US embassy cable - 05ALMATY3374

UNCLAS  ALMATY 003374 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KZ, 2005 Election, POLITICAL 
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDDUP, 
SEPTEMBER 19 
 
REF: Almaty 3295 
 
1. (U) This is the first in a series of weekly election 
roundups, in advance of Kazakhstan's December 4, 2005 
presidential elections.  Items were drawn primarily from 
the local press and media. 
 
The Gloves Are Off 
------------------ 
 
2. (U) "I am determined to run for the presidency," was 
the headline of an open letter to President Nazarbayev 
published August 17 by "For a Just Kazakhstan" (FJK) 
leader Zharmakhan Tuyakbay.  The statement was issued in 
response to a letter to Tuyakbay from the Almaty City 
procurator, warning against illegal pre-election 
campaigning.  In response to the warning, Tuyakbay accused 
Nazarbayev, saying "I consider this letter as proof of 
your inability to face honest political competition. Your 
trips to the regions represent a pre-election show, when 
huge budgetary funds are spent to depict the `people's 
happiness,' thousands of working people and schoolchildren 
are mobilized.  Judging by the number of populist 
promises, your [February] address to the nation was a pre- 
election statement.  State-controlled newspapers and TV 
channels unrestrainedly glorify your `exceptional nature' 
and `irreplaceability.'  Your Akims and your information- 
propagandist teams, recruited from state officials, 
agitate people for your candidacy." 
 
3. (U) The statement continued "The system of power 
created by you organically rejects free and fair 
elections.  This is why officials and criminals with 
impunity attack members of the `For a Just Kazakhstan' 
movement, beat people, and instigate disorder and 
provocations, as in Ust-Kamenogorsk, Shymkent and Atyrau." 
It concluded with a statement: "I will take part in the 
election to challenge the authoritarian and corrupt system 
of power you have created, to stop arbitrariness and 
lawlessness in our country, and to say `NO' to the unfair 
economy, which made a group of cronies extremely reach 
after theft of national resources and plunged the other 
citizens into poverty." 
 
4. (SBU) Media coverage of Tuyakbay's statement was 
uneven.  Only a handful of opposition news outlets covered 
it, and many of them focused only on the statement of his 
intention to run, omitting his accusations against 
Nazarbayev. 
 
Applications and Tests of Candidates 
------------------------------------ 
 
5. (U) As of September 14, four candidates have filed 
their applications for registration: the current president 
Nursultan Nazarbayev, senator Ualikhan Kaysarov, 
opposition leader Zharmakhan Tuyakbay, and independent 
candidate/political unknown Oten Salim Sagyndykuly.  The 
CEC has announced that all four have met the requirements 
for registration, including passing their Kazakh language 
tests. The next step in the registration process involves 
collection of signatures of support; candidates must 
obtain the signatures of at least one percent of the 
voters in each oblast. 
 
6. (SBU) When Tuyakbay filed his nomination documents with 
the CEC on September 12, accompanied by Bulat Abilov and 
Tolen Tokhtasynov, he presented a copy of FJK's resolution 
on the need for changes to the election process.  He 
stressed the need for the composition of the CEC to be 
changed to include representatives of candidates running 
in elections.  Tuyakbay then met with CEC Chairman Onalsyn 
Zhumabekov (who he was procurator in Mangistau Oblast when 
Tuyakbay was Procurator General) behind the closed doors. 
According to Tuyakbay, he raised some issues about the 
ongoing election campaign. 
 
Other Likely Candidates 
----------------------- 
 
7. (U) On September 13 the press service of the Ak Zhol 
party, headed by Alikhan Baimenov, reported on the 
meetings of its branches around the country where party 
activists discussed the upcoming presidential election. 
According to the report, in almost every region party 
 
 
leaders urged Baimenov to run.  It is likely that the 
September 20 Ak Zhol national congress will nominate 
Baimenov as a candidate. 
 
