US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN1707

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001707 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR DRL AND EUR/CACEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, AM 
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER TUMANYAN TO FORM A 
POLITICAL PARTY? 
 
 
(U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect 
accordingly. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (SBU) As local politicians begin to gear up for the 
2007-2008 elections in Armenia, the rumor that 
President Robert Kocharian's Chief of Staff, Artashes 
Tumanyan, may enter national politics with his own 
party, is still big news.  Tumanyan has been in 
politics since 1990 and has been promoted to various 
high-level posts throughout his career.  He has kept a 
relatively low profile over the past few years while 
operating within the GOAM.  His reputation and access 
to key players in the political structure indicate, 
however, that a party launched by Tumanyan could become 
a strong one.  Tumanyan appears to have President 
Kocharian's support and a strong popular base in the 
northern Lori region of Armenia.  End Summary. 
 
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WILL TUMANYAN FORM A NEW PARTY? 
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2. (SBU) In mid-September, local newspapers carried 
stories suggesting that the President's Chief of Staff, 
Artashes Tumanyan, was planning to form a new political 
party.  Aravot, an opposition daily, claimed the party 
was being formed at President Kocharian's request, who 
hoped to use it to ensure that a majority of his allies 
would be well positioned in the next parliament.  In a 
subsequent press conference, the President's Spokesman, 
Viktor Soghomonyan, confirmed the rumors of the party's 
establishment, but denied the President had any role in 
it.  Viktor Dallakyan, an opposition MP who shares 
Tumanyan's Lori region base of support, said that 
Tumanyan had discussed the idea of a party under 
Tumanyan's leadership with him.  According to the 
Ministry of Justice, however, Tumanyan has not yet 
registered his party; Tumanyan himself has not yet 
commented publicly on the proposed party. 
 
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TUMANYAN'S BID HAS BIG POTENTIAL 
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3. (SBU) Amid constant rumors in recent months about 
creation of new political parties (a party consisting 
of the major oligarchs, a party backed by former 
"Defense Minister" of Nagorno Karabagh, etc.) a bid by 
Artashes Tumanyan stands out.  Tumanyan, unlike these 
other leaders, has maintained a low public profile and 
insulated himself from political mud-slinging.  At the 
same time, he has managed to operate effectively across 
party lines and, unlike other political actors in 
Armenia, he does not have major enemies in the previous 
administration.  This, coupled with his apparent 
pragmatism, suggests to some that he could potentially 
be a strong political leader. 
 
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COMMENT:  POLITICAL ALIGNMENTS, RE-ALIGNMENTS 
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4. (SBU) The upcoming 2008 presidential elections 
promise big changes, as this is President Kocharian's 
last term in office.  We expect intense competition 
during the 2007 Parliamentary elections as well, due to 
the changes in the Electoral Code, which reduced the 
number of single-mandate seats in the parliament from 
56 to 41.  In addition, the changes in the Law on 
Political Parties have significantly increased the 
number of members necessary to register a party, and we 
expect this to lead to the consolidation and 
realignment of political groups as well. 
 
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BIO NOTES 
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5. (SBU) Artashes Tumanyan was born November 16, 1949 
in the Noyemberyan region (the northern-most region of 
Armenia) to a family of civil servants.  He graduated 
from the Department of Technical Cybernetics of the 
Yerevan State Polytechnic Institute in 1971 and later 
earned his doctorate.  Before entering political life 
in 1990, he worked in Vanadzor first as lecturer and 
then in construction.  From 1990 to 1995 he was in the 
Armenian Parliament, where from 1992 to 1995 he served 
as the second Deputy Speaker.  In 1995 he was elected 
to a second term.  In 1997 he relinquished his seat in 
Parliament to lead the Armenian Tax Service, where he 
served until 1998.  From 1999 to 2000 he was a Deputy 
Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia.  From 2000 to 
the present he has worked as the President's Chief of 
Staff. 
GODFREY