US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI3891

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003891 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W, INR/EAP. EAP/PD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, TW, Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: THE 2006 KAOHSIUNG MAYORAL RACE -- LOCAL 
SPECULATION ON CANDIDATES 
 
REF: TAIPEI 3793 
 
Classified By: AIT Acting Director David Keegan, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY.  THE SEPTEMBER 15TH ARRIVAL OF KAOHSIUNG'S 
NEW ACTING MAYOR YEH CHU-LAN, SENIOR PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR AND 
FORMER VICE-PREMIER, HAS FUELED LOCAL SPECULATION ON THE 2006 
KAOHSIUNG MAYORAL RACE. LOCAL KAOHSIUNG POLITICIANS REACTED 
TO YEH'S APPOINTMENT WITH EVERYTHING FROM SURPRISE TO OUTRAGE 
TO INDIFFERENCE TO SUPPORT.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) YEH CHU-LAN ARRIVED IN KAOHSIUNG ON THE MORNING OF 
SEPTEMBER 15, 2005, ACCOMPANIED BY HER GOOD FRIEND LY MEMBER 
GUAN BI-LING (DPP).  IN A MEETING THE SAME DAY WITH AIT/K AND 
AIT/T, GUAN SAID YEH'S APPOINTMENT WAS MADE BY PRESIDENT CHEN 
FOLLOWING A COMPROMISE WITH DPP FACTIONS.  GUAN BELIEVES YEH 
IS RIGHT FOR THE JOB BECAUSE SHE IS A SOPHISTICATED 
POLITICIAN AND FLEXIBLE ENOUGH FOR THE PEOPLE TO ACCEPT HER. 
GUAN HAD SPENT THE MORNING BEFORE HER MEETING WITH AIT 
INTRODUCING YEH AROUND TOWN TO IMPORTANT CONTACTS.  HOWEVER, 
GUAN NOTED, THE CITY COUNCIL'S VICE SPEAKER, TSAI 
SUNG-HSIUNG, A KMT SUPPORTER, HAD SLAMMED THE DOOR IN YEH'S 
FACE, REFUSING EVEN TO SPEAK TO HER, SUPPOSEDLY DUE TO 
DISPLEASURE THAT A DPP OUTSIDER HAD BEEN BROUGHT IN, WITHOUT 
ANY CONSULTATION WITH THE CITY COUNCIL, AT A DELICATE TIME TO 
DEAL WITH, AND LIKELY DOWNPLAY, ISSUES OF CORRUPTION. 
ALTHOUGH SEVERAL FORMER CHEN CHI-MAI APPOINTEES HAD TENDERED 
THEIR RESIGNATIONS, GUAN TOLD AIT THAT YEH HAD ASKED VICE 
MAYOR CHENG WEN-LUNG TO STAY ON.  CHENG HAD WORKED PREVIOUSLY 
WITH YEH WHEN SHE SERVED AS MINISTER OF TRANSPORTATION AND 
COMMUNICATIONS. 
 
3.  (C) GUAN BI-LING NOTED THAT, ALTHOUGH YEH IS NOT EXPECTED 
TO RUN FOR KAOHSIUNG MAYOR IN 2006, WITH A FULL YEAR BEFORE 
THE ELECTION, THERE IS NO TELLING WHAT MAY HAPPEN.  GUAN 
PRAISED HER OWN PARTY'S "MATURE SYSTEM" THAT DECIDES UPON 
NOMINEES, BUT SAID THAT A PRIMARY MAY BE NEEDED IF A 
COMPROMISE CANNOT BE REACHED.  WITH CHEN CHI-MAI'S 
RESIGNATION, GUAN BELIEVES ALL POSSIBLE CANDIDATES, INCLUDING 
CHEN CHI-MAI, CHEN CHU, AND YEH CHU-LAN ARE NOW ON A LEVEL 
PLAYING FIELD.  HOWEVER, SHE BELIEVES THE THAI LABOR RIOT 
HURT CHEN CHI-MAI TO THE DEGREE THAT CHEN CHU IS NOW IN A 
MORE FAVORABLE POSITION THAN THE PREVIOUS ACTING MAYOR TO 
SECURE THE MAYORAL NOMINATION. 
 