8. (U) The Communist People's Party of Kazakhstan (CPPK) 
plans to nominate eccentric MP Yerasyl Abylkasymov as its 
candidate during its September 17 congress in Almaty.  The 
57-year old Abylkasymov is an active advocate of the 
government in Parliament and a harsh critic of the West. 
He initiated the recent broad investigation of 
international organizations working in Kazakhstan. 
Abylkasymov has a university degree in medicine.  He was 
elected to Mazhilis (lower house) in 2001 and reelected in 
fall 2004.  Abylkasymov has been a member of the CPPK 
since its founding in spring 2004. 
 
9. (U) Other minor candidates who have announced their 
intention to run include former wrestling coach Zhaksybay 
Bazilbayev, who withdrew from the 1999 presidential 
elections in favor of Nazarbayev, and chairman of the 
Tabigat (Nature) green movement Mels Yeleusizov, who ran 
unsuccessfully for Parliament in 1992, 1994, 1995 and 
1999. 
 
President Warns Against Interference from Abroad... 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
10. (SBU) President Nazarbayev has spoken out several 
times to warn against violations of the law in the 
upcoming elections.  Some of his comments have directly 
accused the opposition, such as his September 7 remarks to 
the press that he assumed the opposition had asked former 
President Clinton for money, despite the fact that foreign 
funding of political parties is illegal.  Speaking about 
recently-rejected NGO legislation at the Civic Forum on 
September 12, Nazarbayev stated "They [parliament] have 
seen the dangers that arose in neighboring countries when 
foreign NGOs insolently pumped in money and destabilized 
society. The state was defenseless against this and what 
is happening now in these countries you all know very 
well." 
 
11. (SBU) In comments to the media after taking his Kazakh 
language test at the CEC on September 14, Nazarbayev 
underscored the importance of September 10 decree on 
transparency and fairness of the upcoming elections.  He 
highlighted the fact that the decree tasks law enforcement 
with making sure that candidates, their representatives, 
and international and local NGOs all observe the law. "We 
won't allow any interference into the country's internal 
affairs via funding to political parties and public 
organizations, or via support to any candidate by 
international or local NGOs - it is banned in our 
Constitution," Nazarbayev said.  He echoed the same idea 
in his September 14 remarks at the Asar party congress, 
saying that Kazakhstan will not let foreign NGOs violate 
its laws, and that counter-actions against such violations 
shall not be considered as a violation of anyone's rights. 
 
 
... And Issues Decree on Free and Fair Elections 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
12. (U) As reported reftel, on September 9 President 
Nazarbayev issued a decree providing for "Measures on 
Realization of Citizens' Electoral Rights."  The measures 
include realization of citizens' constitutional rights to 
elect and to be elected, timely financing the election, 
prompt response to complaints about violations of the 
election legislation, assistance provided by local akims 
to election commissions with compiling voters' lists, 
accreditation of foreign observers and representatives of 
mass media, and the maintenance of security and order by 
the Interior Ministry. 
 
Disagreement among Pro-Presidential Parties 
------------------------------------------- 
 
13. (SBU) There have been some signs of discord among pro- 
presidential parties.  Channel 31 reported that acting 
Otan chairman B. Zhumagulov claimed that he had been named 
Chairman of the President's campaign headquarters. 
However, other sources close to the Presidential 
Administration reported that other politicians, including 
Dariga Nazarbayeva, are being considered for this post. In 
 
 
the meantime, all five major pro-presidential parties -- 
Otan, Asar, DPK, Agrarian and Civic -- have sent 
representatives to work at campaign HQ. 
 
Bloc Forms to Support Nazarbayev 
-------------------------------- 
 
14. (U) At its September 14 congress, the Asar party 
-headed by first daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva - voted 
unanimously to support Nazarbayev's intention to run for 
reelection and to join the "People's Coalition of 
Kazakhstan" electoral bloc.  President Nazarbayev attended 
the congress; in his remarks praised Asar as a modern 
party with "good prospects." 
 
