US embassy cable - 05BRATISLAVA749

C O N F I D E N T I A L  BRATISLAVA 000749 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PINR, LO 
SUBJECT: STILL NO PARLIAMENTARY QUORUM AFTER A WEEK; 
COALITION HOPES TO SUCCEED 9/21 
 
REF: A. BRATISLAVA 738 
     B. BRATISLAVA 730 
 
Classified By: DCM Lawrence R. Silverman for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
1.  (C)  SUMMARY AND COMMENT:  A week after failing to gather 
the quorum necessary to open parliament (ref B), the 
Coalition failed again on September 20 to bring 76 MPs to the 
chamber, reach quorum, and resume the council's session after 
summer recess.  Independent deputies continue to move in 
mysterious ways, with several of the MPs the coalition was 
counting on noticeably absent (or in one case, even departing 
moments before the head count) from the chamber, while 
several former opposition members left their party for good 
to join the coalition movement.  Despite the wheeling and 
dealing of the past week, the coalition could get only 75 
deputies to the table September 20.  Prime Minister 
Dzurinda's advisor confidently told us the coalition would 
garner the necessary deputies September 21, and that seems to 
be the analytical consensus here.  If they do not, several 
other options remain at the coalition's disposal, but early 
elections would be almost certainly assured.  END SUMMARY AND 
COMMENT. 
 
WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE... 
-------------------------- 
 
2.  (C)  At 9:00am September 20, Chairman of parliament Pavol 
Hrusovsky attempted to open the parliamentary session which 
had been postponed after falling three votes short of quorum 
last week.  While three independent MPs sent signals that 
they would be joining the coalition to assist in this effort, 
the three -- Ivan Kino, Gustav Krajci, and Robert Nemcsics -- 
were not present for the quorum count.  SDKU MP Pal Farkas 
told us that Nemcsics was present in the chamber before the 
9:00am, quorum call, but that he left shortly before.  Farkas 
told us before the 10:00am call that he was sure that 
Nemcsics had simply been called away by some sort of 
important business; however, the 10:00am count came and went 
without Nemcsics, Krajci, or Kino. 
 
3.  (C)  SDKU MP Roman Vavrik told us after the count that he 
believes that Krajci was there and that he simply pressed the 
"wrong button" on the automated voting system, a story that 
KDH MP Jozef Miklusicak told us as well.  Vavrik also told us 
that he believes that Ivan Simko -- who told the press 
yesterday that he would not be participating in this 
morning's attempted opening -- is closer to "pushing the 
right button" at tomorrow's next scheduled roll call, but did 
not elaborate on whether or not he believes Simko will reach 
a deal with the coalition.  Miklusicak told us that KDH MPs 
are pleased because they believe Krajci was present for the 
quorum, so they are confident that the session will begin 
tomorrow.  According to Miklusicak, KDH really was only 
considering early elections as a "last resort." 
 
NOT A PERFECT DAY FOR THE OPPOSITION, EITHER 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  Despite the fact that the coalition failed to begin 
the session, there was bad news today for the opposition, as 
well:  two HZDS MPs -- including Karol Dzupa, a longtime 
party loyalist -- defected from Vladimir Meciar's party and 
signed on to Lubomir Lintner's club of former ANO deputies. 
By joining the club, MPs Dzupa and Eduard Kolesar (a former 
IV participant) pledged their support for the coalition and 
they showed up for the quorum call.  In a press conference 
following the failed quorum call, Meciar again called for 
early elections on June 10, 2006.  Meciar said he was 
surprised by the departure of Dzupa and Kolesar, and declared 
tongue-in-cheek that he planned to remain a member of HZDS. 
While there are rumors that Meciar "sent" Dzupa and Kolesar 
to help the coalition, none of our contacts in parliament put 
any credence in them.  Dzupa -- never a major player in the 
party -- may simply be another HZDS member disgruntled with 
Meciar's autocratic leadership of the party. 
 
WHY KOLESAR LEFT HZDS 
--------------------- 
 
5.  (C)  COMMENT:  During our interactions with Kolesar as an 
IV, we found him to be a HZDS "believer" who was likely 
indoctrinated by his parents (Kolesar is in his mid-30's). 
He was a local organizer and youth leader for HZDS, though he 
always advocated closer cooperation with the coalition at the 
same time.  We doubt he left HZDS "on principle," and find it 
more likely that, at number 24, he felt he wasn't high enough 
on the party's candidate list.  By joining another party, he 
may be trying to prolong his political career (and retain the 
handsome salary that comes with it).  Lintner and the 
coalition have probably been pursuing him as a "convert" for 
a while, as he wouldn't have as much political "baggage" as 
other, older, HZDS MPs. 
 
 
TOMORROW: PARTY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF PARLIAMENT 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
6.  (C)  COMMENT, CONT'D:  Our SDKU and KDH interlocutors are 
confident that the parliament will have quorum and that the 
session will begin the morning of September 21; however, they 
were also fairly confident last week.  One of the options 
being widely discussed in the press is the possible temporary 
recall of Foreign Minister Eduard Kukan to parliament, where 
he would "bump" former SDKU MP Jozef Hurban (who has not been 
participating in the quorum counts) and help open the 
session.  However, we feel that such a tactic would only 
emphasize what the opposition is already claiming:  that 
Dzurinda's coalition does not have enough support in 
parliament to advance its agenda, and must resort to 
manipulating the membership rather than garnering support 
among independent and opposition peers.  If they fail to 
reach quorum on September 21, early elections become even 
more likely; even if the coalition succeeds, however, this 
experience has probably made early elections -- perhaps in 
June 2006 -- much more likely. 
 
VALLEE 
 
 
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