US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD3878

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 003878 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, NEA/PPD, NEA/PPA, NEA/AGS, INR/IZ, INR/P 
 
E.0. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, IZ, Media, Parliament 
SUBJECT: DAILY IRAQI WEBSITE MONITORING - September 19, 2005 
 
 
SUMMARY: Discussion on the Constitution and Thoughts on A 
Possible Impending Civil War were the major editorial themes 
of Iraqi, Arabic language websites on September 19, 2005. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------ 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
------------------------------ 
 
A. "Effects Worse Than Catastrophe and Defeat!" (Iraq 4 All 
News, 9/19) 
B. "Money" (Al-Soat Al-Iraq, 9/19) 
C. "Toward an Emergency Plan to Avoid a Civil War in Iraq" 
(Independent Iraqi News Agency, 9/19) 
D. "I'll Vote Against the Constitution" (Al-Soat Al-Iraq, 
9/19) 
--------------------------------------- 
SELECTED COMMENTARIES 
 
 
A. "Effects Worse Than Catastrophe and Defeat!" 
(Editorial by Khair Allah Khair Allah - Iraq 4 All News - 
http://iraq4all.org/viewnews.php?id=9914 / Iraqi exile 
community website based in Denmark, not affiliated with any 
political party) 
 
"Has the civil war started in Iraq? This might be the 
reality following the series of explosions on Wednesday that 
killed over 160. The least that could be said about these 
events is that they confirmed fears of an uncontrollable 
ethnic struggle. Anyone who wishes to be honest with 
themselves should face the facts and wonder whether it is 
still possible to salvage anything. 
 
"The bloody events that continued days after "Black 
Wednesday" took place against a well-known background of 
events: Armed Shiite groups were killing local residents 
only  because they were Sunnis; in return, suicide attacks 
similar to those that took place in Al-Kadhumiya on 
Wednesday continued to target large numbers of Shiites. 
Murderous instincts were unleashed in this chaotic state 
created by the Americans. This has attracted extremists from 
all over the globe, making any reasonable statement sound 
unacceptable. 
 
"There is a reality that cannot be overlooked: despite Sunni 
representation in the government, the government has left 
Sunnis with the impression that they are continually 
marginalized. Whether it is right or wrong, this is the case 
and it should be confronted if any efforts are to be made to 
avoid a looming civil war. In other words, the presence of 
Shiite religious parties such as Al-Dawa and SCIRI has 
driven many Sunnis to support terrorism. 
 
"This, in short, is the situation in Iraq; a situation that 
is entering the civil war phase, where Shiite parties in 
power have not found any way to respond to Zarqawi's 
terrorism other than sending armed militias to punish areas 
inhabited by Sunni majorities. All this is taking place in 
the absence of a clear American strategy-aside from 
exaggerated statements against Syria. 
 
"If events continue on this course, it is hard to imagine 
how a civil war can be avoided, a war from which Arabs would 
find hard to keep their distance, especially with an 
increasing Iranian influence in the country. As for the 
constitution, it may prove useful for nothing other than 
fictional American achievements. 
 
"It is truly a frightening situation. All indications point 
to an actual beginning of a civil war that will have a 
negative impact on Arabs more significant than those of the 
1948 and 1967 defeats." 
 
B. "Money" 
(Editorial by Mohammed Abdul Jabar Al-Shaboot 
Al-Soat Al-Iraq - "The Voice of Iraq" - 
http://www.sotaliraq.com/articles-iraq/nieuws .php?id=15666 / 
Website run by Faili (Shi'a) Kurds, not affiliated with any 
political party) 
 
"Prominent Iraqis and urban representatives come out of 
their meetings with the Prime Minister happy with the 
blessing of meeting the most senior executive official in 
the state according to the Transitional Administrative Law 
and the draft constitution, and for hearing his sweet 
promises to look after their interests. 
"It is a positive sign when government officials meet with 
citizens to discuss matters of mutual interest, and on top 
of that, distribute envelopes containing ten $100 bills 
($1,000 U.S.-not local currency) which might raise some 
questions over the use of green American currency instead of 
the Iraqi multi-colored currency (please do not mix this up 
with multi-national forces). 
 
