US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI3896

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 003896 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC 
BARBORIAK 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: NORTH KOREA, U.S. ARMS SALES 
TO TAIWAN 
 
 
1. Summary: Major Chinese-language Taipei dailies 
focused their coverage September 21 on Premier Frank 
Hsieh's administrative report before the Legislative 
Yuan and his argument with KMT Legislator and former 
Kaohsiung Mayor Wu over the city's mass rapid transit 
system; a scandal concerning a Taipei City Government 
official who allegedly was having an affair with his 
secretary; President Chen's extended stopover in 
 
SIPDIS 
Alaska; and U.S. Deputy Under Secretary of Defense 
Richard Lawless' statement (delivered by U.S. Defense 
Security Cooperation Agency's Security Cooperation 
Operations Principal Director Edward Ross at the 2005 
U.S.-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference Monday) 
concerning Taiwan's blocked arms procurement bill.  The 
pro-independence "Liberty Times," Taiwan's biggest 
daily, ran a banner headline on its front page on 
Lawless' statement that read: "U.S. official warns that 
the United States has no obligation to defend Taiwan." 
All the other Chinese-language newspapers also carried 
news stories in their inside page on Lawless' 
statement, Taiwan legislators' reactions to his 
statement, and the pan-Blue alliance's successful 
blocking of the U.S. arms procurement bill in the 
Legislative Yuan for the 29th time. 
 
2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an opinion 
piece in the centrist "China Times" and an editorial in 
the pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" both discussed the 
agreements reached at the Six-Party Talks Monday.  The 
opinion piece by Taiwan Think Tank's Foreign Policy 
Studies Director Lai I-chug described the talks as 
Beijing and Pyongyang joining hands to thwart the 
United States' diplomatic efforts in the Asia-Pacific 
area.  The editorial urged Taiwan to pay attention to 
China's increasingly important role in the talks and 
its attempt to crush Taiwan.  An editorial in the 
limited-circulation, conservative, pro-unification, 
English-language "China Post," however, raised the 
question of whether the method of bringing in outside 
parties to resolve the nuclear problem on the Korean 
Peninsula can be used to resolve the Taiwan issue.  In 
terms of Lawless' statement and the U.S. arms 
procurement bill, Washington correspondent Nadia Tao 
said in a new analysis in the "Liberty Times" that what 
Taiwan needs to be concerned about is its loss of 
minimum deterrence capabilities and the respect of the 
island's American friends.   End summary. 
 
1. North Korea 
 
A) "Beijing, Pyongyang Working Together to Thwart the 
United States" 
 
Lai I-chug, Foreign Policy Studies Director of the 
Taiwan Think Tank, commented in an opinion piece in the 
centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 
400,000] (9/21): 
 
"The fourth round of the Six-Party Talks reached a 
consensus on `agreements on some principles' seven days 
after they resumed meeting.  But judged from the 
contents of these agreements, the United States is the 
biggest loser while China and North Korea have both 
attained major achievements.  It would be appropriate 
to say that both China and North Korea have joined 
hands to thwart the United States' diplomatic efforts 
in the Asia-Pacific area severely. . 
 
"In fact, when Washington got defeated in the fourth 
round of `the talks over the Korean Peninsula's nuclear 
program,' it also missed the best timing to handle the 
nuclear weapons of North Korea.  In the `agreements of 
principles,' the parties involved agreed to leave the 
nuclear weapon issue unresolved until future talks. 
They simply procrastinated the problem and sat idly for 
it to brew and heat up.  When Washington signed this 
muddle-worded agreement, it even boasted unabashedly by 
calling it a major breakthrough.  Washington's attitude 
was like telling the Asian countries that the United 
States has no intention to resolve the problems in Asia- 
Pacific.  It also made Iran realize that as long as it 
really possesses nuclear weapons, with China's support 
it could easily walk out of the window of nuclear 
weapons.  Washington's `non-proliferation' credibility 
was completely destroyed by the results of the talks, 
and it would help nothing but perhaps accelerating the 
pace for a nuclear weapon race in the future. 
 
"China, which shows no interest in dealing with North 
Korea's nuclear problem, is the biggest winner in this 
round of talks.  Beijing, which was originally the one 
that suffered greatest pressure in the fourth round of 
talks, regained control of the talks by shifting the 
focus of the meetings to signing an agreement on 
principles.  It has also succeeded in keeping the talks 
go on without falling apart, thus avoiding a direct 
showdown with the United States at the United Nations. 
Moreover, it sought to restrain Japan via Pyongyang by 
hosting the talks and controlling the security agenda 
of Northeast Asia, and thereby further bogging down the 
`U.S.-Japan alliance.'  Judged from this result, 
Beijing's strategy is a real success. . 
 
"For Taiwan, the island should be alerted by the U.S. 
State Department's attitude in handling the Asia- 
Pacific affairs, as demonstrated in the way it handled 
the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula this time. 
In fact, given the current situation in the State 
Department where some of its old staffers have left but 
the new ones have yet to assume position, a very 
dangerous symptom is occurring with regard to 
Washington's management of the Asia-Pacific region. 
The fact that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice 
failed to attend the ASEAN summit has led to suspicion 
by the ASEAN nations about whether Washington really 
attaches great importance to the Asia-Pacific region. . 
Washington's defeated concessions made during this 
round of the Six-Party Talks simply to keep the talks 
go on gave people the impression that the State 
Department seems to be lacking a comprehensive 
strategic view toward the region and has no 
implementation ability at all.  ." 
 
