participation.'"  It said: "Arroyo and members of her 
team have asserted that the opposition is making 
charges relating to 'jueteng' and the [Hello Garci] 
tapes as part of a wider destabilization plot. 
Meanwhile, Malacaang has not proffered solid evidence 
that any plot is actually under way, nor what its time 
frame might be, although security forces claimed that 
some retired officers were involved in 'active 
recruiting' for a destabilization plot..." 
 
In a June 2 report attributed to then US Charg 
d'Affaires Joseph Mussomeli, the US Embassy identified 
two groups looking to oust Ms Arroyo -- one made up of 
field-grade and junior officers, and the other, of 
"flag officers."  "The volume and frequency of rumors 
that a military coup to oust Arroyo is imminent have 
increased," the June 2 report said.  It was only in the 
July 30 report, however, that the US Embassy said it 
had taken precautionary steps in the event of a coup 
attempt. 
 
'Common fare'   US Embassy documents in the possession 
of the Inquirer, dated as early as February 2005, have 
mentioned coup reports and rumors, and dismissed these 
as "routine."  "We recognize, however, that rumors of 
coup plots are pretty common fare these days," said an 
embassy report dated April 14. 
 
It appeared that the US Embassy had been monitoring 
coup talk since early this year, when the political 
crisis had yet to be triggered by allegations of 
receiving jueteng payola against members of the First 
Family and the "Hello Garci" tapes.  "A few fringe 
politicos have regaled us with innuendo about plots to 
seize power. There is a lot of such talk on the 
streets, and it has caught the attention of the 
embassy," the April 14 report said.  It said that 
during discussions on political stability, Ms Arroyo 
seemed to take the coup threats seriously. 
 
Arroyo conduct.  "[The President] expressed no doubts 
about the credibility of these coup threats. Arroyo 
also made mention of previous, apparently inaccurate, 
reports that had claimed destabilization efforts were 
imminent," the report said.  "Arroyo appeared to listen 
closely to the opinions of Executive Secretary Eduardo 
[Ermita] and Defense Secretary Avelino 'Nonong' Cruz 
when the Cabinet debated threats to the 
administration," it said. 
 
From the April 2 report, it appeared that US agents 
were closely monitoring not only coup threats but also 
the conduct of the President's meetings with her 
Cabinet. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END TEXT 
 
2.  A second article in the "Philippine Daily Inquirer" 
of 9/23/05 printed reactions of Filipino politicians 
named yesterday in an alleged USG report profiling 
political leaders in the country (ref A). 
 
BEGIN TEXT 
 
"Gee, Thanks, Uncle Sam; Lucky Pols Mighty Pleased" 
(Philippine Daily Inquirer, 9/23/05) 
The US Embassy's profiling of the Philippines' "up and 
coming political leaders" has pleased some of the 
senators listed in a May 10 report filed by political 
officer Andrew MacLearn. 
Senators Manuel "Mar" Roxas II, Richard Gordon and 
Ralph Recto admitted to being somehow flattered by the 
positive assessment in the report.  But they quickly 
added that they did not give much thought to how the 
Americans had been sizing them up. 
Senator Jinggoy Estrada, son of ousted President Joseph 
Estrada, responded with a hearty laugh to the 
assessment that he and his half-brother, San Juan Mayor 
Joseph Victor "JV" Ejercito, could make a run for the 
presidency on account of their father's enduring 
popularity.  "It's not for me but for the Filipinos to 
decide," said an apparently tickled Jinggoy. "All 
presidents believe it's destiny."  At any rate, he 
said, it was also "too early to decide" whether he 
would seek reelection or run for a higher office.  "Of 
course I'm happy that despite my father being in jail 
for four years, his popularity has not waned and has 
even improved," he said. 
 
Roxas made a joking reply when asked about the 
assessment that he was "well-placed" for the 2010 
presidential race based on his high name recall, his 
wealth and other factors, including his girlfriend, 
"fashionable media star" Korina Sanchez.  "Thank you," 
he said. "Now maybe they will approve my visa 
recommendations."  The former congressman and trade 
secretary also said running for president in 2010 was 
 
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"still too far [to think about]." 
 
Gordon, a neophyte senator, liked being assessed as 
someone who "[got] things done" and who was "not afraid 
to get his hands dirty.  I feel good about that in the 
sense that it justifies my family," said Gordon, a 
former Olongapo City mayor, first chair of the Subic 
Bay Metropolitan Authority after the pullout of the US 
military bases, and ex-tourism secretary.  But he said 
this accolade and the numerous awards he had received 
as a public official were fleeting.  "It's also good to 
be patted on the back once in a while, but what is 
important is you work hard," he said.  Gordon said it 
was unfair for him to be described merely as pro-US 
bases, or as an "American boy."  "I am not afraid of 
anyone, even Gloria (President Macapagal-Arroyo)," he 
said. "I have an American name and I'm proud of it, but 
[the Americans] know I can also tell them off."  Gordon 
said he had yet to make up his mind on whether to seek 
reelection or a higher office.  "But I'm humbled by the 
fact that money is a problem," he said. 
 
Picking brains:  Recto, another neophyte senator, was 
listed as a rising leader who was "driven and 
charismatic" and had a potent weapon in the person of 
his wife, popular actress and Lipa City Mayor Vilma 
Santos.  "That's flattering, but flattery aside, will I 
give it much thought?" Recto said.  He said some US 
Embassy officials visited him at his office a number of 
times to discuss mostly economic and tax matters.  But 
he said he also questioned them on many issues: "They 
pick [my] brains and I pick their brains."  Recto said 
he was also still undecided about seeking reelection in 
2007. "I'm afraid of the cost," he said. 
 
Shrugging it off:  Senator Manuel Villar, described as 
"paint[ing] himself as an independent thinker" whose 
"nationalist posturing" could pit him against certain 
US interests, shrugged off the report and said he was 
"not saddened" by it.  He said he considered it "a 
great honor" to be a nationalist.  He also professed 
disdain at what the Americans said about him: "Hindi ko 
pinag-iiintindi yang mga Amerikano."  Villar, president 
of the Nacionalista Party, said he had spoken with some 
US officials on certain occasions but was not agog over 
their visits to his office during busy days. 
 
The senator once had an unpleasant experience with a 
Chinese ambassador, whom he threw out of his office for 
lecturing him on the disputed Spratly Islands.  A savvy 
businessman and politician, Villar is also considered 
presidential timber.  He and his wife, Las Pias City 
Representative Cynthia Villar, are owners of a real 
estate empire and are the wealthiest couple in 
Congress. 
 
END TEXT 
 
JOHNSON