4.  (C) WHEN ASKED IF SHE HERSELF WOULD RUN FOR MAYOR, GUAN 
NOTED THAT SHE IS CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH PREMIER HSIEH 
CHANG-TING.  IF SHE WERE TO RUN FOR MAYOR, IT WOULD CAUSE 
DISSATISFACTION AMONG PAN-GREEN FACTIONS AND POSSIBLY AFFECT 
HSIEH AS HE SEEKS SUPPORT FOR THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL BID. 
GUAN, A FORMER ACADEMIC JUST NEWLY ELECTED TO THE LY IN 
2004, SEES HERSELF AS WOEFULLY SHY OF THE GRASSROOTS SUPPORT 
NEEDED TO RUN A SUCCESSFUL CAMPAIGN FOR KAOHSIUNG MAYOR. 
ALSO, SHE BELIEVES THAT THE THAI LABOR RIOTS SIGNIFICANTLY 
AFFECTED GRASSROOTS SUPPORT FOR HSIEH.  SINCE THE DPP DID NOT 
COME TOGETHER TO DEFEND ITSELF OR ITS ADMINISTRATION, 
SUSPICIONS OF CORRUPTION KEPT GROWING.  SHE BELIEVES THAT IF 
DPP CHAIRMAN SU TSENG-CHANG AND OTHER DPP HEAVYWEIGHTS HAD 
DEFENDED HSIEH IN PUBLIC THE POLITICAL WAVES WOULDN'T HAVE 
EXTENDED SO FAR OR CAUSED SO MUCH DAMAGE.  IN FACT, SHE SAYS 
THAT ALTHOUGH SHE KNOWS HSIEH WILL BE COMPLETELY EXONERATED 
FROM ANY WRONG DOING, SHE STILL IS CONCERNED ABOUT THE 
POLITICAL IMPACT OF A DRAWN OUT INVESTIGATION. 
 
5.  (C) IN A MEETING THE SAME DAY, KMT LY MEMBER LEE FU-SHING 
REFUSED TO EXPRESS ANY OPINION ABOUT YEH'S APPOINTMENT, 
SAYING THAT IT WAS A DPP MATTER.  LEE HAS LITTLE CONFIDENCE 
THAT THE INVESTIGATION INTO THE THAI LABOR RIOTS WILL GO 
DEEPLY INTO THE CORRUPTION THAT HE SAID UNDOUBTEDLY EXISTS. 
HOWEVER, LEE ADMITTED THAT THE POLITICAL FALL OUT FROM THE 
RIOTS (SEE REFTEL) WILL AFFECT DPP'S SUPPORT IN THE SOUTH. 
LEE BELIEVES THAT DPP CHAIRMAN SU TSENG-CHANG IS PURPOSEFULLY 
SILENT ON THE MATTER AND IS PLEASED THE KMT IS VIGOROUSLY 
ATTACKING HSIEH CHANG-TING, WHO WAS THE MAYOR OF KAOHSIUNG 
AND HAD BEEN IN CHARGE OF THE RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT DURING 
HIS TENURE. 
 
