US embassy cable - 05WARSAW3427

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 003427 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PL, Polish Elections 
SUBJECT: POLISH PARLIAMENTARY RACE TIGHTENS 
 
REF: A. WARSAW 3393 
 
     B. WARSAW 3360 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Mary Curtin, 1.4b,d 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  With just days to go before September 25 
Polish parliamentary elections, latest opinion polls indicate 
a tightening race between the front-running Civic Platform 
(PO) and its likely coalition partner, the center-right Law 
and Justice (PiS).  In contrast to the inconclusive election 
results in neighboring Germany this weekend, however, there 
seems no question that these two parties will form the next 
Polish government.  Our visits to regions throughout Poland 
suggest that PO and PiS should do well even in rural areas 
and other traditional left-wing strongholds.  PO presidential 
candidate Donald Tusk is holding on to a strong lead over his 
principal rival, PiS's Lech Kaczynski, as negotiations remain 
underway to hold a televised debate between them, perhaps 
even as early as September 23 -- an encounter that could, if 
it takes place before the weekend, sway voters wavering 
between the two center-right parties. End summary. 
 
Close race between likely coalition partners 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) Latest polling data show that the race between PO and 
PiS is narrowing in the final week of the campaign, with PO's 
support in the 32-35 percent range, and PiS polling between 
27 and 30 percent.  One telephone poll conducted September 20 
even gave a slight edge to PiS, showing the party leading PO 
34 to 32 percent. The populist Self-Defense (SO) remains well 
behind at 10-12 percent, the right-wing League of Polish 
Families (LPR) at or below 10 percent and the governing SLD a 
few points below LPR. In the presidential race, Tusk is 
maintaining a double-digit lead over  Kaczynski, 44-49 
percent versus 29-30 percent.  With Cimoszewicz's withdrawal 
from the presidential race on September 14, the remaining 
center-left candidate, SdPl candidate Marek Borowski, has 
failed to pick up support from erstwhile Cimoszewicz 
supporters.  Some Embassy interlocutors suggest that many SLD 
voters will simply sit out the election. 
 
PO and PiS playing well throughout Poland 
----------------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Embassy Poloffs have fanned out over Poland in the 
past week to review the parliamentary and presidential 
campaigns in Bydgoszcz, Lodz, Lublin, and Szczecin, and found 
that support for PO and PiS appears strong in those regions 
as well, some of them traditionally "red," or favoring the 
postcommunist left.  In Lublin, long a stronghold of the 
Polish Peasants' Party (PSL), and more recently of SO and 
LPR, Polcouns heard most regional officials predict success 
this round for PO (particularly in Lublin itself) and for 
PiS.  Elzbieta Kruk, who heads the PiS list for Lublin, 
reported that her party had an aggressive strategy to seek 
votes in the rural areas, including recruiting candidates 
from farm areas and addressing agricultural issues, while 
noting that PO has focused its campaign on urban voters. 
Lublin Archbishop Jozef Zycinski and Janusz Knap, Lublin's 
editor for the national daily, "Gazeta Wyborcza," cautioned, 
however, that SO and LPR will likely do better in the region 
(and perhaps nationally) than opinion polls indicate. 
 
4. (C) In Lodz, however, both Iwona Sledzinska-Katarasinska, 
who heads the PO list, and Piotr Krzywicki, who heads the PiS 
list, told Poloff that SO has lost some of its appeal with 
rural voters because party leader Andrzej Lepper crafted SO's 
electoral lists to stack them with his well-heeled cronies 
and party financiers, leaving traditional party constituents 
in the cold.  PO and PiS expect to come in first and second 
in Lodz, Poland's second-largest city, as well. Both 
candidates pointed to high unemployment as the preeminent 
campaign issue, though PO's focus was on attracting foreign 
investment, and, with it, skilled jobs, whereas PiS merely 
offered a litany of economic woes that befell the Lodz region 
when its-once famous textile mills collapsed.  In Bydgoszcz, 
another longtime postcommunist stronghold, local officials 
were also predicting a strong PO and PiS showing.  PiS 
senatorial candidate Radek Sikorski told Poloff that "people 
who say Bydgoszcz is red haven't been out campaigning, and 
haven't seen the reaction I've been seeing." 
 
5. (SBU) Campaign officials in Szczecin, near the German 
border, equally predict a strong showing for PO and PiS, 
although the popular Economy Minister, Jacek Piechota, who is 
widely credited with saving the local shipyard, is running on 
the SLD ticket.  SLD may edge out PiS for second place in the 
city.  SO standard-bearer Lepper is running from rural 
Koszalin, outside of Szczecin, boosting his party's chances 
in the surrounding countryside.  As elsewhere, unemployment 
is the biggest issue, with unemployment rates running as high 
as 40% in regions where collective farming was widely 
practiced. 
 
6. (SBU) The PO and PiS campaigns have nearly overwhelmed 
their competitors in terms of posters, banners and street 
campaigners, particularly in the urban centers.  Despite 
having the most money to spend (in government subsidies based 
on its 2001 results), the SLD has mounted a modest effort so 
far.  LPR, for its part, has focused most of its resources 
and advertising in support of the party's parliamentary 
campaign (promoting LPR leader Roman Giertych at the expense 
of his father, presidential candidate Maciej), hoping for a 
second-place finish that will generate momentum for the elder 
Giertych's campaign.  LPR is also the only party to host 
traditional political rallies, featuring legions of fawning 
and uncritical LPR supporters.  PO and PiS repeatedly told 
poloffs that such tactics remind most Poles of Communist-era 
political gatherings, and thus fall flat with the average 
voter.  In the regions, the predominant campaign materials 
are billboards and leaflets, with few candidates marshalling 
the funds for television or radio commercials. 
 
Kaczynski attacks, Tusk parries before possible TV debate 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
7. (SBU) Down in the polls (although with Tusk's rise 
arrested for now just shy of the 50-percent mark needed to 
win in the first round), Lech Kaczynski has taken the 
offensive, attacking PO's liberal economic policies as 
socially destructive.  This line was advanced by Kaczynski's 
twin brother, party leader Jaroslaw, in a radio exchange 
September 19 with PO PM-candidate Jan Rokita, in which 
Kaczynski declared that PO's flat tax proposals would bring 
Poland toward Third World levels of income distribution 
(Rokita dismissed the charge as "complete nonsense").  For 
his part, Tusk has maintained a careful response, seeking to 
reassure voters of his presidential temperament and avoid 
being drawn into a harsh exchange that could poison the 
coalition. 
 
8. (SBU) Challenged by Lech Kaczynski to hold a nationally 
televised debate before Sunday's parliamentary vote, Tusk at 
first demurred, but then agreed to meet September 23.  Other 
parties immediately lodged equal-time complaints with the 
State Electoral Commission, however, casting into doubt 
whether the debate will be held in that one-on-one format or 
before this weekend's vote.  If it does take place this week, 
such an exchange is certain to highlight the contrasts 
between the two candidates and their parties' platforms, and 
could well prove decisive in determining which of the two 
parties will emerge in first place in the vote for 
parliament. 
Ashe