US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV5794

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 TEL AVIV 005794 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEFENSE FOR OSD (JAMES ANDERSON) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PINR, MARR, MASS, PARM, KPAL, PGOV, IS, EG, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, GOI EXTERNAL, GOI INTERNAL, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS 
SUBJECT: NEA DAS DIBBLE'S 9/20 MEETING WITH ISRAELI MOD'S 
AMOS GILAD FOCUSES ON GAZA, POST-DISENGAGEMENT 
 
REF: USDAO TEL AVIV 210353Z SEP 05 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Norm Olsen.  Reasons: 1.4 (b, d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (S) Israeli MOD Political-Military Affairs Bureau Chief 
Amos Gilad told NEA DAS Elizabeth Dibble September 19 that 
the Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) is a pillar of 
the recently-concluded Egypt-Israel agreement on the 
Egypt-Gaza border and performs a vital role monitoring 
changes along the Egypt-Gaza border.  Gilad urged that the 
USG do nothing to diminish the MFO's capabilities or undercut 
its role in the region.  On Egypt, Gilad said Israel wants to 
develop a strategic dialogue that would serve as the basis 
for further developing relations, including cultural and 
military ties.  He cited both the future of Gaza and Egyptian 
military and terrorist activities in the Sinai as reasons why 
such a dialogue is necessary.  Gilad said Egypt's disbelief 
about how quickly the IDF would evacuate Philadelphi ensured 
that the Egyptians were not prepared when the IDF withdrew. 
He described the situation along the Egypt-Gaza border as 
"anarchy" and alleged that people and weapons -- including 
RPGs and Strela missiles -- have crossed the border into 
Gaza.  (NOTE:  IDF and security officials briefing the 
Knesset September 21 claimed that no such weaponry was 
smuggled into the Gaza Strip after Israel's withdrawal.  END 
NOTE.)  Gilad said that as long as the situation in the 
Philadelphi corridor is unresolved, it will affect the entire 
Egypt-Israel relationship, and impede resolution of the Rafah 
passage issue.  Gilad described PA Civil Affairs Minister 
Dahlan as physically sick and emotionally run down, citing as 
evidence Dahlan's recent hospitalization in Israel -- and 
subsequent flight to the Czech Republic. 
 
2. (C) Summary Continued:  Gilad expressed hope that the 
U.S.-Israel Strategic Dialogue would be renewed soon because 
upcoming Palestinian general and municipal elections need to 
be discussed "in-depth" before they take place -- especially 
as their results could jeopardize U.S. democratization goals 
in the region.  Gilad warned that the January 2006 
Palestinian elections will be fateful as they could result in 
Hamas gaining political power and prestige in Gaza and the 
West Bank.  Gilad portrayed PA President Mahmoud Abbas as the 
Palestinian people's only hope, but said he is besieged by 
his own ministers and powerless against Hamas.  He suggested 
that the murder of Moussa Arafat made a big impression on the 
PA President, and has made him wary of PA Minister Nasir 
Yusif, who the President thinks might take action against 
him.  Gilad said he believes Iran is determined to develop 
its own nuclear bomb and is undeterred by the U.S., seeing it 
as powerless over Iran.  Gilad assessed Syrian President 
Al-Asad as "in trouble," and said he believes the Syrians 
have been lobbying France to keep the French out of alleged 
"conspiracies" against the Syrian President.  DAS Dibble 
praised Israel for showing restraint along its northern 
border in response to Syrian-backed provocations, and urged 
that Israel continue that policy.  Gilad characterized 
Egypt's recent elections as a "choice between stability and 
democracy," and suggested that the voters were forced to turn 
out.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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Gilad: MFO Important -- Pillar of Egypt-Israel Agreement 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
3. (C) Gilad stressed that the MFO is a pillar of the 
Egypt-Israel agreement on the Egypt-Gaza border, and urged 
that the U.S. do nothing to diminish its capabilities or 
undercut its role in the region.  Its role in the agreement, 
Gilad explained, was a prize for which the Israelis fought 
hard with the Egyptians.  Gilad said Egyptian DefMin Tantawi 
had told him Egypt was committed to ensuring the MFO had no 
place in the agreement, and so was frustrated when it was 
included.  Gilad explained that the MFO is not there to 
monitor terror, but to monitor changes along the border in 
accordance with very detailed procedures spelled out in the 
agreement.  He said he told the Egyptians that the MFO's role 
is "vital."  Gilad praised the Egypt-Israel agreement for its 
comprehensiveness and detail.  He noted that DefMin Mofaz had 
highlighted its significance numerous times before the 
Cabinet and the Knesset, and that Mofaz will convey that same 
view during his upcoming visit to Washington. 
 