"The only thing we can do here is guess. The first guess is 
that since the money was handed out in the Green Zone, it 
might be more appropriate to use a green currency which 
sends out a better environmental message; a second guess is 
that the amount will be of a smaller size and therefore 
easier to carry than the equivalent 1.5 million Iraqi 
dinars; another guess is that if the amount of money was not 
part of the Iraqi government's budget, then there is no need 
for it to be in local currency, and this particular guess 
raises a serious question about the source of these funds 
presented by the PM to his visitors: Do they come from his 
personal wealth or from public funds? If it is indeed from 
his personal wealth, then there is no problem, as generosity 
has always been a good quality. But again, where did this 
personal wealth come from, especially since we all know that 
the PM does not descend from a wealthy family? 
 
"So I believe it would be rather useful for the PM to reveal 
the source of this wealth. Or perhaps these funds were 
presented by a charitable organization, and in this case, I 
believe the public would like to know where this money is 
being spent. If these funds are taken from the government's 
budget, then the public has the right to know, as does the 
Council of Ministers, or at least the Minister of Finance. 
Additionally, what are the criteria for choosing the people 
who receive these funds? Maybe the whole thing is nothing 
more than a personal friendly gift. If so, why doesn't the 
Iraqiya channel broadcast these friendly gestures to its 
viewers if they have nothing to do with the coming 
elections?" 
 
C. "Toward an Emergency Plan to Avoid a Civil War in Iraq" 
(Editorial by Mohammed Abdul Al'Atti - Independent Iraqi 
News Agency - http://www.normal.iraq- 
ina.com/showarticles.php?id=1368) 
 
"The sectarian and ethnic congestion in which Iraqis live 
nowadays is casting gloomy shadows in Arab and Islamic 
countries. All who follow Iraqi affairs and these tragic 
events put their hands on their hearts and hold their 
breaths hoping they will not witness the day when civil war 
breaks out. But candid expectations are not enough, as they 
do not end the killing, diffuse the situation, or ease ever 
increasing tensions. 
 
"The issue needs a practical effort proportional in size to 
the expected disaster if, God forbid, the disputing parties 
decide to use violence to settle matters that bilateral and 
multilateral talks fail to solve. Condemnation and warnings 
from religious authorities are not enough because they 
provide mere words that cannot be turned into tangible 
action. The issue needs a serious stance proportional to the 
enormity of danger; it requires responsible action that 
addresses the disastrous consequences which would result 
from sectarian and ethnic war. If it happens it will not 
only destroy Iraq, but it will extend to neighboring and 
regional countries throughout the Islamic world. 
 
"The issue needs preemptive diplomacy and then an emergency 
plan so as to reduce the destructive loss from a possible 
disaster-a plan implemented by Iraqis with support and 
assistance from top scholars in the Islamic Republic of 
Iran, the Gulf States, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey....etc. 
Isn't convening an International Islamic Conference to 
establish a plan like this something we need to contemplate 
and take advantage of before it is too late?" 
 
D. "I'll Vote Against the Constitution" 
(Editorial by Yousif Fadhil - Al-Soat Al-Iraq - "The Voice 
of Iraq" - http://www.sotaliraq.com/articles- 
iraq/nieuws.php?id=15690) 
 
"Yes the Constitution has many merits, but it also contains 
many weak points. The most significant of these is the haste 
with which the constitution was written. The reason is not 
that Iraq needs a constitution; Iraq lived without a 
permanent constitution for long periods and nothing 
happened. It will not hurt us if we wait for another year to 
discuss its articles and research its unprofessional 
writers. 
 
"The haste is because of the American agenda-not the Iraqi 
agenda! Therefore, Iraq ought to modify its conditions that 
currently serve the interests of the United States and those 
currently in office! 
 
"I think Iraq is not yet qualified for federalism. Iraq 
needs a long time to prepare and practice the democratic 
process if it is to enjoy positive results. A constitution 
is one of the fruits of democracy. 
 
"I am sure the ratification of a flawed constitution will 
lead to instability, erratic actions, and damage to all of 
Iraq. 
 
"I will participate in the electoral process because it is 
the civilized way to represent people in the state. I will 
respect the results even if they are against my vision and 
beliefs. I might be wrong. I will try to correct things in 
the future in a democratic way. Yes, there is a price to 
implement democracy and it must be paid, but it is less 
costly than the substitute-dictatorship!" 
 
SATTERFIELD