US embassy cable - 05NAIROBI3863

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 003863 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, PINS, PHUM, KE, Referendum 
SUBJECT: KENYA CONSTITUTION: VIOLENCE MARS THE YES CAMPAIGN 
 
REF: A. (A) NAIROBI 3847 
 
     B. (B) NAIROBI 3499 
 
1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  Supporters of the proposed constitution 
launched their "Yes" campaign with three planned rallies 
September 16-18.  As violence marred several pro-draft 
events, the message from both sides of the debate shifted to 
denounce violence and stress the importance of preventing the 
debate from escalating into inter-ethnic conflict.  However, 
ethnicity increasingly appears to be one of the fault lines 
in the campaign process.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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PLAYING TO THE CROWD...WHAT CROWD? 
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2.  (SBU) The pro-draft constitution ("Yes") campaign kicked 
off September 16 before an audience of approximately 300 
Maasai and bused-in supporters in the southern town of 
Kajiado, the first in a weekend-long series of planned 
events.  The rally came two days after Electoral Commission 
of Kenya (ECK) Chairman Samuel Kivuitu called for a temporary 
halt to campaigning (ref A).  Despite the songs about bananas 
(symbol of the "Yes" vote), on-stage banana eating, and a 
banana giveaway, the audience was rather passive and 
unenthusiastic.  (NOTE: Residents of the Kajiado area are not 
expected to be pro-draft, making it a surprising choice for a 
kick-off event. END NOTE.)  The rally was generally peaceful, 
apart from some rough police crowd-control during 
distribution of copies of the proposed draft.  Even the small 
contingent of orange-waving (the symbol of the "No" campaign) 
draft opponents arrayed along the main road out of Kajiado 
let the departing ministers pass without incident. 
 
3.  (U) The event, hosted by Education Minister Saitoti, was 
conducted almost entirely in Kiswahili with occasional 
attempts to use the Maasai language to appeal to the Maasai 
present.  Included in the audience were local school 
children, one of whom told PolOff that she had been given 
time off from class to attend the rally, adding that the 
school did not observe the same policy for the "No" rally 
previously held in the same town. 
 
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SOME SUBSTANCE, SOME POLITICS 
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4.  (U) The day's speakers, which included Vice President 
Awori and five cabinet ministers, encouraged careful 
examination of the provisions of the draft ("scrutinize it 
like the Bible", said Internal Security Minister Michuki), 
participation in civic education programs, and separation of 
politics from the constitutional debate.  Water Resources 
Minister Martha Karua highlighted some of the differences 
between the Bomas-approved draft and the current one, 
including the provision for a Prime Minister (Kenya cannot 
have a PM more powerful than the President, she said). 
Karua's choice of transportation for the day, a GOK 
helicopter, was in glaring contrast to Assistant Minister for 
Justice and Constitutional Affairs Njeru Githae's pledge 
during the rally that the "Yes" campaign would raise its own 
funds and not use GOK resources. 
 
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VIOLENCE PLAGUES THE "YES" CAMPAIGN 
----------------------------------- 
 
5.  (U) A second "Yes" rally planned for Saturday in Garissa, 
in Kenya's North Eastern Province was canceled after 
high-ranking campaigners were pelted with stones and oranges 
by opponents to the draft constitution.  Disturbances 
similarly marred other "Yes" gatherings in Mombasa on the 
coast and Kitui in the west of Rift Valley Province.  Members 
of the "Yes" camp accused Raila Odinga and former President 
Moi of encouraging violence among their supporters to 
undermine the government.  However, Odinga subsequently 
called for the "Yes" campaign to be allowed to conduct their 
activities without harassment, noting that violence could be 
used as an excuse to delay the referendum. 
 
6.  (SBU) The message predominating a September 18 "Yes" 
rally was one of reconciliation and unity.  During the Sunday 
rally, held in the outskirts of Nairobi at Banana Hill, 
speakers repeatedly cautioned against violence and stressed 
the need to prevent the animosity surrounding the referendum 
from dividing Kenyans.  Vice President Awori shared his 
recent visit to genocide sites in Rwanda to serve as a 
warning to Kenyans not to allow divisions over the draft 
constitution to promote tribalism or to escalate into 
inter-ethnic violence.  The Banana Hill rally was 
well-attended by the majority Kikuyu community, with many in 
the crowd enthusiastically supporting the "Yes" vote. 
 
7.  (SBU) COMMENT: The "Yes" campaign appears to be off to a 
rocky start given its lukewarm reception in Kajiado and 
violent opposition in Garissa and elsewhere.  By contrast, 
the crowds in Banana Hill were warmly receptive to the "Yes" 
campaign's message.  The draft constitution has been 
portrayed in local media as a "pro-Kikuyu" document, which 
might explain the different receptions.  Some Kikuyus are 
concerned about this portrayal, which could deepen existing 
mistrust among Kenya's ethnic groups.  Despite speakers' 
calls to avoid tribalism, divisions between "Yes" and "No" 
supporters increasingly fall out along ethnic lines.  The 
exception to this may come in a week, when Uhuru Kenyatta is 
slated to take his portion of the "No" campaign into the 
Kikuyu heartland.  END COMMENT. 
BELLAMY