"For a Just Kazakhstan" Demands Fair Elections 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
15. (U) At it September 10 congress in Almaty where it 
nominated Tuyakbay, the "For a Just Kazakhstan" movement 
adopted two resolutions demanding fair and free 
presidential elections and the immediate release of 
Galymzhan Zhakiyanov.  The resolution on elections calls 
for an end to harassment, intimidation and repression of 
opposition activists all over the country and for freedom 
of speech and mass media.  It also demands equal access 
for opposition forces to state TV channels Khabar and 
Kazakhstan-1, the inclusion of opposition representatives 
in election commissions at every level, the abolition of 
e-voting, the participation of local and international 
election observers, and an end to the use of 
"administrative resources" to put pressure on voters. 
 
16. (SBU) In a September 14 interview with Kommersant 
newspaper, Tuyakbay warned Russia not to count on 
Nazarbayev.  "[Russia] should count not on an individual, 
but on the country as a whole.  Tomorrow if the United 
States puts pressure on [Nazarbayev] through `Kazakhgate,' 
nobody can predict how he will act." 
 
Survey of Electorate 
-------------------- 
 
17. (SBU) The turnout in the upcoming presidential 
elections will be 73.9%, according to a poll conducted by 
the FJK-affiliated Center for Social Technologies (CST) in 
30 cities and oblasts.  The CST questioned 2,000 people of 
various ethnic origins.  According to the survey, 11.8% 
will not vote and 11.2% have not made up their minds. 
More than 80% of rural residents plan to vote.  The 
highest numbers of people not planning to vote are in 
Astana, Almaty, and Atyrau Oblast (from 19 to 28%).  In 
Almaty, 56% of residents plan to vote and 14% have not 
decided. 
 
18. (SBU) According to a late August poll by the 
Association of Political Scientists (ASIP), 57.1% of city 
residents and 64.2% of rural residents expressed their 
willingness to vote.  One-third of the 2,513 people 
questioned were ready to support Nazarbayev, and less than 
3% expressed support for opposition candidate Zharmakhan 
Tuyakbay. 
 
Several New NGOs to Monitor Elections 
------------------------------------- 
 
19. (U) On September 5, a group of well-known human rights 
advocates, journalists, and sociologists announced the 
creation of the "For a Fair Election" election monitoring 
group.  Kazakhstani Human Rights Bureau head Yevgeniy 
Zhovtis stated "We belong to neither the opposition nor 
the government."  Other well-known participants include 
independent journalist Sergey Duvanov, political scientist 
Sabit Zhusupov, and journalist Ibrash Nusupbayev.  Duvanov 
stated that in addition to monitoring the elections, the 
group will examine why people do not want to vote. 
Duvanov also said that the movement would seek grants from 
foreign organizations in order to remain independent of 
all sides. 
 
20. (U) Fourteen local NGOs have united to form the 
"League of Kazakhstan Voters," with the aim of impartial 
monitoring the upcoming presidential election.  Natalya 
Chumakova, director of the Almaty Center for the Support 
of Democracy and wife of DCK activist Petr Svoik, 
 
 
announced the creation of the new organization at a 
September 13 press conference in Almaty.  The league 
intends to collect donations, but not from individuals or 
organizations affiliated with political parties. 
 
21. (U) On September 15, another group of well-known 
public figures announced the creation of a public 
committee to monitor the upcoming elections.  This group 
is thought to be closer to the GOK than the others noted 
above.  Participants include well-known poet and 
Kazakhstani representative to UNESCO Olzhas Suleymenov, 
Senator Kuanysh Sultanov, Director of the National Library 
Murat Auezov, Director of the Uighur Theater Murat 
Akhmadiev, President of "Channel-31" Media Holding 
Armanzhan Baytasov, Chairman of Cinematography Union Igor 
Vovnyanko, Editor-in-chief of the Central Asia Monitor 
weekly newspaper Bigeldy Gabdullin, and President of the 
Academy of Nutrition Turegeldy Sharmanov. 
 
ORDWAY 
 
 
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