4. (S) Gilad said both Israel and Egypt have technically 
violated the Border Guards agreement since its signature, but 
know about each others' violations, and have reached 
understandings about them.  As violations, he cited Egypt's 
failure to prevent Palestinians from crossing the Gaza-Egypt 
border, Israel's deployment of tanks along the Philadelphi 
corridor.  Gilad said that Israel could not discuss some of 
Egypt's violations with Egypt as this would reveal Israeli 
sources and methods.  Now, he said, Egypt needs to close 
Philadelphi.  He noted that Likud "rebel" MK Yuval Steinitz 
had recently asked him to report on the situation in Gaza. 
Gilad noted that he has kept Steinitz informed of the 
Israel-Egypt agreement from the beginning:  "I like 
Steinitz's criticism.  It helped Israel in its bargaining 
position with the Egyptians." 
 
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Wanted: Strategic Dialogue with the Egyptians 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
5. (S) Gilad claimed that the Egyptians are preparing 
operational plans, infrastructure and their Second and Third 
Army Corps in the Sinai to "take over the Sinai whenever they 
decide to do so."  He did not express alarm and said, "We do 
not believe the Egyptians are planning to attack us," but he 
wanted to make it clear that Egypt's military capabilities 
are of concern.  Gilad stressed that Israel does not view the 
Egyptian army as a "lousy" one, observing that "even a lousy 
army can be a dangerous one.  They have F-16s and American 
weapons.  They are training all the time.  In their war 
games, Israel is always identified as the enemy."  Gilad said 
he had discussed this with Egyptian Intelligence Chief Omar 
Suleiman to no avail. 
 
6. (S) Gilad said there is now more significant common ground 
between Israel and Egypt, and that Egypt needs to develop 
further all its relations with Israel -- including cultural 
relations and ties between their militaries.  He cited as 
areas of common interest, preventing a "Hamas-stan" and 
building a "real Palestinian Authority."  He said the 
challenges Israel faces in Gaza require cooperation with the 
Egyptians -- whom, he alleged, "control" Hamas by bypassing 
the Palestinian Authority, and have released Hamas terrorists 
into the Sinai.  Gilad said Egypt's reaction to terrorism is 
unacceptable, and that Israel will complain to the Egyptians 
again.  He expressed gratitude for the USG's help to date in 
delivering the same message to the Egyptians. 
 
7. (S) Based on the "good meetings" Gilad and others have had 
with the Egyptians, Gilad said that Israel wants to establish 
a bilateral, strategic dialogue with Egypt.  It would the 
first of its kind and would serve as a basis for a 
"partnership of future, strategic cooperation."  Gilad said 
the Egyptians also want to establish a dialogue, but do not 
want to send high-level officials on visits to Israel.  Gilad 
recalled that he had invited Egyptian DefMin Tantawi and the 
Egyptian Air Force commander "a thousand times," but they 
always demurred.  Gilad noted that he had recently met with 
DefMin Tantawi for one hour, and feels that they have a 
chemistry that works.  Gilad said he will travel to Cairo the 
week of September 26:  "The strategic relationship is 
important, but we cannot have nothing to show for it." 
 
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Describes Philadelphi as a Catastrophe 
-------------------------------------- 
 
8. (S) Gilad said that what is happening along the 
Philadelphi corridor is a catastrophe that is strengthening 
Israeli opposition to the Israel-Egypt agreement -- embodied 
by Likud "rebel" Yuval Steinitz in the Knesset -- and 
creating a negative atmosphere.  Defending the agreement as 
"very good, with no gray areas," Gilad said the only 
explanation for the "anarchy" along Philadelphi is that the 
Egyptians did not believe the IDF would evacuate the corridor 
so quickly, in spite of the fact that they had been informed 
numerous times of the date when the IDF would leave.  He also 
attributed the situation to the Egyptians' unwillingness to 
shoot Palestinians to restore order.  Gilad said he has been 
talking to Egyptian Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman or his 
deputy at least twice daily, and that he keeps receiving 
assurances -- which he does not believe -- that the Egyptians 
are stopping people from crossing the Gaza-Egypt border. 
Gilad said the Egyptians also pressed the Palestinian 
Authority and Hamas not to destroy the security fence, but 
apparently to no avail.  Gilad said that the Egyptians have 
urged PA President Mahmoud Abbas to deploy more security 
forces along Philadelphi, and have also pressed Hamas to 
deploy.  The Egyptians are concerned with the human traffic 
across the Egypt-Gaza border as it violates Egypt's 
sovereignty.  Hamas, Gilad said, respects the Egyptians, and 
so it accedes to their pressure and does not challenge it. 
Gilad said that Dahlan told him that 90,000 Palestinians have 
crossed the border since it opened.  Gilad said that 
Palestinians have been arriving in Port Said and Alexandria, 
making the Egyptians look weak at home and in the Sinai.  He 
asserted that only the civil police -- not the Egyptian army 
and Border Guards -- are dealing with the problem.  Gilad 
noted that the Egyptians want to set up training camps for 
the Palestinian security forces.  He said he hopes the 
Jordanians will "wake up" and do their part to train 
Palestinian security forces, and assessed the Jordanians as 
very professional in this field. 
 