B) "Six-Party Talks Reach a Consensus, But There Is 
Still a Long Way to Lasting Peace in Northeastern 
Asia." 
 
The pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" [circulation: 
100,000] editorialized (9/21): 
 
". Even though Taiwan is not a participant in the Six- 
Party Talks, nor is it directly involved in the 
tensions on the Korean Peninsula, the island must still 
be gravely concerned and alert about the situation 
development on the peninsula. . 
 
"We particularly need to pay more attention to the 
increasingly important role played by China in the 
multi-lateral talks that involved multiple 
organizations.  As China has gradually developed itself 
into the world's factory, attracting huge foreign 
investments, selling its goods around the whole globe, 
and accumulating numerous fortunes and resources, it 
has become an irreversible trend that China will play 
an increasingly significant role on the international 
stage.  China is also using every means it can to take 
advantage of its superiority to contain and isolate 
Taiwan.  The Beijing government has a comprehensive, 
well-planned strategy in an attempt to crush Taiwan 
from inside." 
 
C) "Can North Korea Nuclear Pact Serve as Model for 
Taiwan?" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language 
"China Post" [circulation: 30,000] editorialized 
(9/21): 
 
"If the landmark agreement on energy aid for North 
Korea's promise to abandon its nuclear-weapons programs 
- reached at the six-party talks on Tuesday in the host- 
capital Beijing - can be backed up by enforceable 
implementation plans expected o be worked out in a 
follow-up meeting in November, it will lead to the 
elimination of a major flashpoint in this part of the 
world. 
 
"If so, the world will naturally shift its attention to 
another potential tinderbox in the region: Taiwan.  But 
will it be possible that the method of bringing in 
third parties to jointly persuade North Korea into 
giving up its nuclear aspirations in the interest of 
peace and stability be used to resolve the issue of 
Taiwan? . 
 
"Such tensions [in Taiwan] are potentially explosive 
and need to be tackled at source.  Given that, 
mediation by major world powers appears to be the best 
possible approach in the absence of effective efforts 
by Taipei and Beijing to settle their contentious 
ideological differences. . 
 
"Undoubtedly, the United States is the country most 
appropriate, and most influential, to play a role in 
mediating the political differences between Taiwan and 
China.  But Washington has been reluctant to take on 
such a job, a position far different from its policy on 
North Korea. . 
 
"But this Washington policy of wanting to preserve the 
political status quo does not go far enough to 
effectively deal with the independence issue, thus 
unable to remove the fuse of tensions that have the 
potential to plunge Taiwan and the Chinese mainland 
into a war eventually. 
 
"There is a strong reason behind this U.S. policy.  A 
Taiwan remaining separate from China and without moving 
to provoke Beijing by declaring independence or writing 
a new constitution to achieve formal statehood will 
best suit Washington's strategic interests. . 
 
"Given the current cross-strait political 
circumstances, however, there seems to be little 
possibility of the two sides being drawn into a war by 
their sovereignty differences.  The main reason is that 
Beijing is becoming more flexible in promoting 
exchanges with Taiwan as long as Taipei does not go so 
far as to cross the red lines it has set in its anti- 
secession law enacted early this year. 
 
"But the newly achieved peaceful atmosphere across the 
Taiwan Strait could be disturbed by President Chen's 
new intentions to forge a security alliance with 
Washington and Tokyo, taking advantage of the two 
governments' desire to contain China's rise.  Chen's 
policy appears to have won positive responses, though 
mostly made in a low-key manner. 
 
"Whatever forms such a triangular cooperation finally 
take, it would surely give a major boost to Chen's 
position in addressing Beijing's relations, and 
encourage him to stick with his political cause.  Such 
developments would certainly worry Beijing and prompt 
it to adopt retaliatory measures. ." 
 
2. U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan 
 
A) "Halt of the [U.S.] Arms Procurements Is Eroding the 
United States' Support for Taiwan" 
 
Washington correspondent Nadia Tsao said in a news 
analysis of the pro-independence "Liberty Times" 
[circulation: 600,000] (9/21): 
 
". Since [U.S.] President George W. Bush approved to 
sell a bunch of advanced weapons to Taiwan in 2001, 
Taiwan, in the eyes of Washington, has gradually put on 
an irresponsible and immature image by continuing to 
cling tightly to the legs of the United States. 
Washington has used both the carrot and stick and has 
almost exhausted every means it can [to push for the 
arms deal]. . 
 
"Washington is both concerned and awed by Beijing's 
upgraded and expanded defense capabilities.  In 
addition to the fact that Beijing is getting more and 
more flexible in its diplomatic skills, the American 
decision-making elites, no matter whether they like 
Beijing or not, have to admit that Beijing is a 
respectable and a dreadful rival. 
 
"Taiwan is being put in an unfavorable position on the 
international stage.  What's more awful is that the 
people inside Taiwan pay almost no attention to its 
inferior position in both the military and diplomatic 
aspects. 
 
"The candid criticisms made by [U.S. Deputy Under 
Secretary of Defense Richard] Lawless and [U.S. Defense 
 
SIPDIS 
Security Cooperation Agency's Security Cooperation 
Operations Principal Director Edward] Ross sounded 
indeed like criticisms from `the U.S. emperor,' which 
were arrogant and hurt Taiwan's self-esteem.  But 
shouldn't the political parties in Taiwan ask 
themselves what have they really done for Taiwan's 
national defense since 2001? 
 
"Taiwan has absolutely no military capabilities to 
attack China.  For now, what Taiwan needs to be 
concerned about is losing its minimum deterrence 
capabilities and also the respect of our American 
friends." 
 
KEEGAN