US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN1692

UNCLAS YEREVAN 001692 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN AND DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, AM 
SUBJECT:  MORE THAN 750,000 VOTES NEEDED TO PASS 
CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM 
 
1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect 
accordingly. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
NOVEMBER 20 LIKELY DATE FOR REFERENDUM 
-------------------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) President Robert Kocharian and the members of 
the ruling Coalition parties have preliminarily set 
November 20 as the date for a referendum on the package 
of proposed constitutional amendments.  (Note: 
November was the deadline set by the Parliamentary 
Assembly of the Council of Europe for this reform 
(Resolution 1458).  End Note.)  Given opposition plans 
to call on the public either to boycott or vote against 
the referendum, the GOAM and the governing coalition 
will need to campaign hard if the referendum is to have 
any chance of passing. 
 
----------------------------------- 
CEC LISTS NEARLY 2.3 MILLION VOTERS 
----------------------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) According to the Armenian Central Electoral 
Commission (CEC) there are at least 2,286,188 
registered voters in the county.  (Note:  Although the 
CEC does not provide a total number of registered 
voters, they do provide numbers of registered voters 
for each of the 41 Territorial Electoral Commissions 
(TEC).  The minimum total number of registered voters 
in Armenia, 2,286,188, was calculated by adding the 
number of voters from each TEC, but does not include 
Armenian citizens who live abroad or members of the 
military.  End Note.)   According to the CEC, 2,339,704 
people voted in the 2003 presidential elections. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
MORE THAN 750,000 VOTES NEEDED TO PASS 
-------------------------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) Armenia's current constitution requires an 
exceptionally high number of votes to amend it. 
Article 113 of the current Constitution states that, 
"proposed legislation submitted to a referendum shall 
be considered to have been passed if it receives more 
than fifty percent of the votes, but not less than one 
third of the number of registered voters."  This means 
that the referendum must not only receive more than 50 
percent of the votes of those who come to the polls but 
also that at least 762,063 people must vote for the 
referendum.   (Note:  There are current efforts 
underway to update the voters' lists, so the current 
minimum number of registered voters, 2,286,188, may 
possibly be revised up or down, which would alter the 
number of votes needed to pass the referendum.  End 
Note.) 
EVANS