9. (S) Gilad said the smuggling activity across the 
Egypt-Gaza border was terrible, and that "thousands of 
rifles, rockets, rocket propelled grenades, and maybe even 
Strela missiles" had been smuggled into the Gaza Strip. 
(NOTE:  IDF and security officials briefing the Knesset 
September 21 claimed that no such weaponry was smuggled into 
the Gaza Strip after Israel's withdrawal.  END NOTE.)  "Our 
own information is excellent," he insisted.  The smuggling 
has declined since the first days after Israeli withdrawal, a 
trend he attributed to a decrease in the numbers of 
Palestinians crossing the Gaza-Egypt border. 
 
10. (S) Gilad said the unresolved situation along the 
Philadelphi corridor will affect the "whole relationship" 
between Egypt and Israel, and that Israel is being very 
patient, but is frustrated.  Responding to DAS Dibble's 
question about the situation in Gaza, Gilad said that the 
Palestinians are trying harder to control Philadelphi because 
of Egyptian pressure.  "The anarchy continues, however." 
Gilad said that the average Palestinian citizen does not know 
who is in charge at Philadelphi, while Hamas is trying to 
show that it is running the border.  In response to the 
situation, Gilad said Israel has tightened security along the 
passages between Gaza and Israel -- a measure that is hurting 
the Palestinians economically.  He expressed hope that a 
solution would be found to Philadelphi because the border 
agreement must be respected.  As a result of the "anarchy" 
that prevails at Philadelphi, Gilad said, Israeli DefMin 
Mofaz is asking how he, as DefMin, can contemplate an 
agreement on the Rafah border crossing when the Palestinians 
and Egyptians have allowed such a situation to develop. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
Dahlan's Emotional and Mental Health Deteriorating 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
11. (S) Gilad described PA Civil Affairs Minister Muhammad 
Dahlan as a man whose emotional and mental health were 
deteriorating to the point that he "collapsed" in Gilad's 
hands when the latter met him the evening of September 16. 
Gilad described the meeting as follows:  "Dahlan was there 
with his daughter-in-law.  I told him, 'You are sick.'  He 
started shouting and screaming at me.  He shouted for hours. 
We called a doctor and suggested he go to a hospital.  He 
refused and said he had to speak to thousands of Palestinians 
on September 17.  He then collapsed on his bed.  He looked 
ghostly white and appeared to be suffering terribly.  I said, 
'If you leave this room, you will either be martyred, or you 
will end up paralyzed.'  He broke down in my arms and said he 
would go the hospital.  We arranged a VIP room for him at a 
hospital in Tel Aviv and took him there in an ambulance with 
a security and police escort.  The following day (September 
17) the doctors said he had suffered a slipped disc. 
Jordanian King Abdullah sent a helicopter which arrived in a 
half-hour and took Dahlan to Amman.  Afterwards, I met him on 
the Jordanian side of the Dead Sea.  He was vicious, which 
means he had recovered.  He then went to Karlovy Vary in the 
Czech Republic for two weeks to recover.  We did everything 
for him while he was in Israel.  We brought him his religious 
wife.  (He's scared of her.)  We told him that all he needed 
would be paid for by the GOI."  Noting that Dahlan's 
hospitalization had made the Israeli press, Gilad stressed 
that the Israeli side did not leak the matter, as -- in 
Gilad's view -- the Palestinians would have used the 
information to humiliate and hurt Dahlan.  Gilad said he 
would never break his word to Dahlan, despite the latter 
being "extremist and unhelpful on the Rafah issue."  Calling 
Dahlan "destructive," Gilad said the PA minister was behind 
the "elimination" of PA Interior Minister Nasir Yusif, and 
that Yusif's enemies would "get rid of Yusif -- sooner or 
later."  Gilad said that Dahlan told him that the 
Palestinians will never accept Israel's proposals on the 
Rafah passage and other issues.  That position, he said, 
serves Dahlan as it allows him to be seen as the "tough guy." 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
Gilad Hopes Strategic Dialogue with U.S. Will be Renewed 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
12. (C) Gilad said there are many items to be discussed in 
the U.S.-Israel Strategic Dialogue, and that he hopes it will 
be renewed soon.  He said Israel and the U.S. need to 
exchange views in an in-depth way before Palestinian 
legislative and municipal elections.  He expressed concern 
that the elections could be disastrous, "even to America's 
policy of democratization," and might result in the Egyptians 
and other Arabs criticizing the U.S. freedom agenda in the 
region. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Gilad: "January 25 Will be a Fateful Day" 
----------------------------------------- 
 
