US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN1690

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001690 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR DRL AND EUR/CACEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, AM 
SUBJECT:  RADICAL OPPOSITION PARTY SPLITS OVER 
"REVOLUTION" 
 
 
(U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect 
accordingly. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (SBU) On August 30 Armenia's radical opposition 
Republic party split, ending a year of increasingly 
vocal disagreements between pro-Western party leader 
Aram Z. Sargsian and pro-Russian Albert Bazeyan (former 
party chairman and former Yerevan mayor).  Despite the 
split (both Sargsian and Bazeyan are members of the 
National Assembly) and loss of some regional party 
structures, we expect that Sargsian will be able to 
hold the Republic party together, while strengthening 
its ideological unity.  End Summary. 
 
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SHOUTING REVOLUTION DOES NOT CAUSE ONE 
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2. (SBU) On August 30, seven of the fifteen-member 
ruling board of Armenia's radical opposition Republic 
party expressed their disagreement with the party 
leader Aram Z. Sargsian by leaving the party. 
Following this Albert Bazeyan and Vagharshak 
Harutyunyan (another member of the ruling board and 
former Defense Minister) released sharply critical 
statements, saying that recent Republic party positions 
were unacceptable -- in particular the party's stated 
hopes to resolve the internal problems of the country 
with foreign (i.e., U.S.) assistance, the unrealistic 
evaluation of the existing political situation, and 
regular, "empty promises" of revolution.  Bazeyan's 
breakaway from the Republic party (although he remains 
part of the Justice Bloc) leaves Sargsian as the sole 
Republic Party member in the 131-seat National 
Assembly.  (Note:  Since Sargsian is continuing his 
boycott of the National Assembly, this has little real 
relevance.  End Note.) 
 
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PARTY CLAIMS BREAKAWAY WAS ON GOVERNMENT ORDERS 
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3. (SBU) Bazeyan claimed that 75 percent the regional 
and 50 percent of the primary structures of the 6000 
member party had walked out with the break-away 
leadership.  Sargsian, however, insisted that the 
defection was minimal, and hinted that Bazeyan, who did 
not like Sargsian's pro-Western political orientation, 
was acting on the government's orders.  We expect that, 
despite the organizational losses including regional 
offices in Gyumri, Arabkir, Ashtarak and Etchmiadzin, 
Sargsian will be able to keep the party together, and 
strengthen its ideological unity. 
 
4. (SBU) Republic Party members Artak Zeynalyan and 
Gegham Harutyunyan told us that, in the party's 
opinion, Bazeyan's move was "orchestrated by the 
authorities."  They also claimed that not only has 
there not been a major party defection, but that people 
are joining the party "to express their support."  A 
USAID implementer also insisted that Bazeyan's comments 
about the outflow were false, only Bazeyan's personal 
network of friends and relatives left the party, 
according to the implementer.  He noted, howeer, that 
Aram Sargsian is currently touring the regions to 
ensure regional support for the party.  The only major 
fight, according to the implementer, is around the 
Gyumri branch of the party, where support is about even 
for Sargsian and Bazeyan. 
 
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A GROWING CONFLICT THAT BLEW UP 
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5. (SBU) Disagreements between Aram Sargsian and Albert 
Bazeyan are not new.  Until recently the Republic had 
two de facto leaders:  Bazeyan, the chairman and 
organizational party leader, and Sargsian, the 
President and "spiritual" party leader.  Bazeyan 
stepped down from his post in the spring of 2005 as 
Sargsian declared a total break with Russia, and a 
movement to adopt Western democratic values via a 
democratic revolution. 
 
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COMMENT:  WHAT NEXT? 
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6. (SBU) Party member Artak Zeynalyan claimed that 
Bazeyan had hindered any "decisive action" that the 
Republic Party had planned, and with Bazeyen out of the 
way, the Republic Party is ready to start "acting." 
Although the Republic Party continues to call for 
imminent revolution, however, it has few concrete 
allies in sight (despite inaccurate press reports 
citing a proposed alliance between the Armenian 
National Movement and the Republic Party), and 
revolution does not appear to be in the cards any time 
soon. 
EVANS