US embassy cable - 05MANILA4443

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 004443 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/PMBS, EAP/IET, INR/EAP, DS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PINR, ASEC, RP 
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION MOTION IN HOUSE TO RECONSIDER 
IMPEACHMENT FAILS; ANTI-ARROYO RALLIES IN MANILA 
 
REF: A. MANILA 4221 
 
     B. MANILA 4140 
     C. MANILA 4040 
     D. MANILA 4019 
 
Classified By: Acting Pol/C Joseph L. Novak for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  The Opposition tried to file a motion in 
the House on September 19 asking for a reconsideration of its 
recent decision to quash the impeachment complaints against 
President Arroyo.  The effort failed, however, due to the 
lack of a quorum.  Opposition leaders have admitted that 
their impeachment effort is all but over, although there may 
be continued efforts to get the Supreme Court to review the 
matter.  The Opposition is sponsoring several anti-Arroyo 
rallies in Manila on September 21.  The largest is taking 
place in the financial center of Makati.  The rallies seem to 
be peaceful and orderly as of 1700 hrs.   With the rainy 
season ending soon, the Opposition is clearly hoping to ramp 
up the pressure on Arroyo by taking to the streets.  End 
Summary. 
 
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Last Gasp in the House 
---------------------- 
 
2.  (U) The Opposition tried to file a motion in the House on 
September 19 asking for a reconsideration of its recent 
decision to quash the impeachment complaints against 
President Arroyo.  (Note:  On September 6, the House voted 
158-51 with four abstentions to accept the Justice Committee 
report which effectively barred the impeachment complaints -- 
see ref  b.  End Note.)  The effort failed, however, due to 
the lack of a quorum.  Only 104 of the 236 House members were 
present when at least half had to be in order for there to be 
a quorum in which business could be dealt with.  House rules 
allow only one attempt to file a motion for reconsideration 
of an impeachment complaint. 
 
3.  (C) With the failure of their reconsideration motion, 
Opposition leaders have publicly admitted that their 
impeachment effort is all but over.  They continue to 
complain that Malacanang failed to allow the Opposition to 
air its grievances.  Ronnie Zamora, a well-known Opposition 
Congressman, told Acting Pol/C on September 21 that "all of 
us who are against Arroyo realize that the impeachment effort 
is over, but we will continue to try to remove her from 
power."  Some in the Opposition have promised to continue to 
pursue legal options as a possible way to get the impeachment 
complaint reinstated in the House.  These efforts were dealt 
a blow on September 13 when the Supreme Court rejected a 
petition claiming that the procedures used in the House to 
quash the Opposition's main impeachment complaint were 
unconstitutional.  It is unclear whether the Opposition plans 
to file another petition with the Supreme Court.  Zamora, who 
is also a lawyer, told Acting Pol/C that he doubted that 
legal avenues would work, asserting that "the courts are full 
of cronies of Arroyo's and will not take Opposition claims 
seriously." 
 
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More Rallies 
------------ 
 
4.  (SBU) One area where the Opposition continues to be 
active is in moving forward with "people power"-type rallies. 
 Opposition groups, for example, are sponsoring several 
anti-Arroyo rallies in Manila on September 21.  The largest 
is taking place in the financial center of Makati.  The 
Opposition is predicting that over 30,000 people will attend 
this rally, but as of 1700 hrs only several thousand people 
were in attendance, according to Pol FSN on the scene.  Key 
Opposition leaders are expected to be in attendance.  Traffic 
in the Makati area has been tied up due to the rally. 
Leftist groups are also sponsoring two other rallies in other 
areas of Manila to mark the anniversary of the declaration of 
martial law in 1972 by Ferdinand Marcos and "to remember its 
victims."  Large numbers of police have been deployed to 
monitor the protests.  All of the rallies seem to be peaceful 
and orderly as of 1700 hrs. 
 
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Comment 
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5.  (C) The Opposition is clearly hoping to ramp up the 
pressure on Arroyo by taking to the streets.  Arroyo's poll 
numbers continue to be poor and a new scandal has erupted 
over her government's hiring of a U.S. lobbying firm (see 
septel), but thus far there is no sign that the public is 
planning to turn out in large numbers to join street 
protests.  The Opposition remains hopeful, however, that once 
the rainy season ends in the next several weeks the size of 
its rallies will increase, although most observers discount 
that possibility. 
Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/ 
 
JOHNSON