13. (S) Gilad said that all indicators suggest that January 
25, 2006 -- the date of Palestinian elections -- will be a 
"fateful day" for the Palestinians and the region, as the 
results will resonate beyond the Palestinian Authority.  He 
said he is sure that elections will be free, but that they 
will not result in democracy because PA President Mahmoud 
Abbas has already publicly declared that he will never 
dismantle the terrorist infrastructure.  Gilad said that two 
competing groups want to replace the Palestinian Authority. 
He said the first group, Hamas, is willing to take its time: 
"First they will win 40 percent of the votes in the 
elections.  This will give them a good showing, but will not 
saddle them with responsibility.  They will offer anything to 
win votes, and then they will take over the municipalities. 
They have a plan to take over Nablus and all the jobs it will 
offer.  This will give them incredible power.  They will then 
prepare the Palestinian street so that their frustration will 
erupt."  Gilad admitted that he was not sure whether the GOI 
has given enough thought to the Palestinian elections and 
their significance.  "We are doomed if Hamas becomes a real 
power and part of political life," especially as, in his 
words, the Palestinian Authority continues to be a "helpless 
and poor performer." 
 
14. (S) Gilad said that only PA President Abbas enjoys 
prestige, as he embodies hope in Gaza.  At the same time, 
Abbas is "alone," opposed by Palestinian PM Ahmad Quraya', 
and frightened by the recent murder of Moussa Arafat:  "Abu 
Mazen was not happy with the way Moussa Arafat was killed. 
Over 100 people and 20 vehicles took part.  Arafat's house is 
not far from Abu Mazen's.  Arafat was slaughtered, and then 
his body was thrown into the garbage.  It shook up Abu Mazen. 
 He told Nasir Yusif, 'I trust you will not do anything." 
Gilad called Abbas "clever," and suggested he is claiming 
credit for the calm situation in Gaza, while really ceding 
control to Hamas.  "He thinks we do not know what he is 
doing, but we know.  Hamas is behind the current calm in 
Gaza, not Abu Mazen.  Hamas has decided this course of action 
with the Egyptians." 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Gilad on Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and Egypt 
---------------------------------------- 
 
15. (C) Gilad said that he believes Iran is determined to 
develop a nuclear bomb.  He said Iran cannot be pressured 
through sanctions on oil, and that Iran does not feel that 
the U.S. has any leverage over it.  Gilad said the Iranians 
are lobbying the Germans to get them to ease their pressure 
on Iran. 
 
16. (C) On Syria, Gilad said that Syrian President Bashar 
Al-Asad appears to be in trouble.  Gilad said he despises 
Asad, but admitted that Syria might be worse without him: 
"You could have the Sunnis in Damascus, combined with Sunni 
forces in Iraq."  Gilad said he believes the Syrians in Paris 
have been lobbying the French not to take part in 
"conspiracies" against Asad.  Gilad considered the effort 
futile, as the Syrians "have no cards to play."  Gilad said 
Suleiman told him Bashar is "stupid and tone deaf -- he 
cannot read the signals, and sticks to terror as a shield." 
DAS Dibble said the USG would not be surprised if Asad urges 
Hizballah to provoke the Israelis along Israel's northern 
border, but counseled against any Israeli response should a 
provocation occur. 
 
17. (C) Gilad noted that Israel had recently returned the 
bodies of two Hizballah terrorists to Lebanon once the GOL 
had asked for them.  The GOL, Gilad said, requested their 
return, and then boasted to Hizballah of their success when 
the bodies were turned over.  Gilad expressed concern that 
Hizballah is trying to kidnap IDF soldiers. 
 
18. (C) Gilad termed the elections in Afghanistan a "great 
success," and characterized Lebanon's elections as a 
"pleasant surprise."  He said the results of Egypt's 
elections -- including 25 percent voter turnout -- reflected 
the voters' view that the choice was between stability and 
democracy.  "The voters," he said, "were forced to turn out." 
 
19. (U) This cable was not cleared by DAS Dibble. 
 
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