US embassy cable - 05AMMAN7498

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 007498 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, ECON, KDEM, JO 
SUBJECT: DEPUTY PM MUASHER BRIEFINGS HINT AT AMBITIOUS 
 
REFORM AGENDA 
 
REF: A. AMMAN 6898 
     B. AMMAN 6612 
     C. AMMAN 5230 
     D. AMMAN 4125 
     E. AMMAN 2427 
     F. AMMAN 2378 
     G. AMMAN 2043 
 
Classified By: CDA Daniel Rubinstein for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C)  Summary:  The current draft of the National Agenda 
advocates a concrete and highly ambitious agenda for 
political reform and for social and economic development.  It 
includes electoral reforms (still under discussion) that 
would make the system more representative of the population, 
and would likely benefit Jordan's leading Islamist party, 
though it is not clear yet how much.  For the reforms to be 
enacted by legislation, Jordan's political establishment 
would have to be persuaded to reform away some of its power. 
News that the Agenda's champion, Deputy PM Muasher, is 
engaging  the Islamic Action Front on electoral reform 
suggests he is seeking a tactical alliance against the 
anti-reform elements in the East-Banker dominated Parliament, 
likely a necessary and well-measured step to outflank reform 
opponents.  End summary. 
 
2.  (C)  Charge and DCM met September 12 with Deputy PM 
Marwan Muasher, who is leading the 26-member royal commission 
charged with drafting a national agenda for comprehensive 
reform.  Muasher confirmed that the draft is almost ready for 
presentation to the King, and will endorse &principles8 
that will need to be enacted as legislation.  The most 
controversial recommendations, those on new elections and 
parties laws, are still under discussion. 
 
Engaging  Islamic Action Front on Electoral Reform 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
3.  (C)  On the new elections law, Muasher confirmed earlier 
reports (ref a) that the agenda will recommend that each 
voter be able to give a second ballot to a national party 
list.  Muasher referred to discussions with  leaders of  the 
Islamic Action Front (which controls 17-20 votes in the 
110-member Chamber of Deputies) over how many seats in a 
restructured parliament would be selected from the national 
parties list, and how many would remain for representatives 
of geographic constituencies, as under the current system. 
Muasher speculated that discussions with the IAF would result 
in  about twenty percent of the seats going to national-list 
candidates.  (Post has also heard  from Muasher,s staff that 
the National Agenda might propose cutting the number of 
members of parliament from the current 110 to just 80.)   At 
the same time,  Muasher indicated that his staff has gamed 
out how many seats the IAF might win under various electoral 
system  scenarios, as part of his effort to calibrate how 
much he can afford to give the IAF in exchange for their 
support. 
 
4.  (C)  COMMENT: The IAF - whose leadership includes both 
East and West Bankers - will press for as many national list 
seats as possible.  It has the only strong national party 
organization in Jordan, and would certainly benefit from this 
reform.  Palestinian-Jordanians would also gain more 
parliamentary representation than they now have. Currently, 
only 17 of the 110 members of the Chamber of Deputies are of 
Palestinian origin.  END COMMENT) 
 
5.  (C)  Muasher conceded to  CDA that the GoJ had not yet 
settled upon  a public roll-out strategy for the National 
Agenda.  COMMENT: The engagement with the IAF, however, leads 
us to conclude that Muasher understands that the Agenda will 
stand or fall on the government's ability to secure support 
from broad sections  the public and  the political class.  It 
is likely key decisions will be made after the King returns 
from the U.S. September 23.  In a briefing with donor 
government representatives, Muasher admitted &powerful 
people8 will oppose the Agenda,s political reform 
proposals, but &ordinary people8 will be pleased. 
 
6.  (C)  From a less upbeat perspective, Ali al-Ayed, a key 
advisor and Director of Information at the Prime Ministry, 
told poloff September 17 that he was concerned  Muasher had 
not paid enough attention on how to &market8 the Agenda 
once released to the public.  Ayed acknowledged that drumming 
up support for the Agenda among traditionalist East Bankers 
could be very difficult, and that someone besides Muasher ) 
who is disliked by some, in part, for his advocacy of 
Palestinian rights ) would need to serve as the Agenda,s 
&face8 before this constituency. 
 
Wider Briefings Provide Some Details on a Broad Agenda 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
7.  (SBU)  Muasher also provided briefings on the Agenda to 
donor government representatives (including USAID Mission 
Director) and to the media September 15.  In these 
presentations, Muasher described a one-thousand page 
document, with a one-hundred page summary, all in Arabic, 
with a shorter English press kit.  The project will be 
presented to the King in late September, and released in 
October. 
Political Life 
-------------- 
 
8.  (C)  Muasher said he believed the Agenda,s 
recommendations could be enacted as laws, rather than as 
constitutional amendments.  (NOTE: By our reading of the 
Jordanian constitution, this is true of the Agenda 
initiatives we have heard of, except for the rumored 
reduction of the number of seats in the Chamber of Deputies, 
and for a proposal to refer disputed elections to the 
judiciary, rather than to parliament as is currently the 
case.)  The principal  reform law would be a kind of &Bill 
of Rights8 that would set out political principles from 
which would flow further legislation on elections, political 
parties, media, women's empowerment, NGOs, civil service 
reform, and other issues. 
 
Development 
----------- 
 
9.  (C)  The Agenda would also set out priorities for 
investment, which Muasher  did not, however, specify in these 
briefings.  The document would record current baselines in a 
number of development sectors, call for the formal launch of 
development plans in 2007, and set target measurements for 
2012 and 2017 for indicators such as unemployment, national 
debt, deficits, etc.  Muasher mentioned in his briefing to 
donors that the plan assumes seven percent real GDP growth 
per annum over the ten-year life of the plan.  (COMMENT: 
Although Jordan exceeded this target in 2004 and probably 
will in 2005, assuming such growth over ten years strikes 
Post as quite optimistic.)  Muasher said ministries would be 
charged with detailed responsibilities for measuring and 
reporting their performance; he admitted that only a few 
currently have this capacity,  and noted that the GOJ will 
look to donors for technical assistance in this regard. 
 
10.  (SBU)  Beyond political reform, Muasher briefed donors 
on the Agenda,s inclusion of tax reform, highlighting plans 
to broaden the tax base, reduce the number of special 
sectoral tax regimes, and flatten general rates to achieve a 
15-20 percent unified rate. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
11.  (C)  Until Muasher's briefings this week, some observers 
in Amman thought it likely the National Agenda Commission 
would present recommendations that left the fundamentals of 
politics here untouched.  Now it is becoming clear that the 
Agenda will aim to gore the oxen of some important East Bank 
traditionalist politicians.  If the draft that reaches King 
Abdullah,s desk in late September still includes the 
proposal for the election of anything near twenty percent of 
MPs from national lists, the King will have to make a hard 
choice:  either confront anti-reform forces that are among 
the monarchy's oldest supporters, or water-down a reform 
agenda whose outlines are now widely known.  If the King opts 
for a showdown, he will need to engage in some  heavy and 
skillful politicking with a parliamentary establishment that 
only stands to lose from reform, or, as local  political 
observers are beginning to speculate, exercise his 
constitutional option to suspend parliament and push forward 
the reform agenda by royal decree. 
RUBINSTEIN