US embassy cable - 05CAIRO7325

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 007325 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC STAFF FOR POUNDS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EG, Ayman Nour 
SUBJECT: EGYPT: OPPOSITION LEADER NOUR WARDS OFF INTERNAL 
PARTY CHALLENGE BUT MORE CLOUDS LOOM 
 
REF: A. CAIRO 5084 
 
     B. CAIRO 4981 
     C. CAIRO 4917 
 
Classified by ECPO Minister Counselor Michael Corbin for 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) Barely a week after Ayman Nour placed second in the 
presidential race, with a surprising and impressive 500,000 
votes, an internal crisis in his Ghad (Tomorrow) Party raised 
the prospect that his party might not survive to compete in 
the November parliamentary elections.  An attempted putsch 
against Nour's leadership was decisively put down on 
September 19, when the party's higher committee expelled 
several senior party leaders.  Meanwhile, Nour's politicized 
trial on criminal forgery charges is set to resume on 
September 25.  Nour's political future is clouded by the 
trial, and there remains the possibility that the GOE could 
seize on "leadership disputes" within the Ghad as an excuse 
to suspend its license.  End summary. 
 
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Nour's Leadership Challenged from Within 
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2. (C) Many Cairo political observers have argued, 
convincingly, that Ayman Nour was "the big winner" of the 
September 7 presidential election.  Though he placed a 
distant second to President Mubarak, his garnering of 500,000 
votes, according to official figures -- (Ghad party contacts 
claim he actually got more) -- he soundly displaced the claim 
of No'man Gom'a's Wafd Party to leadership of the opposition. 
 Yet just over a week after Nour's strong electoral showing, 
he was faced with a crisis that threatened to destroy his 
institutional base. 
 
3. (SBU) Nour's leadership of the Ghad was challenged by 
senior party official Mursi al-Sheikh, with the support of 
Nour's deputy party chair Musa Musa and senior party member 
Ragab Hilal Hemeida.   On September 17, Al-Sheikh filed suit 
against Nour in an administrative court, alleging that Nour's 
call for an extraordinary general conference of the party on 
September 23 was in violation of party by-laws. 
 
4. (C) Al-Sheikh added insult to injury by publicly accusing 
Nour of mismanaging the party.  Musa, Nour's deputy, openly 
sided with Al-Sheikh, alleging that Nour was being 
manipulated by an inner circle of advisors to act against his 
own and the party's interests.  It remained unclear to 
observers what grave mistakes Nour was supposedly making, as 
Musa only cited alleged procedural violations of party 
by-laws in his charge. 
 
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Serious Implications 
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5. (C) Although on the surface Musa's criticism, and even 
Al-Sheikh's suit, were superficial procedural squabbles, it 
was clear that the political implications for Nour and his 
party were potentially devastating.  The dispute provided the 
GOE's Political Parties Committee (PPC), chaired by Shura 
Council Speaker (and ruling NDP Secretary-General) Safwat 
Sherif with a potentially perfect pretext to suspend the Ghad 
Party's license.  Suspending parties riven by internal 
leadership disputes has long been a standard practice of the 
PPC.  Of 19 legally registered parties, four are currently in 
suspended status for this reason.  However, the court 
rejected Al-Sheikh's suit on September 19, and there are so 
far no signs of impending PPC action against the Ghad. 
 
6. (C) Nonetheless, particularly given Nour's strong showing 
in the September 7 presidential polls, many observers believe 
elements within the GOE would have every reason to undermine 
the Ghad Party in order to prevent another embarrassingly 
strong performance in the parliamentary elections. (Comment: 
In fact, the Ghad's potential electoral threat to the NDP on 
the parliamentary front will be modest.  Our senior party 
contact predicts the Ghad will field no more than 30 
candidates for the 444 People's Assembly seats that will be 
contested.  End comment.) 
 
7. (C) Ghad Party contacts, and a number of independent 
observers, believe that both Musa Musa and Rageb Hilal 
Hemeida have for some time been firmly under the control of 
GOE elements out to get Nour and tame, if not destroy, his 
party.  Musa, who was abroad at the time of Nour's January 29 
arrest, could have also been jailed - his signature was next 
to Nour's on all of the offending documents.  It is widely 
believed that prosecution was waived in return for his 
"cooperation" with the GOE.  Likewise, Ragab Hilal, a 
charismatic businessman with a checkered financial past, 
could easily be jailed by the GOE - he is known to face 
numerous unenforced court judgments. 
 
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Rebels Crushed 
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8. (C) Nour and his camp dealt decisively with the internal 
challenge.  A September 19 meeting of the Ghad Party's higher 
council ended with the expulsion of senior party officials 
Musa, Mursi al-Sheikh, Ragab Hilal Hemeida and businessman 
Ibrahim Saleh.  Musa and his expelled colleagues apparently 
had few friends on the higher committee; the decisions to 
expel them were unanimous.  Left standing in the senior Ghad 
Party leadership were Vice Presidents Nagui al-Ghatrifi, a 
retired diplomat, and Hisham Kassem, a newspaper publisher 
and outspoken GOE critic, and assistant Secretary-General and 
Nour confidante Wael Nowara.  Egyptian press reports are also 
citing rumors that Nour's wife Gamila Ismail might be elected 
to fill one of the newly vacant senior party posts at the 
September 23 conference. 
 
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More Clouds on the Horizon 
-------------------------- 
 
9. (C) Meanwhile, Ayman Nour's trial on criminal forgery 
charges is set to resume on September 25.  The venue for the 
trial has been moved from the high profile South Cairo 
courthouse to a more obscure courtroom in the eastern Cairo 
suburb of Nasr City.  Nour and his supporters continue to 
contend that the charges were manufactured against him by 
political enemies within the GOE and the ruling NDP, 
expressly to punish his strident criticism of the regime 
undermine the potential electoral challenges posed by his new 
party. 
 
10. (C) Nour's trial opened in late June in a circus-like 
atmosphere (reftels) with thousands of supporters, many of 
them unruly, contained by thousands of riot police.  As 
reported in ref B, the prosecution was thrown into apparent 
disarray when its star witness asserted to judges and 
courtroom observers that he had been coerced into testifying 
against Nour.  Even so, few Cairo political observers are 
willing to predict which direction the trial will take, 
although most assume that any major decisions taken by the 
court will be political - and dictated by the GOE. 
 
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Comment 
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11. (C) There are three principal scenarios for Nour's trial. 
 First, it could end in a quick acquittal, presumably 
vindicating Nour and allowing him and his party to focus on 
the legislative elections.  Second, it could end in a fairly 
rapid conviction, removing Nour from the stage and probably 
wrecking the Ghad Party, but with uncertain and possibly 
explosive political repercussions.  Third, and probably most 
likely, the trial could drag on, either through lengthy 
hearings or further postponements, until after the 
parliamentary elections.  This scenario would have the effect 
of undermining Nour and the Ghad without risking the backlash 
of a conviction. 
 
12. (C) We also cannot discount the possibility that the PPC 
might recognize the expelled Ghad figures as a rival, 
parallel leadership, should they present themselves as such, 
and thus decide to suspend the party's license.  End comment. 
 
 
Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo 
 
You can also access this site through the 
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. 
 
JONES