US embassy cable - 05VILNIUS986

UNCLAS VILNIUS 000986 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR CA/VO/F/P, CA/FPP, EUR/NB 
FRANKFURT FOR RCO - RJBROWN 
COPENHAGEN FOR DHS - LPARAS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: CVIS, KFRD, LH, HT43 
SUBJECT:  VILNIUS BEGINS YEAR-LONG B1/B2 VALIDATION STUDY 
 
REF: VILNIUS 410 
 
1. SUMMARY: We have begun a year-long validation study of 
Lithuanian B1/B2 visa applicants to determine the overstay 
rate for the period November 2004 to November 2005.  We 
have consulted with CA/FPP to ensure that our study will be 
statistically valid and produce comprehensive information 
to help guide future visa adjudication decisions.  By 
performing this study, we are following through on our 
promise to the GOL to reassess Lithuania's overstay rate as 
part of the Visa Waiver Roadmap process.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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New Validation Study 
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2. We have started work on a validation study of all issued 
B1/B2 visas for Lithuanian applicants during the year-long 
period between November 2004 and November 2005.  This study 
will provide us with an approximate overstay rate, within a 
small margin of error, for all Lithuanian business and 
tourist visitors over an extensive period of time.  The 
study will also provide statistical results by demographic 
group, such as by age, region of residence, and occupation, 
and will thereby help improve our adjudication decision- 
making. 
 
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Methodology 
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3. We are implementing this validation study for the first 
time in a "rolling" fashion -- i.e., we will perform checks 
continuously, rather than performing a one-time study that 
requires a large number of man-hours at a fixed time.  A 
rolling validation study offers the advantages of increased 
flexibility for our staff, continuous data on visa use, and 
decreased numbers of cases that cannot be determined. 
 
4. We will issue an estimated 3700 total B1/B2 visas to 
Lithuanian citizens during the time period of the study. 
We estimate our maximum overstay rate at 20%, which 
requires a minimum sample size of 682.  In consultation 
with CA/FPP, we have set our sampling interval at 1/5.  We 
therefore are checking the return of every fifth randomly 
selected case, which will produce a sample size of 
approximately 740.  This sample size will provide results 
with a standard error of well less than 5% at a 95% 
confidence interval.  We are using the Ad Hoc Template and 
database program provided by FPP to draw a random sample 
and to conduct the study. 
 
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Comment: Important Element of the Visa Waiver Roadmap 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
5. We are following through on our promise to the GOL, as 
part of our Visa Waiver Roadmap agreement (reftel), to 
perform a new, detailed validation study with data after 
Lithuania's May 2004 accession to the European Union.  This 
study will provide a reliable, accurate overstay rate for 
Lithuanian B1/B2 applicants to evaluate Lithuania's 
progress on reaching the requirements for the Visa Waiver 
Program.  Such data will bolster our public diplomacy 
efforts to encourage Lithuanians to use their visas 
properly.