US embassy cable - 02HARARE2354

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002354 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, EAID, ECON, ASEC, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF WINS BY-ELECTION IN INSIZA 
 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5 b/d 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
1. (C) The official media characterized Poloff's recent trip 
to the Insiza area ahead of by-elections there as "meddling". 
 Able to concentrate its resources on one province, and 
through a campaign of vote-buying with food, violence, 
intimidation, restricting the movements of MDC officials, 
theft of MDC campaign resources and denial of wrongdoing 
ZANU-PF assured its victory in Insiza.  With a famine 
looming, food was the main issue.  With WFP food distribution 
halted in Insiza, and the government's Grain Marketing Board 
(GMB) giving it out at ZANU-PF rallies the message was clear, 
vote for us, or go it alone.  End Summary. 
 
2. (U) Together with diplomats from the U.K. Sweden, and 
Spain, Poloff traveled to the Insiza area to take the 
political temperature during the October 26-27 by-election 
held for a parliamentary seat left vacant after the death of 
an MDC M.P. in August.  Poloff's trip was covered in the 
official media which reported that despite meddling by 
foreign diplomats, the election was peaceful and orderly. 
 
ZANU-PF WIN SEALED 
------------------ 
3. (C) MDC officials predicted privately that by controlling 
the pre-election period, Zanu-PF would win the election even 
though in 2000 the district elected George Ndlovu, from the 
recently formed MDC party by a margin of 7,000 votes.  That 
margin narrowed to 3,000 votes during the March 2002 
presidential election.  Reports late on October 28 were that 
ZANU-PF won the seat with 11,000 votes to MDC's 5,000.  There 
are reportedly 41,000 registered voters in Insiza. 
 
MDC SUPPORTERS DENIED FOOD 
-------------------------- 
4. (C) There have been widespread reports that the ruling 
party has distributed maize at political rallies, and that 
GMB maize is distributed to ZANU-PF cardholders only--charges 
that ZANU-PF officials have repeatedly denied.  On October 
25, Poloff attended a ZANU-PF rally in Bekezela (about 60 
kilometers southeast of the constituency capital of Filabusi) 
where at least 140 50-kg bags of GMB maize-meal, and an 
unknown number of maize seed bags were distributed after the 
ZANU-PF candidate, and Politburo member Sikhanyiso Ndlovu, 
encouraged a gathering of approximately 200 people to vote 
for ZANU-PF.  According to a GMB official present for the 
distribution, GMB had coordinated all of its recent food 
distribution in Insiza with rallies for the ZANU-PF candidate 
Andrew Langa.  MDC officials reported that on various 
occasions, including a registered MDC rally in Maholehole on 
October 23, ZANU-PF supporters disrupted MDC rallies by 
distributing maize nearby.  (Comment: These can be an 
effective campaign tactics in an area such as Insiza, which 
has been particularly hard hit by food shortages.  End 
Comment.) 
 
MDC SUPPORTERS ATTACKED 
----------------------- 
5. (C) On October 15, ZANU-PF candidate Langa shot MDC youth 
Darlington Kadengu, in the back, at a range of 6 meters while 
Kadengu was inside Filabusi Police Station making a report of 
stolen MDC resources (see below).  Kadengu was subsequently 
arrested while Langa continued to campaign freely.  (Note: 
On October 24 Poloff interviewed Kadengu who was in good 
condition and due to have the bullet removed shortly.  End 
Note.)  On October 22 in Kwatemba Police severely beat MDC 
member Roderick Mtyida while demanding Mtyida reveal the 
sources and carriers of MDC money.  On October 22, suspected 
ZANU-PF supporters fired gunshots at the MDC candidate, 
Siyabonga Ncube, as he traveled by car in the district 
capital Filabusi.  On October 20, ZANU-PF militia members 
stoned Ncube's car outside the police station in Filabusi. 
MDC leaders described the area as "dangerous" for them, and 
cautioned Poloff and his group about traveling there. 
 
MDC SUPPORTERS RESTRICTED ACCESS 
-------------------------------- 
6. (C) On October 22, police stopped MDC candidate Siyabonga 
Ncube and other MDC vehicles at a roadblock and forced them 
to acquire a police pass to enter Insiza province from the 
Officer in Charge at West Nicholson police station.  Police 
prevented the MDC Vice President, Secretary General, 
Elections Chief, Provincial Chairman, and Ncube's campaign 
manager from entering Insiza, and denied entry intermittently 
to many other MDC officials.  The independent press reported 
that 23 MDC activists were arrested in Insiza in the run-up 
to the elections on a variety of trumped-up charges.  There 
were no reports of any ZANU-PF supporters arrested. 
 