6.  (C) ALTHOUGH LEE WOULD NOT SPECULATE ON THE NEXT KMT 
MAYORAL CANDIDATE, HE EXPRESSED HIS OWN INTEREST IN RUNNING 
FOR THE OFFICE.  HE NOTED THAT HE PAID SPECIAL ATTENTION TO 
THE URBAN PLANNING ASPECT OF HIS 1995 INTERNATIONAL VISITOR 
TRIP TO THE U.S. AND HAS BEEN THINKING FOR YEARS ABOUT THE 
BEST WAY TO DEVELOP KAOHSIUNG CITY.  WITH THE RECENT SHAKE-UP 
AT CITY HALL, LEE IS WATCHING THE SITUATION UNTIL EARLY NEXT 
YEAR WHEN HE WILL DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO SEEK THE KMT 
NOMINATION FOR MAYOR.  AS A STRONG MA YING-JEOU SUPPORTER 
(AND, ACCORDING TO LEE, THE ONLY OPEN SUPPORTER AMONG THE 
KMT'S 83 SOUTHERN LEGISLATORS), LEE STRONGLY BELIEVES THE 
PEOPLE IN KAOHSIUNG ARE LOOKING FOR REFORM AND ARE HOPING MA 
WILL LEAD TAIWAN TO A BETTER FUTURE.  HE SAID THAT HE HIMSELF 
AND OTHER NATIVE (BEN-TU) PEOPLE OF TAIWAN WILL STAND WITH MA 
IN THE NEXT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  HE ANTICIPATES MA WILL 
PICK A "BEN-TU" RUNNING MATE, SUCH AS WU DEN-YIH, KMT LY 
MEMBER FROM NAN-TOU COUNTY AND FORMER KAOHSIUNG MAYOR, TO 
HELP SOLVE MA'S PROBLEM OF BEING A "WAI-SHENG" PERSON. 
 
7.  (C) THE DPP KAOHSIUNG COUNTY MAGISTRATE YANG CHIU-HSING 
ADMITTED COMPLETE SURPRISE THAT YEH CHU-LAN WAS SELECTED TO 
REPLACE FORMER ACTING MAYOR CHEN CHI-MAI.  HOWEVER, YANG 
PRAISED YEH AS A GOOD AND COMPETENT PERSON WHOSE PRESTIGE 
FROM FORMER APPOINTMENTS WOULD SERVE HER WELL IN THE SOUTH. 
YANG SERIOUSLY DOUBTS THAT YEH WILL RUN FOR MAYOR AS HE 
ANTICIPATES SHE IS A MORE LIKELY CONTENDER FOR THE DPP 
VICE-PRESIDENTIAL RACE.  THE MAGISTRATE ALSO SEES LITTLE 
LIKELIHOOD OF CHEN CHI-MAI RUNNING FOR MAYOR IN THE 2006 
RACE.  YANG THINKS TOO MANY QUESTIONS WOULD ARISE AS TO WHY 
CHEN STEPPED DOWN IF HIS INTENTION WAS JUST TO RUN AGAIN. 
ALSO, LOGISTICALLY, YANG NOTED THAT CHEN CHI-MAI WOULD HAVE 
TO THROW HIS HAT IN THE RACE NO LATER THAN APRIL 2006 AND 
THAT TRYING TO BUILD SUPPORT IN SUCH A SHORT TIME, AND 
ESPECIALLY AFTER JUST RESIGNING, MIGHT BE PROBLEMS TOO HARD 
TO OVERCOME. 
 
8.  (C) COMMENT:  YEH CHU-LAN HAS YET TO BE INSTALLED 
OFFICIALLY AS KAOHSIUNG'S MAYOR, ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO DOUBT 
THAT ALL THAT STANDS BETWEEN HER AND OFFICIAL MEETINGS 
BEGINING MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, IS MERELY A MATTER OF 
FORMALITIES.  AIT/K WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW DEVELOPMENTS AS 
THE NEW ACTING MAYOR BEGINS HER TERM OF OFFICE FACING LOCAL 
POLITICIANS WHO HAVE NOT PROVED ON THE WHOLE TO BE A 
WELCOMING GROUP AND AS THE CORRUPTION ISSUE CONTINUES TO LOOM 
LARGE IN BOTH THE PAN-BLUE AND PAN-GREEN CAMPS FOLLOWING THE 
THAI LABOR RIOTS.  END COMMENT. 
 
KEEGAN 
KEEGAN