US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI7345

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 007345 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2015 
TAGS: ECON, PGOV, PINR, PREL, PTER, IN, PK, BG, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: ALL EYES ON VAJPAYEE AS ADVANI AND RSS TUSSLE 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 7230 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  The BJP's leadership conclave in Chennai 
ended with a bang when LK Advani picked a very public fight 
with the Hindu right-wing RSS over the future ideological 
direction of the party.  On September 18, Advani finally 
submitted to RSS pressure to resign (in December) as party 
president.  However, he handed the RSS a phyrric victory and 
broke some Hindutva crockery by stating that he disagreed 
with the extent to which the RSS micro-manages BJP 
decision-making, and urged the RSS to stick to "cultural" 
matters.  Advani will purportedly remain as the Parliamentary 
opposition leader, but there is already widespread 
speculation that he may lose that position as well.  It is 
not yet clear whether the RSS will succeed in naming Murli 
Manohar Joshi or another Hindutva hard-liner to the BJP 
President's post.  Although the BJP leadership claims that 
Advani's announcement ended party divisions and they are 
prepared to contest and win upcoming elections, insiders tell 
us privately that the protracted conflict has taken its toll. 
 Attention is focusing yet again on former PM Vajpayee as the 
one person who can work political miracles and unite the 
party in time.  Meanwhile, a BJP resolution underlined the 
party's strong opposition to opening the retail sector to 
FDI, illustrating the two front battle the PM must wage if he 
wishes to accelerate the pace of economic reform.  End 
Summary. 
 
Advani Throws in the Towel..in December 
--------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) As expected (reftel), at the conclusion of the 
party's three day conclave in Chennai on September 18, LK 
Advani announced his imminent departure from the post of BJP 
Party President. In his concluding statement, Advani 
confirmed that he would leave and hand over to his successor 
at the party's silver jubilee celebrations in December.  For 
the time being, Advani will remain as leader of the 
opposition in Parliament.  However, our contacts speculate 
that shortly after he leaves the post of Party President, 
Advani may be forced to resign from this position as well. 
 
 
But Throws Down the Gauntlet 
---------------------------- 
 
3.  (U) Although many within the Sangh Parivar had been 
pressing for Advani's departure for the past four months, it 
was not the moment of triumph they expected.  In his remarks, 
Advani made it clear that he resented the heavy-handed role 
of the RSS, and urged the organization to restrict itself to 
cultural activities and nationbuilding and refrain from 
active political involvement. 
 
4.  (U) Advani stated that: "lately an impression has gained 
ground that no political or organizational decision can be 
taken without the consent of the RSS functionaries.  This 
perception, we hold, will do no good either to the party or 
to the RSS." 
 
No Clear Successor, but RSS Pulls in its Horns 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
5.  (U) The RSS assumed a low profile after the resignation. 
The organization's spokesman Ram Madhav termed Advani's 
announcement "an internal matter of the BJP." Madhav refused 
to comment on Advani's remarks regarding the RSS and its 
political role, saying only that "we have taken note of his 
suggestions.  We will discuss this issue with the BJP in the 
near future."  No one in the RSS made public suggestions as 
to who should replace Advani as BJP President. 
 
6.  (U) Although there is no clear front-runner for the post 
and a "dark horse" could emerge, three potential Presidents 
are most frequently mentioned by the pundits.  Murli Manohar 
Joshi, the BJP General Secretary is the favorite of the Sangh 
Parivar, but may be too old for the position.  Sushma Swaraj, 
the party's Deputy Leader in the Rajya Sabha, is another 
frontrunner.  Swaraj may not be favored by the RSS, as she 
was initially a socialist and has never been tied to the 
Sangh Parivar.  Former Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh (UP) 
Rajnath Singh could emerge as a compromise candidate.  Singh 
was able to engineer the BJP's only recent electoral 
victories in Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand.  None of these 
contenders have the political gravitas of Vajpayee or Advani. 
 
7.  (U) A well-placed journalist in Chennai claimed to Poloff 
that Sushma Swaraj is best placed to replace Advani, as she 
seems acceptable to the RSS, belongs to a family of former 
Socialists and has a wider appeal than most BJP leaders. 
 
What About the Issues? 
---------------------- 
 
8.  (U) The controversy surrounding Advani's leadership 
overshadowed substantive resolutions on the issues facing 
India.  The BJP conclave issued three resolutions on 
politics, economics, and internal security, which attempted 
to spell-out the party's positions.  They were meant to 
galvanize the party before upcoming elections, but received 
little attention. 
 
An Ineffectual Governing Alliance? 
---------------------------------- 
 
9.  (U) The political resolution decried the era of United 
Progressive Alliance (UPA) rule as one of "ramshackle 
governance, incoherence, recklessness and drift."  The BJP 
argued that the UPA is a weak coalition based on "anti-BJPism 
and a warped articulation of secularism," and therefore is 
plagued by competing power-centers and incapable of 
formulating and executing an agenda for the nation.  The 
resolution accused the UPA of an "assault on democracy in 
Goa, Jharkhand and Bihar," where it "misused the office of 
the Governor for narrow, partisan ends." 
 
10.  (U) The UPA's pandering to India's Muslims has allegedly 
had "hideous consequences on national unity," by reviving 
"religion-based quotas," and "emboldening reactionary clerics 
into issuing edicts which violate the dignity and human 
rights of Muslim women."  The resolution promised that the 
BJP would "continue to play the role of a robust nationalist 
opposition in Parliament and outside." 
 