MDC ELECTION COMMAND CENTER SHUT DOWN 
------------------------------------- 
7. (U) On October 19, ZANU-PF youth attacked the MDC election 
command center in Filabusi with stones.  MDC youth 
effectively repelled the nighttime attack by shining vehicle 
headlights at the attackers, and hurling stones back.  Police 
subsequently raided the command center, and arrested many MDC 
activists.  The command center was then shut down due to 
damage and lack of personnel. 
 
MDC CAMPAIGN RESOURCES STOLEN 
---------------------------- 
8. (U) On October 15 at 11:00 PM suspected ZANU-PF supporters 
forcibly stopped an MDC car and stole 1000 MDC campaign 
T-shirts, and about ZWD$5 million (about US$5,000) to have 
been used to pay stipends for MDC polling agents.  The MDC 
members present, including Kadengu, reported the crime at the 
Filabusi police station where Kadengu was then shot by the 
ZANU-PF candidate (see above). 
 
ZANU-PF IMPORTS TEMPORARY RESIDENTS 
----------------------------------- 
9. (C) On October 25 Poloff spoke with Fundisani Jamela, a 
recent graduate of a Border Gezi youth militia training camp 
in Mount Darwin who was in Filabusi to 'bolster security' in 
the district.  Jamela reported that he was staying at the 
Pangani Vocational Training Camp in Filabusi with many other 
Border Gezi graduates who were assigned to Insiza for the 
election period.  On October 26, David Coltart, MDC shadow 
Minister of Justice and M.P. for Bulawayo South district, 
reported that many commercial farmers in the Matabeleland 
South province reported that settlers had disappeared from 
commercial farms in the past two weeks allegedly to travel to 
Insiza and vote for the ruling party.  MDC officials 
complained that once again, contrary to the Electoral Act, 
they had been denied access to voter rolls. 
 
ZANU-PF OFFICIALS DENY WRONGDOING 
AND STATE-MEDIA ACCUSE THE VICTIMS 
---------------------------------- 
10. (C) The government-controlled media reported throughout 
that preparations for, and voting in the election were 
carried out peacefully.  Even more cynically, state 
television carried police and state journalists' comments 
that the only violence in the district was carried out by 
MDC.  State media also accused the British High Commissioner 
of seeking to divert food in Insiza to the MDC, although he 
never visited the district.  Though Poloff met various 
ZANU-PF officials during the visit, including two politburo 
members and a Minister, none had any complaints about the 
elections.  In a meeting with the Electoral Supervisory 
Committee (ESC), whose members are appointed by the 
President, Poloff raised concerns that food was being used to 
induce votes for ZANU-PF, and that the MDC candidate was 
being restricted from entering the constituency.  Without 
investigating, ESC Director Douglas Nyikayaramba dismissed 
the food distribution charge saying the gathering in question 
at which the ZANU-PF candidate addressed the crowd and asked 
for their votes was "not a registered rally" and therefore 
not precluded by Zimbabwe's Electoral Act.  Nyikayaramba also 
denied that the MDC candidate was restricted from entering 
the constituency, and when presented with a copy of the pass 
issued by the West Nicholson Officer in Charge, denied that 
the pass was issued to the candidate. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
11. (C) ZANU-PF is seven votes shy of a two-thirds 
parliamentary majority required to pass a constitutional 
amendment.  Thus the Insiza by-election for a vacant MDC seat 
carried extreme importance, revealed by the fact that most 
ruling party heavyweights--including at least seven cabinet 
members--made campaign appearances.  Many observers noted 
that a by-election would be impossible for the MDC to win 
given that ZANU-PF could concentrate all of its resources on 
one district.  Even though Insiza elected an MDC M.P. in 
2000, through a comprehensive campaign of violence, 
intimidation and vote-buying ZANU-PF secured the vacant seat. 
 
12. (C) With a famine looming, food was the main campaign 
issue, and ZANU-PF's most potent weapon in its bid to win the 
Insiza parliamentary seat.  With all GMB maize distributions 
coordinated with ZANU-PF rallies, WFP food distribution 
halted in the area, and a hot wind drying an already parched 
scrubland--the message to voters was clear: vote for ZANU-PF, 
and we will feed your children; vote against, and you will go 
it alone. 
 
13. (C) State media criticism of U.S. and EU diplomats' 
presence in Insiza, notwithstanding meetings with ZANU-PF and 
ESC officials and MFA encouragement to visit Insiza, is 
likely an effort to preempt expected Western criticism of 
ZANU-PF's conduct of the elections. 
SULLIVAN