US embassy cable - 05AMMAN7500

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 007500 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, KPAL, JO 
SUBJECT: EAST BANK NATIONALISTS WANT "DEMOCRACY," BUT ON 
THEIR TERMS 
 
REF: A. AMMAN 7498 
     B. AMMAN 6898 
 
Classified By: CDA Daniel Rubinstein for Reasons 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  East Bankers sometimes complain to us that 
"their country" is being taken over by "minority groups" 
(i.e., Jordanians of Palestinian origin).  While some East 
Bank nationalists claim they support greater democratization, 
what they seem to really want is political freedom for "true 
Jordanians" only.  Their stiff resistance to greater 
political participation by West Bankers will likely translate 
into an icy reception for the upcoming National Agenda for 
reform if it provides for any expansion of 
Palestinian-Jordanian political representation.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
2.  (SBU) Poloffs met September 11 with 15 self-described 
"nationalists," all East Bankers, at their request to discuss 
the current political situation in Jordan.  The group 
included three former members of parliament, sheikhs from the 
Bani Sakher, Al-Hajaya and Sahab tribes, a retired army 
brigadier general, and two professors from Jordanian 
universities.  Dr. Ahmad Al-Abbadi, one of the former MPs and 
a published historian with a degree from Cambridge 
University, served as the primary spokesman for the group. 
 
3.  (C) Abbadi and his East Bank colleagues stressed that 
they were "brothers" with the Palestinian people, and sought 
good relations with "other groups" in Jordan.  Nevertheless, 
they complained - at times bitterly - that "real Jordanians" 
were increasingly being excluded from positions of political 
power, and that GOJ policies favored what they called 
"minorities," meaning Palestinian-Jordanians.  (In fact, East 
Bankers are now the minority in Jordan.)  From their 
perspective, the current cabinet was dominated by members of 
"minority groups."  At one point, several claimed that only 6 
of the 28 cabinet ministers were of "pure" Jordanian 
ancestry, though they backed down when asked to explain this 
claim.  (NOTE: Post calculates that only 6 members of the 
cabinet were born west of the Jordan River or are descended 
from West Bankers.  A few other ministers can trace their 
distant roots to areas outside of modern-day Jordan; 
consequently some hard-liners don't consider them as "true" 
Jordanians even when their families have been here for a 
century or more.  END NOTE.)  The group had particularly 
harsh words for Deputy Prime Minister Marwan Muasher, saying 
that he was "despised" by "real Jordanians."  (Muasher is the 
scion of a Christian family that has been on the East Bank 
since the time of the Muslim conquest.  We suspect their beef 
with Muasher has less to do with his origins or faith than 
with his reputation as a defender of Palestinian rights on 
both banks of the Jordan.) 
 
4.  (C) When poloff pointed out that a large majority in 
parliament was of East Bank origin, the group replied that 
most of them were "corrupt" and had sold out their 
countrymen.  "Everyone knows the current parliament does not 
represent or care about the true Jordanian people," Abbadi 
said.  Citing a recent survey by the Center for Strategic 
Studies that 77% of Jordanians fear punishment or retribution 
for public criticism of the government (down from 83.2% in 
2004), he claimed that many East Bankers shared his disdain 
for the GOJ, but were afraid to voice their opinions.  "If 
people were allowed to say what they feel, you would 
understand how deep opposition to the government by true 
Jordanians runs," Abbadi said.  Similarly, retired Brigadier 
General Ali Abdul Jawwad Al-Tahrawi alleged that a high level 
of animosity exists throughout the military (whose members 
and leaders are overwhelmingly East Bankers) toward the 
government.  (Comment:  Post has seen only sporadic evidence 
of this.  End Comment.) 
 
5.  (C) Along with greater freedom of expression, Abbadi and 
his group called for "democratic reform" to help resolve 
their grievances against the government.  In this context, 
they said that the Prime Minister should be chosen by the 
parliament or directly elected by "true Jordanians," rather 
than appointed by the King.  While Abbadi claimed allegiance 
to the King, he nevertheless referred to King Abdullah I 
(Jordan's first monarch) as "an invader," and remarked that 
the Hashemite "social compact" with the Jordanian people had 
been broken.  In this group's opinion, King Abdullah should 
devolve most of his powers and limit his role in government 
to that of a European monarch.  (NOTE:  As for Queen Rania, 
Abbadi and others were almost savage in their comments 
against her.  END NOTE.)  The authority of parliament should 
be expanded, the group continued, with an end to all quotas 
and "interference by the government and the intelligence 
service" in electoral campaigns.  These measures, if 
implemented, would help "true Jordanians" to reclaim their 
country from the control of "outsiders."  If no such reforms 
were made, Abbadi predicted that "major problems" and social 
unrest would lay ahead, along with a possible rise in 
extremist violence as East Bankers sought an outlet for their 
anger against the government and the monarchy. 
6.  (C) COMMENT:  While Abbadi and his colleagues are not 
fully representative of the broader East Bank community, 
neither are their grievances very unusual.  Resentment 
against the government among non-elite East Bankers, who see 
themselves as losing ground both economically and politically 
to West Bankers, may be very real and is likely growing, 
though it does not pose a significant threat to regime 
stability in the short term.  The intent of these die-hard 
nationalists' calls for reform is clear -- full political and 
voting rights (and thus political power) should be limited to 
"true" Jordanians (i.e., not those of Palestinian origin). 
Consequently, if the royal commission for the National Agenda 
releases, as expected (refs A, B), recommendations in the 
coming month that expand political participation and 
representation for Palestinian-Jordanians, it will likely 
meet an icy, if not hostile, reception by many East Bank 
Jordanians.  END COMMENT. 
RUBINSTEIN