The BJP's Economic Alternative: Challenge on Retail Opening 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
11.  (U) Stating that the UPA has "failed to honor" its 
promises to "safeguard the interests of the common man, to 
eradicate poverty and unemployment, to prevent farmers' 
suicides, to end labor exploitation, to remove the 
difficulties of the middle class and to accelerate the pace 
of reform," the BJP resolution on economic policy promised to 
provide an economic alternative.  Because of the Left Front's 
"veto power," the UPA is allegedly incapable of enacting 
meaningful economic reforms and cannot "take and enforce 
economic decisions."  The resolution claimed that "whenever 
the Congress has formed a government in alliance with the 
Left parties, the interests of the country have always 
suffered," and the resolution accused Congress of sacrificing 
the "national interest" to appease the Communists. 
 
12.  (C) Surprisingly, the BJP's economic resolution accuses 
the UPA of not going far enough in the introduction and 
implementation of populist economic measures.  For example, 
the BJP criticized the UPA's National Employment Guarantee 
Bill for providing guaranteed employment to only one adult 
male per rural household.  The party promised to extend the 
bill to include over 40 million unemployed in urban areas, 
provide employment to every able-bodied adult in a household 
and pay a minimum of 60 rupees (usd 1.37) per day to each 
worker.  The BJP also promised to oppose FDI in India's 
retail sector, claiming that it "will result in the 
unemployment of tens of millions." 
 
The UPA's Biggest Failure: Security 
----------------------------------- 
 
13.  (U) Citing India's "deteriorating internal security 
situation" as "the biggest failure of the UPA regime," the 
BJP promised to address terrorism, Maoist Naxalites, and 
"illegal infiltration" from Bangladesh.  The BJP resolution 
claimed that terrorism has increased "without inhibition" 
under the UPA, as it has failed to draft a national policy. 
The BJP promised to devise a "common strategy" to combat 
Naxalites, put India on "high alert" regarding Pakistani 
support to terrorism, to "keep a sharp eye on the activities 
of the ISI," and to "identify, ...illegal infiltrators" and 
make every effort to "send them back to Bangladesh." 
 
Views from Chennai: RSS Needs to Chill Out 
------------------------------------------ 
 
14.  (C) In a September 19 meeting with Chennai Poloff, BJP 
National Secretary L. Ganesen and former BJP treasurer 
Sukumar Nambiar expressed serious concern about the outcome 
of the BJP conclave.  Both seemed reconciled to Advani,s 
departure and a future BJP with a new generation of 
leadership, expressing great respect for Advani but an 
unwillingness to dilute party ideology and the RSS-BJP 
relationship. 
 
15.  (C) Ganesen noted that Advani &shocked8 RSS workers 
when he referred to Jinnah as a &great human being8 from 
Pakistan, adding that Advani's resignation and open 
questioning of the RSS-BJP relationship put the entire BJP 
&in shock8 again.  He adamantly maintained that despite 
Advani's assertions, the RSS does not interfere with the 
BJP's day-to-day operations.  Both insisted that Advani would 
continue as opposition leader in Parliament and would be 
respected in the party, but noted that in the BJP ideology is 
paramount.  Ganesen pointed out that future party leadership 
will come from a strong group of second tier leaders, who 
will do a good job. 
 
The Delhi Perspective: Relentless Public Optimism 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
16.  (C) The party leadership contends that this episode will 
not hurt its electoral chances.  Former Foreign Minister 
Jaswant Singh told reporters on September 18 that the BJP 
fully expects to win the upcoming election in Bihar, saying 
"We will continue to achieve what we have set for ourselves, 
which is to unseat the unholy and corrupt organization of the 
RJD-Congress combine."  In private, BJP leaders are not so 
sanguine.  On September 15, BJP party insider and Delhi MLA 
Vijay Jolly told Poloff that his party is deeply divided, 
does not expect to win elections anytime soon and is prepared 
to move slowly and methodically to regain power over the 
longer term. 
 
17.  (C) On September 19, a journalist close to the BJP 
leadership claimed to us that Vajpayee protected Advani in 
Chennai by instructing his supporters to back the beleaguered 
Party President.  The journalist quoted BJP insiders who 
confirmed that Vajpayee and Advani both want Sangh loyalists 
under tight control, and "no Sangh interference in the 
day-to-day affairs of the party." 
18.  (C) Rumors are already circulating in BJP circles that 
Advani plans to work with Vajpayee between now and December 
to humble the Sangh Parivar, shore up his position, and then 
withdraw his resignation.  If this proves impossible, Advani 
purportedly will support Arun Jaitley as the next President, 
as he has no political base and therefore no ambitions. 
 
Comment: Vajpayee Yet Again in Control 
-------------------------------------- 
 
19.  (C) Events in Chennai have not resolved the deep divides 
within the BJP.  The Sangh Parivar has unseated Advani, but 
he did not go quietly or turn the party over to its 
hardliners.  Advani is determined to make the BJP more viable 
by making it more pragmatic.  Instead of acquiescing to 
Hindutva, he fired a shot across the bows of the RSS, 
displaying his appetite for further combat to control the 
BJP's agenda.  With the party facing a tough electoral 
contest in Bihar and what could be a bitter succession 
struggle, all eyes have turned again to former PM Vajpayee, 
who has emerged unscathed with increased stature.  Many will 
expect him to work his old magic, patch up divisions and have 
a major voice in determining Advani's successor.  With the 
clock ticking and state elections approaching quickly, Advani 
will have to work quietly behind the scenes to rein in RSS 
Chief Sudarshan and other Hindutva hardliners in time for the 
BJP to make a credible showing. 
 
20.  (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: 
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) 
BLAKE